MAKING PLANET NINE: A SCATTERED GIANT IN THE OUTER SOLAR SYSTEM

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Published 2016 July 22 © 2016. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.
, , Citation Benjamin C. Bromley and Scott J. Kenyon 2016 ApJ 826 64 DOI 10.3847/0004-637X/826/1/64

0004-637X/826/1/64

ABSTRACT

Correlations in the orbits of several minor planets in the outer solar system suggest the presence of a remote, massive Planet Nine. With at least 10 times the mass of the Earth and a perihelion well beyond 100 au, Planet Nine poses a challenge to planet formation theory. Here we expand on a scenario in which the planet formed closer to the Sun and was gravitationally scattered by Jupiter or Saturn onto a very eccentric orbit in an extended gaseous disk. Dynamical friction with the gas then allowed the planet to settle in the outer solar system. We explore this possibility with a set of numerical simulations. Depending on how the gas disk evolves, scattered super-Earths or small gas giants settle on a range of orbits, with perihelion distances as large as 300 au. Massive disks that clear from the inside out on million-year timescales yield orbits that allow a super-Earth or gas giant to shepherd the minor planets as observed. A massive planet can achieve a similar orbit in a persistent, low-mass disk over the lifetime of the solar system.

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1. INTRODUCTION

The orbital alignment of minor planets located well beyond Neptune, including Sedna and 2012 VP113, inspired Trujillo & Sheppard (2014) to invoke a massive, unseen planet orbiting at roughly 200 au from the Sun. Expanding on this analysis, Batygin & Brown (2016; see also Brown & Batygin 2016) propose a more distant planet that maintains the apsidal alignment for a set of six trans-Neptunian objects. With a mass more than 10 times that of the Earth, this planet would have a semimajor axis between 300 to 1500 au, an eccentricity within the range of roughly 0.2–0.8, an inclination below ${40}^{^\circ }$, and an apsis that is anti-aligned with the 6 minor planets. Subsequent work by Fienga et al. (2016) and Holman & Payne (2016), using precise Cassini radio ranging data of Saturn, places constraints on the perturber's orbital phase.

The prospect of a Planet Nine lurking in the outer solar system provides a new opportunity to test our understanding of planet formation theory. Various mechanisms—coagulation (Kenyon & Bromley 2015), gravitational instability (Helled et al. 2014, and references therein), and scattering (Bromley & Kenyon 2014)—can place a massive planet far from the host star. Aside from a direct detection of Planet Nine, testing these ideas requires numerical simulations which predict the properties of planets as a function of initial conditions in the protoplanetary disk.

Previous calculations of gas giant planet formation (Rasio & Ford 1996; Weidenschilling & Marzari 1996; Thommes et al. 1999; Ford et al. 2005; Moorhead & Adams 2005; Levison & Morbidelli 2007; Chatterjee et al. 2008; Bromley & Kenyon 2011) demonstrate that growing gas giants clear their orbital domains by scattering super-Earths or more massive planets to large distances. If the surface density of the protoplanetary disk is small, scattered planets are eventually ejected. For disks with larger surface densities, however, dynamical friction damps a scattered planet to lower eccentricity (Dokuchaev 1964; Rephaeli & Salpeter 1980; Takeda 1988; Ostriker 1999; Thommes et al. 1999; Kominami & Ida 2002; Muto et al. 2011; Grishin & Perets 2015). Bromley & Kenyon (2014) used simple models of disk–planet interactions to show that this mechanism plausibly circularizes the orbits of massive planets at 100–200 au from the central star.

The Batygin & Brown (2016) analysis poses a new challenge to scattering models. Although they propose a moderately eccentric orbit for their massive perturber, the planet has a semimajor axis beyond 300–400 au. Our goal here is to show under what conditions a scattered planet can achieve this orbit through dynamical friction with a gas disk. We consider a wide range of planet and disk configurations, numerically simulate outcomes of these models, and assess how well they explain a Planet Nine in the outer solar system.

2. METHOD

To explore the possibility of a scattered origin for Planet Nine, we follow our earlier strategy (Bromley & Kenyon 2014). We choose initial conditions for planetary orbits and gas disks and a mechanism for disk dissipation. We then track the orbital evolution with the n-body integration component of our Orchestra code (Bromley & Kenyon 2006; Kenyon & Bromley 2008; Bromley & Kenyon 2011). In this section, we provide details of the disk models and an overview of the numerical method, which includes an updated treatment of dynamical friction.

