Abstract
This paper explores the range of likely and potential progress on poverty eradication in fragile states to 2030. Using the International Futures model and recently released 2011 International Comparison Program data, this paper calculates current (2015) poverty for a US$1.90 poverty line, and subsequently runs three scenarios. The estimates suggest that there are 485 million poor in fragile states in 2015, a 33.5 per cent poverty rate. This paper’s Base Case scenario results in a forecasted 22.8 per cent poverty rate in fragile states by 2030. The most optimistic scenario yields a 13.1 per cent poverty rate for this group of countries (257 million). An optimistic scenario reflecting political constraints in fragile states yields a 19.1 per cent poverty rate (376 million). Even under the most optimistic circumstances, fragile states will almost certainly be home to hundreds of millions of poor in 2030, suggesting that the world must do things dramatically differently if we are to reach the high hanging fruit and truly ‘leave no one behind’ in the next fifteen years of development.