High Profile, Low Availability: The Emerging US Maritime-Strategic Approach to NATO’s Northern Flank

In the 1990s and early 2000s, the United States held the Northern Flank a low priority in maritime-strategic considerations. Increasing Russian naval power, however, and a deterioration of the relationship between NATO and Russia following the 2014 invasion of Crimea, and the conflict in eastern Ukraine that followed, saw the Northern Flank return to maritime-strategic thinking around 2016. Given that the principal focus of US naval forces remains the Pacific, however, what are the central tenets of the emergent maritime-strategic approach of the United States to the Northern Flank? Describing these tenets, this article introduces the concept of High-Profile, Low-Availability (HIPLA). The core of the concept is twofold. First, the United States signals its enduring maritime interests through isolated operations and exercises sending a strong diplomatic message to all parties involved. This is the ‘high-profile’ aspect. Second, while the decisiveness of the initial phase of operations highlights the importance of swift and substantial reinforcement of the Northern Flank, US naval forces are not available for such a response. This is the ‘low-availability’ aspect. Further, as US naval forces become increasingly occupied in the Pacific, the availability of these forces is likely to continue to dwindle. Ultimately, HIPLA relates to the credibility of extended deterrence on behalf of the United States. This article describes the main characteristics of the HIPLA concept using NATO’s Northern Flank as a case study. Many issues outlined in this article are universal to the US Navy and may therefore be relevant to other regions.