Replication data for: Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?

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Blanchard_dataset_complete			10/12/2019 06:38:PM
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Project Citation:

Blanchard, Olivier. Replication data for: Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis? Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2018. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E114008V1

Project Description

Summary: Fifty years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is no long-run trade-off between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and inflation. Both propositions have been challenged. The paper reviews the arguments and the macro and micro evidence against each. It concludes that, in each case, the evidence is suggestive, but not conclusive. Policymakers should keep the natural rate hypothesis as their null hypothesis, but keep an open mind and put some weight on the alternatives.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      B22 History of Economic Thought: Macroeconomics
      B31 History of Economic Thought: Individuals
      E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
      E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
      E52 Monetary Policy

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Published Versions

V1 [2019-10-12]

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