Garp Modeline göre Kocakarı Armudunun (Crataegus microphylla C. Koch) Günümüz ve Gelecekteki Potansiyel Yayılışının Tahmini

Büşra Aksu; Ömer K.  Örücü

doi:10.53463/ecopers.20220106

Authors

Büşra Aksu Suleyman Demirel University, Graduate School of Aplied Science, Department of Landscape Architecture Isparta/TURKIYE https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3981-236X
Ömer K. Örücü Suleyman Demirel University, Faculty Of Architecture, Department Of Landscape Architecture, Isparta/TÜRKİYE https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2162-7553

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53463/ecopers.20220106

Keywords:

Climate Change, Distribution modelling, Rosaceaea, Garp, CMIP6, MIROC-ES2L

Abstract

Modeling the current and future distribution areas of species using machine learning technique has become one of the important studies in terms of revealing how much the distribution areas of plants will be affected by climate change. By using point data showing the areas where the species exist and the layers created by using the bioclimatic data of these areas, the current and future potential distribution areas of the species can be determined with the GARP program according to different climate scenarios. In the article study carried out in this context, in order to determine how the distribution area of Crataegus microphylla C. Koch from Rosaceae Family will be affected by climate change, based on the 6IPCC report, the potential distribution area of the species for the 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 periods was modeled according to the scenarios of SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5 using MIROC-ES2L, one of the CMIP6 models and the spatial and positional differences between the present and future distribution areas of the species were revealed by the change analysis. In this study, in which the current potential distribution area of this species belonging to the Rosaceae family and how it will be affected by climate change in the future, it is estimated that there will be a decrease in the distribution area of C. microphylla in both periods of the SSP2 4.5 scenario.

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