2.1. The Disk Models

To set the stage for relocating a scattered planet from 5–15 au into the outer solar system, we model the Sun's gas disk with the following prescription for surface density Σ, scale height H, and midplane mass density ${\rho }_{{}_{{\rm{gas}}}}$:

Equation (1)

Equation (2)

Equation (3)

Here, ${{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}$ sets the surface density at distance ${a}_{{}_{0}}\equiv 1\,{\rm{au}}$, ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$ and ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{out}}}}$ are the inner and outer edges of the disk, and ${h}_{{}_{0}}=0.05$ establishes the scale height of the flared disk (Kenyon & Hartmann 1987; Chiang & Goldreich 1997; Andrews & Williams 2007; Andrews et al. 2009). The global surface density decay parameter $\tau =1$–10 Myr enables a homologous reduction in the surface density (Haisch et al. 2001). To allow the inner edge of the disk to expand as in a transition disk, we adopt an expansion rate ${\kappa }_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$:

Equation (4)

where the initial size of the inner cavity is ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}(0)\equiv 20\,{\rm{au}}$. Observations of transition disks (Calvet et al. 2005; Currie et al. 2008; Andrews et al. 2011; Najita et al. 2015) suggest opening rates of O(10) au Myr−1.

Toward estimating dynamical friction and gas drag, we assume that the sound speed in the gas is ${c}_{{\rm{s}}}\approx {{Hv}}_{{}_{{\rm{Kep}}}}/a$, where ${v}_{{}_{{\rm{Kep}}}}$ is the circular Keplerian speed at orbital distance a from the Sun. We also assume that both H and ${c}_{{\rm{s}}}$ are independent of time. Armed with these variables, we can determine the Mach number of a planet moving relative to the gas, and hence derive drag forces on the planet. These estimates include the effect of pressure support within the gas disk, which makes the bulk flow in the disk sub-Keplerian, with an orbital speed that is reduced from ${v}_{{}_{{\rm{Kep}}}}$ by a factor of $(1-{H}^{2}/{a}^{2})$ (e.g., Adachi et al. 1976; Weidenschilling 1977a; Youdin & Kenyon 2013).

Table 1 lists disk model parameters. We distinguish two types of disks: static and evolving. Static disks have fixed surface density profiles and small total mass, $0.002{M}_{\odot }\lt {M}_{{}_{{\rm{disk}}}}\lt 0.06{M}_{\odot }$ (2–60 ${M}_{{\rm{J}}}$, where ${M}_{{\rm{J}}}$ is the mass of Jupiter), which extend to 1600 au. These models enable us to consider the possibility of long-term (≳100 Myr) planet–disk interactions. Evolving disks extend to 800 au with larger initial surface density and mass. In the most extreme case (${{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}=1000{\rm{g}}\,{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2}$), the disk mass is half that of the Sun. Although improbable (see, e.g., Andrews et al. 2013), this extreme disk mass allows us to explore the possibility of rapid, strong orbital damping. Because dynamical friction depends on the gas density, ${\rho }_{{}_{{\rm{gas}}}}\sim {\rm{\Sigma }}/H$, we can scale results to less massive disks with smaller scale heights.

Table 1.  Disk Parameters

Name Symbol Value or Range Units
Radial length scale a0 1 au
Scale height factor ${h}_{{}_{0}}$ 0.05
static disk
Surface density ${{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}$ 2, 10, 20, 50 g cm−2
Initial inner edge ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$ 50, 100, 200 au
Outer edge ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{out}}}}$ 1600 au
evolving disk
Surface density ${{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}$ 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 g cm−2
Initial inner edge ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$ 20, 60, 100, 140, 180 au
Outer edge ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{out}}}}$ 800 au
Opening rate (${\dot{a}}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$) ${\kappa }_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$ 20, 40, 60, 80 au Myr−1
decay time τ 2, 4, $\infty $ Myr

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Our evolving model disks have large radial extent (800 au) to enhance the interaction between the gas and a scattered planet. This choice is consistent with observations of disks in young stellar associations where measured radii are commonly in the range of 400–1000 au (e.g., Andrews et al. 2009; Guilloteau et al. 2013). However, the solar system's protoplanetary disk may have been truncated from a stellar encounter if—as radiometric evidence suggests (Adams & Laughlin 2001)—the Sun formed in a more populous star cluster (Clarke & Pringle 1993; Ostriker 1994; Kenyon & Bromley 2004; Malmberg et al. 2011; Muñoz et al. 2015; Portegies Zwart 2016). Yet cluster membership does not guarantee disk truncation. Vincke et al. (2015) demonstrate that 15%–50% of extended (${a}_{{}_{{\rm{out}}}}\sim 1000$ au) protoplanetary disks can survive cluster dispersal, depending on cluster properties and the host star's location. Even if the Sun's disk was truncated, our models might still apply to a disk that had little or no flaring. Then, the central gas density dropped off less steeply with radius, enhancing the disk–planet interactions in the outer regions and compensating for a reduction in its outer radius.

