Imran Mahmood
ABSTRACT
Hajj is one of the largest mass gatherings where Muslims from all over the world gather in Makah each year for pilgrimage. A mass assembly of such scale bears a huge risk of disaster either natural or man-made. In the past few years, thousands of casualties have occurred while performing different Hajj rituals, especially during the Circumambulation of Kaba (Tawaf) due to stampede or chaos. During such calamitous situations, an appropriate evacuation strategy can help resolve the problem and mitigate further risk of causalities. It is however a daunting research problem to identify an optimal course of action based on several constraints. Modeling and analyzing such a problem of real-time and spatially explicit complexity requires a microscale crowd simulation and analysis framework. Which not only allows the modeler to express the spatial dimensions and features of the environment in real scale, but also provides modalities to capture complex crowd behaviors. In this paper, we propose an Agent-based Crowd Simulation & Analysis framework that incorporates the use of Anylogic Pedestrian library and integrates/interoperate Anylogic Simulation environment with the external modules for optimization and analysis. Hence provides a runtime environment for analyzing complex situations, e.g., emergency evacuation strategies. The key features of the proposed framework include: (i) Ability to model large crowd in a spatially explicit environment at real-scale; (ii) Simulation of complex crowd behavior such as emergency evacuation; (iii) Interoperability of optimization and analysis modules with simulation runtime for evaluating evacuation strategies. We present a case study of Hajj scenario as a proof of concept and a test bed for identifying and evaluating optimal strategies for crowd evacuation
- World Health Organization, "Communiable Disease Alert and Response for Mass Gatherings: Key Considerations," WHO Press, Geneva, 2008.Google Scholar
- "Incidents during the Hajj," {Online}. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incidents_during_the_Hajj. {Accessed January 2017}.Google Scholar
- "FDA Emergency Operations Plan," Office of crisis management, U.S Department of health and human services, 2014.Google Scholar
- J. Banks, J. S. Carson, B. L. Nelson and D. M. Nicol, Discrete-Event System Simulation (5th Edition), 5 ed., Prentice Hall, 2009.Google Scholar
- S. Zhou, D. Chen, W. Cai, L. Luo, M. Y. H. Low, F. Tian, V. S.-H. Tay, D. W. S. Ong and B. D. Hamilton, "Crowd Modeling and Simulation Technologies," ACM Trans. Model. Comput. Simul., vol. 20, pp. 20:1--20:35, 2010. Google ScholarDigital Library
- D. Thalmann and S. R. Musse, Crowd Simulation, London: Springer, 2007. Google ScholarDigital Library
- D. C. Duives, W. Daamen and S. P. Hoogendoorn, "State-of-the-Art Crowd Motion Simulation Models," Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, vol. 37, pp. 193--209, 2013.Google ScholarCross Ref
- S. Sarmady, F. Haron and A. Z. H. Talib, "Multi-Agent Simulation of Circular Pedestrian Moments Using Cellular Automata," in Second Asia International Conference on Modeling and Simulation, 2008. Google ScholarDigital Library
- S. Sarmady, F. Haron and A. Z. H. Talib, "Agent-Based Simulation of Crowd at the Tawaf Area," in 1st National Seminar on Hajj Best Practices Through Advances in Sciences and Technology, 2007.Google Scholar
- M. H. Dridi, "Simulation of High Density Pedestrian Flow: Microscopic Model," arXiv preprint arXiv:1501.06496, vol. Vol. XXI, no. 1, 2015.Google Scholar
- J. Zhong, W. Cai and L. Luo, "Crowd Evacuation Planning Using Cartersian Genetic Programming and Agent-Based Crowd Modeling," in Winter Simulation Conference, 2015. Google ScholarDigital Library
- A. Ferscha and K. Zia, "LifeBelt: Silent Directional Guidance for Crowd Evacuation," in International Symposium on Wearable Computers, Linz, 2009. Google ScholarDigital Library
- A. Abdelghany, K. Abdelghany, H. Mahmassani and W. Alhalabi, "Modeling Framework for Optimal Evacuation of Large-Scale Crowded Pedestrian Facilities," European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 237, no. 3, pp. 1105--1118, 2014.Google Scholar
- "Anylogic Simulation Software," {Online}. Available: http://www.anylogic.com/. {Accessed January 2017}.Google Scholar
- A. Borshchev, The big book of simulation modeling: multimethod modeling with AnyLogic, AnyLogic North America, 2013.Google Scholar
- "AnyLogic Pedestrian Simulation," {Online}. Available: https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Simulation_with_AnyLogic/Pedestrian_Simulation. {Accessed 2017}.Google Scholar
- "Space Markup," {Online}. Available: https://help.anylogic.com/index.jsp?topic=/com.xj.anylogic.help/html/ui/Space%20Markup%20palette.html. {Accessed 2017}.Google Scholar
- "Anylogic Experiment Framework," {Online}. Available: http://www.anylogic.com/experiment-framework. {Accessed Jan 2017}.Google Scholar
- M. Melanie, An introduction to genetic algorithms, MIT press,, 1998.Google Scholar
- P. Wang, P. B. Lou, S.-C. Chang and J. Sun, "Modeling and Optimization of Crowd Guidance for Building Emergency Evacuation," in 4th IEEE Conference on Automation Sciences and Engineering, Washington D.C., 2008.Google Scholar
- J. J. Fruin, "The Causes and Prevention of Crowd Disasters," in First International Conference on Engineering for Crowd Safety, London, 1993.Google Scholar
- Y. Yang, J. Li and Q. Zhao, "Study on passenger flow simulation in urban subway station based on anylogic," Journal of Software, vol. 9, pp. 140--147, 2014.Google Scholar
- S. Mohammad, M. S. Sunar and R. M. Hanifa, "A Review on Tawad Crowd Simulation: State-of-the-Art," International Journal of Interactive Digital Media, vol. 2, no. 11, pp. 1--6, 2014.Google Scholar
Index Terms
- Analyzing Emergency Evacuation Strategies for Mass Gatherings using Crowd Simulation And Analysis framework: Hajj Scenario
Recommendations
Emergency crowd evacuation modeling and simulation framework with cellular discrete event systems
First responders and security personnel face many challenges to safely evacuate crowded environments. Conducting frequent physical and table-top exercises are neither feasible nor economical. This is where modeling and simulation comes into play in ...
Analyzing emergency evacuation strategies for large buildings using crowd simulation framework
WSC '19: Proceedings of the Winter Simulation ConferenceThe occurrence of natural or man-made emergencies can be quite complex and demand flawless preparedness, through tested strategies, in order to ensure the safety of the individuals. For large-scale infrastructures, whether commercial or residential, ...
A model-based analysis of evacuation strategies in hospital emergency departments
WSC '21: Proceedings of the Winter Simulation ConferenceEvacuation planning for emergency incidents is an essential preparedness for Emergency Departments (ED) which normally contains patients with severe illness and limited mobility. However, the preparedness can be challenging due to a lack of empirical ...
Comments