Thermal Science 2014 Volume 18, Issue 3, Pages: 771-786
https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI1403771H
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Effects of climate change on regional energy systems focussing on space heating and cooling: A case study of Austria
Hausl Stephan (Research Studios Austria - Studio iSPACE, Salzburg, Austria + University of Technology, Munich, Germany)
Themessl Matthias (University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, Graz, Austria)
Gadocha Sabine (Research Studios Austria - Studio iSPACE, Salzburg, Austria)
Schardinger Ingrid (Research Studios Austria - Studio iSPACE, Salzburg, Austria)
Biberacher Markus (Research Studios Austria - Studio iSPACE, Salzburg, Austria)
Castellazzi Bernhard (Research Studios Austria - Studio iSPACE, Salzburg, Austria)
Gobiet Andreas (University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, Graz, Austria)
Climate change affects regions differently and therefore also climate change
effects on energy systems need to be analyzed region specific. The objective
of the study presented is to show and analyze these effects on regional
energy systems following a high spatial resolution approach. Three regional
climate scenarios are downscaled to a 1 km resolution and error corrected for
three different testing regions in Austria. These climate data are used to
analyze effects of climate change on heating and cooling demand until the
year 2050. Potentials of renewable energies such as solar thermal,
photovoltaic, ambient heat and biomass are also examined. In the last process
step the outcomes of the previous calculations are fed into two energy system
models, where energy system optimizations are executed, which provide
information concerning optimal setups and operations of future energy
systems. Due to changing climate strong changes for the energy demand
structure are noticed; lower heat demand in winter (between -7 and -15% until
2050) and - strongly differing between regions - higher cooling demand in
summer (up to +355%). Optimization results show that the composition of
energy supply carriers is barely affected by climate change, since other
developments such as refurbishment actions, price developments and regional
biomass availabilities are more influencing within this context.
Keywords: climate change, energy system modelling, regional energy systems, regional climate models, energy system optimisation, space heating demand, cooling demand, renewable energies, GIS, RESRO