Preprint

PUBDB-2020-03341

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Modelling the spread of Covid19 in Italy using a revised version of the SIR model

Palladino, A. (Corresponding author)DESY* ; Nardelli, V. ; Atzeni, L. G. ; Cantatore, N. ; Cataldo, M. ; Croccolo, F. ; Estrada, N. ; Tombolini, A.

2020

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.3204/PUBDB-2020-03341

Report No.: arXiv:2005.08724

Abstract: In this paper, we present a model to predict the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic and apply it to the specific case of Italy. We started from a simple Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model and we added the condition that, after a certain time, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ exponentially decays in time, as empirically suggested by world data. Using this model, we were able to reproduce the real behavior of the epidemic with an average error of 5\%. Moreover, we illustrate possible future scenarios, associated to different intervals of $R_0$. This model has been used since the beginning of March 2020, predicting the Italian peak of the epidemic in April 2020 with about 100.000 detected active cases. The real peak of the epidemic happened on the 20th of April 2020, with 108.000 active cases. This result shows that the model had predictive power for the italian case.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Theoretische Astroteilchenphysik (Z_THAT)

Research Program(s):

1. 613 - Matter and Radiation from the Universe (POF3-613) (POF3-613)
2. NEUCOS - Neutrinos and the origin of the cosmic rays (646623) (646623)

Experiment(s):

1. No specific instrument

Appears in the scientific report 2020

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