Compared with the evolving models, our static disks span an even larger radial distance (1600 au), but with low surface densities and total masses that are as small as a fraction of Jupiter's mass. No such long-lived, low-mass disks are observed; however, they are challenging to detect (Andrews et al. 2009; Dent et al. 2013; Andrews 2015). Long-lived disks must survive the hard photons and winds from massive stars in the Sun's birth cluster (e.g., Adams et al. 2004; Desch 2007; Gaidos et al. 2009). Disk accretion—hot gas flowing onto the young Sun—also generates radiation that photoevaporates the disk over a wide range of orbital distances (e.g., Gorti et al. 2009, 2015; Alexander et al. 2014). Nonetheless, after the Sun leaves its birth cluster and its inner disk erodes, thereby quenching hard photons from disk accretion (e.g., Haworth et al. 2016), a long-lived reservoir of cool gas might remain. The static disk models reflect this possibility, in addition to offering a simple testbed to understand disk–planet interactions.

2.2. Scattered Planets

A planetary core scattered from the gas giant region typically undergoes a complex set of encounters with competing cores and growing giant planets (e.g., Thommes et al. 1999; Chatterjee et al. 2008; Izidoro et al. 2015). The onset of scattering occurs as planets migrate or their Hill spheres expand from accretion, causing orbits to cross. A smaller body flung on an eccentric orbit can return to experience additional strong interactions with a growing gas giant, typically leading to ejection or a merger. However, these fates may be avoided if an outwardly scattered planet's perihelion is raised by other influences such as interactions with gas (Marzari et al. 2010; Moeckel & Armitage 2012), planetesimals (Levison et al. 2008), or other cores (Ford & Chiang 2007). Similarly, the orbit of the larger scatterer can also change, preventing subsequent close encounters (e.g., Cresswell & Nelson 2008).

While previous work on orbital evolution in planet–planet scattering has mostly focussed on dynamics within the gas giant region, we expect that the long orbital period of scattered cores of interest here will lessen the likelihood of a repeated scattering. Our own simulations of gas giant formation (Bromley & Kenyon 2011), which track chaotic interactions between multiple growing cores, confirm that super-Earth-mass planets can scatter to the outer solar system on eccentric orbits and remain there for millions of years or longer without being ejected.

Here, we model only the final outcome of the scattering process, simulating planets scattered to large ($\gt 1000$ au) distances for each disk configuration in Table 1. As summarized in Table 2, each planet is assigned a mass ${m}_{\bullet }$ and mean density ${\rho }_{\bullet }$, from which we infer a physical radius, ${r}_{\bullet }$. In our orbital dynamics code, the planet is launched from a perihelion distance of ${r}_{{}_{\mathrm{peri}}}=10\,{\rm{au}}$ with a speed that would take it to a specified aphelion distance ${r}_{{}_{\mathrm{apo}}}$ if it were on a Keplerian orbit about the Sun. We track the subsequent dynamical evolution with orbital elements calculated geometrically, since the disk potential can complicate the interpretation of osculating orbital elements. While the planet's orbit typically comes close to the nominal starting aphelion, it never makes it to ${r}_{{}_{\mathrm{apo}}}$ exactly due to dynamical friction with the gas and the disk's overall gravitational potential.

Table 2.  Planet Parameters

Name Symbol Value or Range Units
Mass ${m}_{\bullet }$ 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 ${M}_{\oplus }$
Mean density ${\rho }_{\bullet }$ 1.33 g cm−3
Initial perihelion ${r}_{{}_{\mathrm{peri}}}$ 10 au
Initial aphelion ${r}_{{}_{\mathrm{apo}}}$ 1600, 2000, 2400, ..., 3600 au
Inclination i 0 rad

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2.3. Numerical Approach

To evolve planetary orbits in a gas disk, we follow Bromley & Kenyon (2014). We use the orbit integrator in our hybrid n-body-coagulation code Orchestra to calculate the trajectory of individual planets around the Sun in the midplane of the disk. We calculate disk gravity using 2000 radial bins spanning the planet's orbit, assigning a mass to each bin according to Equation (1). We initially solve the Poisson equation by numerical integration, storing the results. The saved potential is updated as the disk evolves.

To estimate acceleration from dynamical friction, we adopt a parameterization similar to Lee & Stahler (2014) in the absence of gas accretion (see also Dokuchaev 1964; Ruderman & Spiegel 1971; Ostriker 1999):

Equation (5)

where ${{\boldsymbol{v}}}_{{}_{{\rm{rel}}}}$ is the planet's velocity relative to the gas, $\mu \equiv | {{\boldsymbol{v}}}_{{}_{{\rm{rel}}}}| /{c}_{{\rm{s}}}$ is the mach number, and ${C}_{{}_{{\rm{df}}}}$ is a constant that depends on the geometry of the disk in the plane perpendicular to the planet's motion.

