A recent build-up of atmospheric CO₂ over Europe. Part 1: observed signals and possible explanations

We analysed interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric CO₂ concentration gradient (ΔCO₂) between Europe and the Atlantic Ocean over the period 1995–2007. Fourteen measurement stations are used, with Mace-Head being used to define background conditions. The variability of ΔCO₂ reflects fossil fuel emissions and natural sinks activity over Europe, as well as atmospheric transport variability. The mean ΔCO₂ increased by 1–2 ppm at Eastern European stations (∼30% growth), between 1990–1995 and 2000–2005. This built up of CO₂ over the continent is predominantly a winter signal. If the observed increase of ΔCO₂ is explained by changes in ecosystem fluxes, a loss of about 0.46 Pg C per year would be required during 2000–2005. Even if severe droughts have impacted Western Europe in 2003 and 2005, a sustained CO₂ loss of that magnitude is unlikely to be true.We sought alternative explanations for the observed CO₂ build-up into transport changes and into regional redistribution of fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. Boundary layer heights becoming shallower can only explain 32% of the variance of the signal. Regional changes of emissions may explain up to 27% of the build-up. More insights are given in the Aulagnier et al. companion paper.