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The Probabilistic Method of Failure Analysis to Transmission Facilities under Ice Storms

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Abstract:

Based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT), the Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPDs) of meteorological variables wind speed and freezing precipitation is simulated. Considering the dependence of them, a joint probability distribution is calculated by the Copula function. Further more, the probability distributions of ice loads and wind loads on transmission lines are analyzed, and the failure probability of broken lines and collapsed towers under ice storms is calculated. The accuracy and validity of this analytical method is demonstrated with comparison between numerical results and the historical datas of Chen Zhou power transmission systems.

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Info:

Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 37-38)

Pages:

1525-1528

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.37-38.1525

Citation:

Cite this paper

Online since:

November 2010

Authors:

Wen Jun Xu, Hong Ming Yang, Ming Yong Lai, Shuang Wang

Keywords:

Broken Lines, Collapsed Towers, Extreme Value Theory (EVT), Ice Thickness, Joint Probability Distribution

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