In evaluating the coefficient ${C}_{{}_{{\rm{df}}}}$, we previously only considered contributions from gas more distant than $H/2$ from a planet (Bromley & Kenyon 2014). Here we are less restrictive and include contributions from material closer to the planet. The drag acceleration thus has a piece from distant disk material in slab geometry (Bromley & Kenyon 2014), along with a Coulomb logarithm (e.g., Binney & Tremaine 2008):

Equation (6)

where the radius R is

Equation (7)

and

Equation (8)

is an effective sonic radius (e.g., Thun et al. 2016).

With this formulation, our goal is to map how scattered planets with large eccentricities ($e\lesssim 1$) damp to modest values ($e\sim 0.5$) when the planet moves at supersonic speeds. Once the planet achieves low eccentricity, its subsequent evolution is complicated by differential torque exchange with the disk (Goldreich & Tremaine 1980; Ward 1997) and accretion of disk material (Hoyle & Lyttleton 1939; Lee & Stahler 2011). We do not attempt to track this behavior. Our prescription underestimates dynamical friction in the subsonic and transonic regimes (see, e.g., Ostriker 1999). Thus, we follow a planet as its orbit damps, but stop the integration if it manages to fully circularize before the gas disappears.

While the main focus here is on how a scattered planet can settle beyond 300 au, we also check to see how this process impacts objects beyond the gas giant region. In several scattered planet simulations, we include 40,000 tracer particles set up on circular, coplanar orbits with semimajor axes between 20 and 80 au. For computational speed, we ignore the effects of gas on the tracers; we simplify the calculation of the planet's orbital evolution by requiring that the semimajor axis and eccentricity change linearly in time from specific starting conditions to final values that are consistent with the full disk–planet calculations. Experiments with more realistic parameterizations for a and e show that properties of the final tracer orbits are most sensitive to the average changes in a and e, and not the details of the planet's orbital evolution.

3. RESULTS

We ran over 104 simulations to map out the parameter space of disk and planet configurations. To describe our results, we first consider low-mass, static disks, which isolate the physics of dynamical damping without the complications of disk evolution. To evaluate damping outcomes over the 1–10 Myr lifetimes of typical protoplanetary disks, we then consider a set of evolving disks.

3.1. Relocation of a Scattered Planet in a Long-lived Disk

In this set of simulations, we set up static disks with low surface density (${{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}=2$–50 g cm−2), large radial extent (${a}_{{}_{{\rm{out}}}}=1600\,\mathrm{au}$), and big inner cavities (${a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}=50$–200 au). We evolve scattered planets over a time t = 100 Myr. Figure 1 shows several outcomes with planets of different masses. All planets follow the same track in ae space as they circularize; more massive planets evolve further along the track.

Figure 1.

Figure 1. Simulations of the orbital evolution of scattered planets in a static gas disk. Solid curves show the semimajor axis (a) and eccentricity (e) of four planets with various masses as they evolve over a period of 100 Myr. The legend indicates the set of disk parameters. All planets start at the same high a = 800 au and e = 0.9875 and evolve along a single path towards smaller values of a and e. circular symbols show the final outcomes after 100 Myr, labeled with planet mass. More massive planets evolve faster and progress further along the path. The gray region approximates the allowed range of a and e from Batygin & Brown (2016) for Planet Nine.

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Figure 2 illustrates how evolution depends on the disk configuration. The plot shows three separate evolutionary tracks in ae space, each corresponding to a different inner edge of the disk (${a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$). With a smaller inner edge, the disk causes a planet to settle more quickly (because there is more disk material to interact with) and closer to the Sun. The markers in the plot designate how far each planet evolves. Planets in low surface density disks make less progress along their track than those in high surface density disks.

Figure 2.

Figure 2. Orbital evolution of a planet in various configurations for a static disk. As in Figure 1, planets starting with large a and e follow specific tracks which depend on the inner edge of the disk (${a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$). Larger inner cavities allow planets to settle at larger a. For a fixed planet mass of 10 ${M}_{\oplus }$, the final location in the ae plane depends on the surface density parameter (${{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}$). In disks with higher surface density, orbits evolve more quickly and reach smaller a and e.

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These calculations establish an approximate degeneracy between mass and the surface density parameter ${{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}$ in the formula for dynamical friction acceleration (Equation (5)). As a result, the progress that a planet makes along its ae track in a fixed amount of time depends only on the product ${\text{}}{m}_{\bullet }\times {\text{}}{{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}$. Thus, data points showing the orbital evolution as a function of planet mass in Figure 1 can also represent the progress of a planet of fixed mass in disks with different surface densities. Similarly, points in Figure 2 can represent outcomes with different planet masses at fixed surface density.

