A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data

Gary King

Published by Princeton University Press 1997

A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem

Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data

Gary King

https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400849208

Overview
Contents

About this book

This book provides a solution to the ecological inference problem, which has plagued users of statistical methods for over seventy-five years: How can researchers reliably infer individual-level behavior from aggregate (ecological) data? In political science, this question arises when individual-level surveys are unavailable (for instance, local or comparative electoral politics), unreliable (racial politics), insufficient (political geography), or infeasible (political history). This ecological inference problem also confronts researchers in numerous areas of major significance in public policy, and other academic disciplines, ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history. Although many have attempted to make such cross-level inferences, scholars agree that all existing methods yield very inaccurate conclusions about the world. In this volume, Gary King lays out a unique--and reliable--solution to this venerable problem.

King begins with a qualitative overview, readable even by those without a statistical background. He then unifies the apparently diverse findings in the methodological literature, so that only one aggregation problem remains to be solved. He then presents his solution, as well as empirical evaluations of the solution that include over 16,000 comparisons of his estimates from real aggregate data to the known individual-level answer. The method works in practice.

King's solution to the ecological inference problem will enable empirical researchers to investigate substantive questions that have heretofore proved unanswerable, and move forward fields of inquiry in which progress has been stifled by this problem.

Author / Editor information

Gary King is Professor of Government at Harvard University. He has authored and coauthored numerous journal articles and books in the field of political methodology, including Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton).

Reviews

"This is a significant contribution to political methodology, and to statistical methodology throughout the social sciences. As always with Gary King's work, it is written with great flair and sophistication. This book will generate a good deal of excitement at the methodological frontier, and will also have a bracing impact on substantive research in a variety of fields."—Larry M. Bartels, Princeton University

For decades, market researchers and statisticians have lamented their inability to deduce individual behavior from data on groups. But Gary King . . .has come up with a formula that finally cracks this nut.

"In this work, Gary King presents a number of new and important contributions to the field of statistical theory, and the practice of estimating choice probabilities from data aggregated into groups. An impressive statistical contribution."—Melvin J. Hinich, University of Texas-Austin

Topics

Frontmatter Publicly Available Download PDF	i
Contents Publicly Available Download PDF	vii
Figures Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	xi
Tables Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	xiii
Preface Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	xv
Part I: Introduction Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	1
Part II: Catalog of Problems to Fix Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	35
Part III: The Proposed Solution Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	75
Part IV: Verification Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	197
Part V: Generalizations and Concluding Suggestions Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	247
Part VI: Appendices Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	293
Glossary of Symbols Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	313
References Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	317
Index Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	337
About the Author Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	343

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