Development of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM)‐based scenarios for wind energy

The purpose of this paper is to explore a very new approach of creating scenarios with fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM); specifically to create scenarios for wind energy deployment.

In this paper a small exercise is conducted to illustrate the usefulness of FCM‐based scenarios.

Scenario‐based planning is often used in technology management and scenarios are generated to cater for uncertainty and facilitate development of responsive and robust strategic plans. Scenario analysis helps to identify different alternatives of the future state of technologies, needs, policies and environment. Scenario planning helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. FCMs are based on causal cognitive maps and combine the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. Domain knowledge of multiple experts can be integrated into an FCM to present collective knowledge base.

This is a conceptual paper exploring use of fuzzy cognitive maps to create scenarios for wind energy deployment. The paper provides scenarios and a way to integrate them into technology roadmaps.