The Roles of Emerging Technology and Modeling Techniques in Operational Ecological Forecasting at NOAA

Abstract

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is uniquely positioned to apply its considerable forecasting capabilities and experience toward predicting the response of ecosystems and their components to environmental changes. With the recent frequency and severity of episodic ecosystem events and the associated increase in public awareness and concern, never has the demand for such forecasts been higher. NOAA has established an Ecological Forecasting Roadmap to coordinate and apply its expertise, capacity, and partnerships to advance the field of ecological forecasting and increase the quantity and quality of timely and actionable information available to resource managers, emergency responders, and health officials, so that whenever possible, preventative or mitigating measures may be taken. Establishing a national ecological forecasting capacity with regionally tailored approaches requires cutting-edge observing systems and modeling techniques. This paper outlines some of the specific areas in which emerging technology is critically important to understanding ecosystem changes and enabling ecological forecasting.