姚成胜, 钱双双, 毛跃华, 李政通. 中国畜牧业碳排放量变化的影响因素分解及空间分异[J]. 农业工程学报, 2017, 33(12): 10-19. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.12.002
    引用本文: 姚成胜, 钱双双, 毛跃华, 李政通. 中国畜牧业碳排放量变化的影响因素分解及空间分异[J]. 农业工程学报, 2017, 33(12): 10-19. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.12.002
    Yao Chengsheng, Qian Shuangshuang, Mao Yuehua, Li Zhengtong. Decomposition of impacting factors of animal husbandry carbon emissions change and its spatial differences in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2017, 33(12): 10-19. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.12.002
    Citation: Yao Chengsheng, Qian Shuangshuang, Mao Yuehua, Li Zhengtong. Decomposition of impacting factors of animal husbandry carbon emissions change and its spatial differences in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2017, 33(12): 10-19. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.12.002

    中国畜牧业碳排放量变化的影响因素分解及空间分异

    Decomposition of impacting factors of animal husbandry carbon emissions change and its spatial differences in China

    • 摘要: 畜牧业温室气体排放占人类活动温室气体排放总量的18%,已成为全球温室气体排放的重要贡献部门。运用全生命周期评价法全面测度了2000-2014年中国大陆31个省区的畜牧业碳排放,采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法,将畜牧业碳排放分解为畜牧业生产效率、农业生产结构调整、单位农业人口农业生产收益、城镇化和总人口增长5大因素,从时空2个层面揭示了畜牧业碳排放的驱动效应。结果表明:1)2000-2014年,中国畜牧业碳排放总量由1.374×108 t增长到1.506×108 t,年均增速0.654%,其中畜禽胃肠发酵和粪便管理系统产生的碳排放是其主要来源,两者占畜牧业碳排放总量比例达65.58%~73.23%。2)无论从时间还是空间层面看,畜牧业生产效率都是抑制中国畜牧业碳排放持续增长的最重要因素,单位农业人口农业生产效益则是导致中国畜牧业碳排量持续增长的最重要因素,这一因素对草原畜牧业区和农耕畜牧业区的畜牧业碳排放促进作用非常明显,而对经济发达地区较为有限;总人口增长是促使畜牧业碳排放增长的另一重要因素,尤其是对人口大量流入的经济发达地区和计划生育政策宽松的广大西部少数民族地区更为明显。3)2000-2014年,城镇化是有效抑制畜牧业碳排放的第二大因素,而农业结构调整对畜牧业碳排放变化呈现由正向驱动转为负向驱动的变化特征,这一特征在中国畜牧业较为发达的中东部地区表现较为明显。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Animal husbandry greenhouse gas emissions account for 18% of total greenhouse gas emissions of all human activities, and have become one of the most important contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions increase. Using life cycle assessment (LCA) method, animal husbandry carbon emissions in the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China from 2000 to 2014 have been comprehensively measured. Based on logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, the changes of animal husbandry carbon emissions were decomposed into the contributions from 5 factors, including animal husbandry production efficiency, agricultural structure adjustment, agricultural productivity gains per agricultural labor, urbanization and total population growth. Using the data of animal husbandry carbon emissions measured by LCA, the driving effects of the 5 factors on animal husbandry carbon emissions change were measured from the spatial and temporal perspective. The results showed: 1) Total amount of animal husbandry carbon emissions in China increased from 137.423 million tons to 150.563 million tons from 2000 to 2014, and its average annual growth rate was 0.654%, of which the carbon emissions from gastrointestinal fermentation of livestock and manure management systems were the 2 key sources, accounting for 65.58%- 73.23% of the total amount of animal husbandry carbon emissions. 2) No matter from spatial or temporal perspective, animal husbandry production efficiency improvement was the most important factor to restrain the sustained growth of the animal husbandry carbon emissions; the increase of agricultural productivity gains per agricultural labor was the most important factor to promote the sustained growth of the animal husbandry carbon emissions, which was particularly outstanding in prairie pasturing areas and pasturing areas in major grain producing areas, however, the effect of the increase of agricultural productivity gains per agricultural labor on animal husbandry carbon emission growth was limited in developed areas. Population growth was another important factor to promote the growth of the animal husbandry carbon emissions, especially to the developed areas with massive population influx and the ethnic minority areas in most western part of China. 3) The increase of urbanization level ranked the second to restrain animal husbandry carbon emissions from 2000 to 2014, while the effect of agricultural structure adjustment on animal husbandry carbon emissions changed from positive to negative, and this characteristic was particularly obvious in eastern-central China with higher animal husbandry efficiency.

       

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