The Contemporary Pacific

Bitter divisions within Timor-Leste’s small political elite have been a regular feature of post-independence politics. These were aggravated by the political-military crisis of 2006 that saw a breakdown in the security institutions and the fall of the first government, and by acrimonious disputes in the wake of the 2007 and 2012 elections. Remarkably, interparty relations improved dramatically in 2015 with the emergence of a de facto government of national unity between the two major parties, the National Congress of the Timorese Reconstruction (cnrt) and the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (fretilin). This rapprochement saw an opposition figure appointed as prime minister to facilitate former resistance leader Xanana Gusmão’s move to the Ministry of Planning and Strategic Investment. This convergence in Dili’s political elite built on a newfound consensus style of politics, evident since 2013. But behind the political stability and slowly improving development indicators lay deeper questions of sustainability, with finite petroleum resources under pressure from large budget expenditures, and a demographic bulge of young East Timorese about to enter an overstretched labor market. Some concerns were also expressed over the lack of an effective parliamentary [End Page 466] opposition in Dili as 2015 came to a close.

Formed in the wake of the 2012 parliamentary elections, the multiparty coalition government Bloku Governu Koligasaun (Government Coalition Bloc) headed by Gusmão’s cnrt party put Timor-Leste’s oldest continuing party, fretilin, once again in opposition. Through 2013 and 2014, there had been clear signs of public rapprochement between the two key figures of Prime Minister Gusmão and the opposition fretilin leader, former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri. This was evidenced by fretilin’s unprecedented support for budget votes in Parliament and the appointment of Alkatiri as the head of a major project to develop the exclave of Oecusse as a special economic zone.

The long-anticipated resignation of prime minister and former resistance leader Xanana Gusmão still surprised observers in early 2015 when Dr Rui Araújo, a high-profile member of the opposition party fretilin, was appointed as his successor. The new prime minister was sworn in alongside three new ministers from fretilin, who joined a smaller, revamped ministry dominated by Gusmão’s cnrt party. Though Gusmão’s retirement had been on the cards since 2013, and a government of national unity has been discussed for many years, the outcome was still remarkable in light of the bitter relations between the two major parties as recently as 2012.

Smoothing a difficult political transition, Gusmão took the position of planning and investment minister, a move designed to provide stability as the new government took its first steps. Given his enormous stature in East Timorese politics, Gusmão’s departure from center stage was a known watch point for political stability. This extraordinary remaking of the government was also designed to smooth the transition from the “1975 generation” of leaders that has dominated post-independence politics since 2002. Gusmão’s continuing presence comes with oversight of the National Development Agency, which keeps him centrally involved in infrastructure policy and will aid the new government in its dealings with the critical constituency of military resistance veterans. Gusmão’s move away from direct responsibility for defense and police, meanwhile, was a significant indication of increasing confidence in stability, despite ongoing tensions with restive dissident veterans groups, including the Sagrada Familia, led by disaffected former guerrilla commander Cornelio “l7” Gama.

Although Rui Araújo comes from the opposition party, his relationship with Gusmão dates back to the early 1990s when he was a clandestine messenger in the student resistance. After training as a doctor in Indonesia and working in Dili in the late 1990s, Araújo undertook a master’s degree in public health in New Zealand, focusing on models for a new health system for Timor-Leste. He served as health minister in the first post-independence government from 2001 to 2007 and was briefly deputy prime minister. A widely respected figure, Araújo was a political independent until he joined fretilin in 2010. Most recently, he was a senior advisor...