If long-lived disks are responsible for settling a planet on the type of orbit inferred by Batygin & Brown (2016), then our suite of simulations suggests the following condition leads to successful Planet Nine-like outcomes:

Equation (9)

This expression applies as long as ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{out}}}}\gg {a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$. While it is only approximate, this relation suggests that a persistent, low-mass disk (${{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}\approx 0.3$ g cm−2; about a quarter of a Jupiter mass in gas) can modestly damp a scattered Neptune-size body within the age of the solar system.

3.2. Settling in an Evolving Disk

Observations indicate that the youngest stars are surrounded with opaque disks of gas and dust (see Kenyon & Hartmann 1995; Kenyon et al. 2008; Williams & Cieza 2011; Andrews 2015). Surface densities vary; the "Minimum Mass Solar Nebula" value of ${{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}\,\approx 2000$ g cm−2 (Weidenschilling 1977b; Hayashi 1981) is at the upper end of the range observed in the youngest stars (e.g., Andrews et al. 2013; Najita & Kenyon 2014). These disks globally dissipate on a timescale, τ, of millions of years (Haisch et al. 2001), and may also erode from the inside out at a rate of ${\kappa }_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}\gtrsim O(10)$ au Myr−1, as in transition disks (e.g., Andrews et al. 2011; Najita et al. 2015). The resulting behavior of a scattered planet as it settles depends sensitively on how mass is distributed in these disks as they evolve.

Figure 3 illustrates the dependence of planetary settling on disk parameters τ, ${\kappa }_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$, the initial disk surface density, and the inner disk edge. Adopting a baseline model where (${{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}}$, ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$, ${\kappa }_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$,τ) = (1000 g cm−2, 60 au, 40 au Myr−1, 4 Myr), we vary individual disk parameters for planets with masses of 15–30 ${M}_{\oplus }$, scattered to starting distances of ${r}_{{}_{\mathrm{apo}}}=2000$–2800 au. The general trends are clear. Dynamical settling to small orbital distance and low eccentricity is more effective in massive, slowly evolving disks with small inner cavities.

Figure 3.

Figure 3. Semimajor axis and eccentricity at 10 Myr for scattered planets with masses between 15 ${M}_{\oplus }$ and 30 ${M}_{\oplus }$ in evolving disks with baseline parameters $({{\rm{\Sigma }}}_{{}_{0}},{a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}},{\kappa }_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}},\tau )$ = (1000 g cm−2, 60 au, 40 au Myr−1, 4 Myr) and a range of initial aphelion distances (2000–2800). Each panel illustrates how outcomes change when one of these parameters is varied in the range specified in the legend. Symbol shades indicate the value of the varied parameter from white (lower values) to black (upper values). In all panels, symbol size correlates with planet mass.

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Figure 4 summarizes the outcomes of all of our evolving disk models (see Tables 1 and 2). The trends that emerged in Figure 3 are apparent: long-lived, massive disks lead to significant dynamical evolution, while short-lived, low-mass disks do not. Figure 4 also shows an extended "sweet spot" in ae space, labeled with "Planet Nine," roughly corresponding to orbital elements of the massive perturber hypothesized by Batygin & Brown (2016) and Brown & Batygin (2016). Several hundred models yield planets that lie in the sweet spot, suggesting that the scattering mechanism can explain the inferred orbit of Planet Nine in the outer solar system.

Figure 4.

Figure 4. Outcomes for scattered planets at 10 Myr in evolving disks. Symbol size correlates with planet mass; shading indicates initial aphelion distance (lightest: 1600 au; darkest: 3600 au). More massive planets starting at the smallest aphelion distance settle at smaller orbital distances with lower eccentricities. Variations in the initial disk configuration and the mode/timescale for disk dissipation move the final (a, e) along the sequence outlined in the figure.

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Despite the trends revealed in Figures 13, it is difficult to tell which set of model parameters leads to successful Planet-Nine-like orbits. To distinguish models in a way that highlights successful ones, we define two variables:

Equation (10)

Equation (11)

Roughly, the first variable is a mass-dependent damping rate, determined by planet mass and the disk mass, along with a factor of $1/{r}_{{}_{\mathrm{apo}}}$ that reduces this rate if the planet is launched further away from the Sun. The second one measures the disk lifetime, based on the global disk decay time and the time for the disk to clear from the inside out, along with geometric factors involving the disk's radial extent and the planet's initial orbit. For models where τ is formally infinite, we set $\tau =10\,{\rm{Myr}}$, the simulated duration of the evolving disk models.

