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Operative Scheme for the Short-range Complex Forecasting of Wind

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Abstract

We describe our scheme of the operative wind (and possible gusts) forecasts with the lead time up to 3 days and evaluate its success. It uses joint statistical processing of the results of several best operative forecasting hydrodynamic weather forecasting schemes. This approach allowed us to reduce the error with respect to original schemes. The operative forecast and its evaluation for the period of 2014–2016 is implemented for ~ 2800 cities of Russia, Belarus, and Central Asia. The update results are represented at the official site of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia every day at 8:30 (a.m. and p.m.), Moscow time.

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References

  1. A. N. Bagrov, Ph. L. Bykov, and V. A. Gordin, “Complex Forecast of Surface Meteorological Parameters,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 1 (2014) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 5, 2 (2014)].

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  2. A. N. Bagrov and M. D. Tsyrulnikov, “Operative Scheme of the Objective Analysis of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia,” Proceedings of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, No. 1 (1999) [in Russian].

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  3. Instruction on Short-term Weather Forecasts for General Purposes. Guidance Document 52.27.724-2009 (IG-SOCIN, Obninsk, 2009) [in Russian].

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 11–13, Moscow, 123242, Russia

    A. N. Bagrov, Ph. L. Bykov & V. A. Gordin

  2. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Myasnitskaya ul. 20, Moscow, 101000, Russia

    V. A. Gordin

Authors
  1. A. N. Bagrov
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  2. Ph. L. Bykov
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  3. V. A. Gordin
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to V. A. Gordin.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © A.N. Bagrov, Ph.L. Bykov, V.A. Gordin, 2018, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2018, No. 7, pp. 19–28.

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Bagrov, A.N., Bykov, P.L. & Gordin, V.A. Operative Scheme for the Short-range Complex Forecasting of Wind. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 43, 436–443 (2018). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373918070026

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373918070026

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