Modelling Decarbonization Pathways in the Power Sector in Developing Countries: The Case of Dominican Republic
Description
The Dominican Republic's ambitious targets for renewable energy integration, aiming for 30% renewable electricity generation by 2030, encounter challenges in meeting rising electricity demand and balancing with conventional energy plants.
The OSeMOSYS modelling analysis revealed that while the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario achieves the 30% target by 2030, it falls short of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The Net-Zero (NET-ZERO) and Renewable Energy Restriction (RE-50%-RESTR) scenarios, which prioritize total decarbonization, demonstrate significant growth in installed capacity, exceeding three times the installed capacity in the BAU scenario. Costs vary, with RE-50%-RESTR being the highest, followed by NET-ZERO, and the least expensive being BAU.
Energy sovereignty emerges as a critical consideration in all scenarios, with both NET-ZERO scenarios showcasing a transition by eliminating fuel imports and positively impacting the country's economy.
The study also underscores the limitations of the modelling approach in evaluating system flexibility and emphasizes the need for regulatory incentives to boost renewable penetration.
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2024-01-31_Dominican Republic Case - Manases Mercedes.pdf
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References
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