The variables P and Q help to isolate the parameters necessary for settling a scattered giant planet on a Planet-Nine-like orbit. Our choice for defining these quantities, along with the mass, length, and timescales in Equations (10) and (11), are based more on simplicity than anything else; other combinations of model parameters may serve the same purpose. Nonetheless, our choice yields a nicely compact region in PQ space for models that succeed in matching Adams & Laughlin (2001) criteria for Planet Nine.

Figure 5 shows a swath of points in the PQ plane that correspond to successful models. These points have just the right balance between the masses of the disk and the planet (P), on the one hand, and disk lifetime (Q) on the other. Models without this balance tend to produce planets that circularize at small semimajor axes (high P and high Q; large masses and long disk lifetimes) or remain highly eccentric at large semimajor axes (low P and low Q; small masses and short disk lifetimes).

Figure 5.

Figure 5. Disk lifetime and mass parameters describing outcomes for scattered planets in evolving disks. Each point in this space of mass and disk lifetime parameters (P and Q; see Equations (10) and (11)) corresponds to an individual simulation with a unique set of planet and disk configurations. Dark circles with black outlines indicate successful models, which roughly match the orbital parameters of Planet Nine in Batygin & Brown (2016) and are located in the shaded region in Figure 4. The line running through these points is from the approximation in Equation (12). The light gray points points, with the lightest shade of gray, cover the unsuccessful models where orbits are either too remote and eccentric or too close to the Sun and circular.

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A rough quantitative relationship between P and Q for successful models is $Q\sim {P}^{-3/2};$ in terms of model parameters, this condition translates to

Equation (12)

from which the inverse relationship between disk lifetime and mass factors is apparent, as is the sensitivity to disk and orbit geometries.

3.3. Summary of Simulation Outcomes

These simulations suggest a broad range of outcomes in ae space for 1–50 ${M}_{\oplus }$ planets scattered from 10 au into the outer part of a gaseous disk. For many combinations of input parameters, planets remain on $e\gtrsim 0.80$ orbits at $a\gtrsim 400\,\mathrm{au}$. Another set of parameters yields massive planets on nearly circular orbits at 100–200 au from the host star. Specific combinations of disk and planet properties result in "successful models," with planets on orbits consistent with the massive perturber of Batygin & Brown (2016).

  • 1.  
    A planet scattered at low inclination into a low-mass, long-lived disk damps at a rate proportional to the planet mass and the disk's surface density. The final semimajor axis depends on ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}$, the inner radius of the disk; successful models have ${a}_{{}_{{\rm{in}}}}\gtrsim 50\,{\rm{au}}$. A power-law disk (${\rm{\Sigma }}\sim 1/a$) with low surface density (${\rm{\Sigma }}\sim 3\times {10}^{-3}$g cm−2 at 100 au, extending to ∼1000 au) can produce a Neptune-size Planet Nine on a moderately eccentric orbit within the lifetime of the solar system. Higher planet masses or larger surface densities lead to success in less time.
  • 2.  
    Scattering in a massive, short-lived disk leads to Planet-Nine-like orbits when there is a balance between the damping rate and the disk evolution timescale. In successful models, planet masses are typically 10 ${M}_{\oplus }$ or more, although 5 ${M}_{\oplus }$ planets can acquire a Planet-Nine-like orbit in the most massive, long-lived disks. Most successful models experience either slow global decay ($\tau =4\,\mathrm{Myr}$) or none at all. The disk then evolves primarily through inside out erosion, as in a transition disk. This feature helps successful planets settle at large semimajor axes.
  • 3.  
    In all of our simulations, successful models tend to have semimajor axes that lie within a = 600 au. Batygin & Brown's preferred model has a higher orbital distance, with $a\approx 700\,{\rm{au}}$ (see also Brown & Batygin 2016; Malhotra et al. 2016). While their analysis accommodates a wide range of possibilities, our current models do not. If a massive perturber were to have a semimajor axis firmly established beyond 700 au, our mechanism would require a disk with more mass beyond a few hundred au.
  • 4.  
    In successful models, the scattered planet's perihelion sweeps through the Kuiper Belt. Representative simulations with tracers in a cold disk configuration explore the impact of the planet on Kuiper Belt objects or their precursors. Planets with mass as high as 30 ${{\rm{M}}}_{\oplus }$, scattered to 1600 au and settling at a = 300 au and e = 0.4 in 10 Myr leave at least 90% of the tracers on low eccentricity orbits, with $e\lt 0.05$. Slower evolution stirs up more particles; a 30 ${{\rm{M}}}_{\oplus }$ planet that evolves in a and e at half the rate leaves only about one-third of the tracers with $e\lt 0.05$. However, in this case, realistic predictions require calculations that include gas drag and collisional damping between small solids, both of which will cool the disk. We conclude that a scattered Planet Nine can settle while preserving a population of objects like the cold classical Kuiper Belt.

4. DISCUSSION

Although a Planet Nine in the outer solar system has not yet been confirmed, several massive exoplanets have been identified at large distances from their host stars. The outermost planet in the HR 8799 system has a semimajor axis of $a\approx 70\,\mathrm{au}$ (Marois et al. 2008; Maire et al. 2015). The planets in 1RXS J160929.1−210524 ($a\approx 330\,\mathrm{au}$; Lafrenière et al. 2010), and HD 106906 b ($a\approx 650\,\mathrm{au}$ Bailey et al. 2014) have much larger semimajor axes. Gravitational instability is a popular mechanism to produce planets with such large a (e.g., Helled et al. 2014; Rice 2016). Our calculations demonstrate that a planet scattered from $a\approx 10\,\mathrm{au}$ can interact with a gaseous disk and settle on roughly circular orbits at much larger a. Thus, scattering is a viable alternative to disk instability for placing massive planets at large a.

In our approach, we do not consider whether a scattered planet might accrete gas as its orbit damps (see, e.g., Hoyle & Lyttleton 1939). In principle, planets at large a might accumulate significant amounts of gas in 1–10 Myr. Whether accreting planets end up in configurations similar to those of the gas giants in HR 8799, 1RXS J160929.1−210524, and HD 106906 b requires an expanded set of more physically realistic simulations which are beyond the scope of the present work.

Here, we have focused on identifying initial conditions that yield a planet of fixed mass on an orbit with $e\sim 0.2\mbox{--}0.8$ at $a\gtrsim 300\,\mathrm{au}$. With over 104 models, we survey a variety of planet masses, scattered orbits, and configurations of the gas disk. A large central cavity in the disk, as observed in some transition disks (e.g., Andrews et al. 2011), is essential to settling Planet Nine at large orbital distances. Throughout, we assume that scattering and subsequent damping occur at low inclination; this condition is necessary for optimal interaction with the disk. A low scattering inclination is also expected. Damping by gas and planetesimals in the gas giant region likely kept larger bodies on orbits that were nearly coplanar with the gas disk (e.g., Lissauer & Stewart 1993, pp 1061-88).

Our "successful" models—with outcomes that have the orbital characteristics of Batygin & Brown's (2016) inferred massive perturber—are those that balance planet and disk masses with disk longevity. In models where the disk is long-lived but low-mass, a planet like Neptune can settle within a few billion years. Successful models with more rapid gas dissipation require more massive disks. Disks that evolve on timescales of a few million years can lead to Planet-Nine-like orbits, only if the initial disk mass is about 0.1 ${M}_{\odot }$ or more. A smaller disk scale height and/or reduced flaring of the disk (e.g., Keane et al. 2014) can reduce this restriction on the disk mass.

In addition to our proposal for scattering and damping as an origin for a massive perturber in the outer solar system, there are other compelling possibilities. These include in situ formation, late-time dynamical instabilities (the Nice model), passing stars, and Galactic tides. Each of these phenomena lead to different outcomes for Planet Nine.

In situ formation of Planet Nine is possible when disk evolution produces a massive ring of solids beyond 100 au. Coagulation may then grow super-Earths in 1–5 Gyr out to distances of 750 au (Kenyon & Bromley 2015, 2016). In this mechanism, super-Earths reside on fairly circular orbits. For comparison, scattered planets can damp to circular orbits only inside of ∼200 au (see Figure 4). Thus, a Planet Nine found at a large orbital distance with low eccentricity and low inclination strongly favors in situ formation. While not the favored choice of Batygin & Brown (2016), it is unclear whether current observations explicitly rule out circular orbits for the massive perturber.

Other dynamical events can also produce a Planet Nine. In the Nice model (Tsiganis et al. 2005), a dynamical instability after the inner gaseous disk has dispersed can scatter a fully formed giant planet into the outer solar system. Most scattered planets are ejected (e.g., Nesvorný 2011), but some might be retained on high-eccentricity ($e\gtrsim 0.9$), low-inclination ($i\lesssim 10^\circ $) orbits (e.g., Marzari et al. 2010; Raymond et al. 2010). Having a massive Planet Nine settle beyond 100 au requires additional physics. Damping by an extended, static gas disk is possible, but only if this disk can survive the Sun's birth cluster environment and photoevaporation by the young Sun (Adams 2010; Alexander et al. 2014).

A passing star—perhaps a member of the Sun's birth cluster (Adams & Laughlin 2001)—can also relocate Planet Nine in the outer solar system. Outcomes vary widely, depending on the planet's initial orbit (e.g., Kobayashi & Ida 2001; Kenyon & Bromley 2004; Morbidelli & Levison 2004; Brasser et al. 2006; Kaib & Quinn 2008). If the planet starts on a circular orbit in the ecliptic plane, a stellar flyby will give it a strong kick in eccentricity but only a mild boost in perihelion distance and inclination. Thus, if the planet's present day semimajor axis is above 400 au, it is likely to have an eccentricity of 0.9 or more, unless it formed well beyond Neptune.

A passing star can yield a broader range of outcomes if Planet Nine were on an eccentric orbit at the time of the flyby, perhaps as a result of a previous stellar encounter or the scattering mechanism considered here. Alternatively, if the Sun captured Planet Nine from the passing star, the possibilities are even greater (e.g., Figures 2 and 3 of Kenyon & Bromley 2004; see also Morbidelli & Levison 2004; Levison et al. 2010; Jílková et al. 2015). Although the likelihood of this eventuality seems low (Li & Adams 2016), this scenario is more probable than chance orientation as an explanation for the orbital alignment of the minor planets (Mustill et al. 2016).

Finally, we consider the effect of tides from the Galactic environment. For Oort cloud comets, the gravitational potential of the Galaxy dominates the orbital evolution (Heisler & Tremaine 1986; Duncan et al. 1987). However, tidal effects become weak inside 104 au; evolutionary timescales are then long, 100 Myr or more. For objects with a semimajor axis within 1000 au, the Galactic tide causes only small changes in the orbit over the age of the solar system (Higuchi et al. 2007; Brasser et al. 2008). In our static disk models, the semimajor axes we consider are at 800 au and smaller; a putative Planet Nine is then shielded from tidal interaction. In the evolving disk models, we use a maximum semimajor axis of 1800 au. However, in successful models, the semimajor axis falls well below 700 au within 10 Myr, well within the tidal evolution timescale.

In the absence of any gas, the Galactic tide can influence the orbit of a Planet Nine initially scattered beyond ∼1000 au within a billion years of the solar system's formation. Torque from the Galactic potential then raises both the perihelion and the inclination of the orbit (e.g., Duncan et al. 1987; Higuchi et al. 2007; Brasser et al. 2008). The hallmark of this process would be a semimajor axis exceeding 1000 au, a perihelion distance of at least 100 au, an eccentricity of 0.8–0.9, and an inclination that may be anywhere from $i=0^\circ $ to ∼135${}^{^\circ }$(e.g., Figures 9 and 11 of Higuchi et al. 2007).

Tides from the Sun's birth cluster may have had an even more dramatic effect than the Galactic tide (e.g., Brasser et al. 2006). However, if this cluster was typical of other embedded clusters, it would have disintegrated quickly, within 2–3 Myr (see Lada & Lada 2003). The density of stars in the cluster, the Sun's orbit through it, and the timing of the cluster dispersal relative to the formation of the gas giants are all uncertain. If Planet Nine's final orbit was determined by interactions during this phase of the Sun's history, then its high perihelion distance would also likely be accompanied by a high inclination (e.g., Figures 6 and 8 of Brasser et al. 2006).

Observations of exoplanetary systems provide ways to test these scenarios. Over the next 10–20 yr, direct imaging will probably yield large samples of gas giants at large a. Comparison of the observed properties of these systems with the predictions of numerical simulations should enable constraints on the likelihood of any particular theoretical model. For stars with ages of 5–10 Myr, current data suggest many systems with ≲1 Jupiter mass of gas (e.g., Dent et al. 2013). Expanding surveys to older stars and reducing upper limits on the mass in gas by an order of magnitude would challenge some of our scattering models.

In the solar system, identifying Planet Nine and new dwarf planets is essential for making progress. As outlined in Batygin & Brown (2016), larger samples of dwarf planets provide additional constraints on any Planet Nine. A robust detection of a massive perturber (see Cowan et al. 2016; de la Fuente Marcos & de la Fuente Marcos 2016; Fortney et al. 2016; Ginzburg et al. 2016; Linder & Mordasini 2016) and direct measurement of orbital elements allow discrimination between the various possibilities for the origin and evolution of Planet Nine. If interactions with a gas disk turn out to be important, the next step is to obtain more realistic predictions of scattering outcomes with hydrodynamical simulations. Combined with observations of exoplanets, these advances might determine the fate of scattered planets.

We are grateful to M. Geller, J. Najita, D. Wilner, and an anonymous referee for comments and helpful discussions. NASA provided essential support for this program through a generous allotment of computer time on the NCCS "discover" cluster and Outer Planets Program grant NNX11AM37G.

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10.3847/0004-637X/826/1/64