Register      Login
The Rangeland Journal The Rangeland Journal Society
Journal of the Australian Rangeland Society
Shopping Cart: ( empty )
You are here: Home > Journals > RJ > RJ06030
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 30(3)

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

D. H. Cobon A B G , K. L. Bell A , J. N. Park C D and D. U. Keogh E F
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Climate and Systems Technologies, Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, 203 Tor Street, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia.

B Present address: Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, Environmental Protection Agency, 203 Tor Street, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia.

C Climate and Systems Technologies, Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Landsborough Highway, PO Box 519, Longreach, Qld 4730, Australia.

D Present address: 166 Kingfisher Street, Longreach, Qld 4730, Australia.

E Department of Natural Resources and Mines, 203 Tor Street, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia.

F Present address: International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia.

G Corresponding author. Email: David.Cobon@climatechange.qld.gov.au

The Rangeland Journal 30(3) 361-374 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ06030
Submitted: 27 June 2006  Accepted: 6 October 2008   Published: 30 October 2008

Abstract

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000–01 (n = 43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n = 49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n = 42) to 51% in 2003 (n = 49) (P = 0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1–3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project.

Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n = 25) didn’t understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn’t use seasonal forecasts (n = 24) (P > 0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities.

The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, ‘The Season Ahead’ newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

Additional keywords: changed knowledge, grazier, quantitative data, ranchers, seasonal climate forecasting.


Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the pastoralists who participated in the survey. The Natural Heritage Trust and Land Water and Wool Climate subprogram provided financial support. Ron Hacker and Ian Watson provided insightful comments on an earlier draft. Sunil Dutta provided insightful comments and assisted with statistical analysis.


References


Abawi G. Y. , Dutta S. C. , Harris T. , Ritchie J. , Rattray D. , and Crane A. (2000). The use of seasonal climate forecasts in water resources management. In: ‘Proceedings of the Third International Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium of the Institute of Engineers’. (Eds J. Ruprecht and B. Bates.) pp. 447–455. (Australian Institute of Engineers: Canberra.)

Austen E. A., Sale P. W. G., Clark S. G., Graetz B. (2002) A survey of farmers’ attitudes, management strategies and use of weather and seasonal climate forecasts for coping with climate variability in the perennial pasture zone of south-east Australia. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 42, 173–183.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2000). ‘Agriculture Survey. Agricultural Commodities Produced.’ (Australian Bureau of Statistics: Canberra.)

Australian Government Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry (2004). Review of the Agriculture Advancing Australia Package 2000–04. Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra.

Bagshaw J. S. , and Ledger S. N. (2000). ‘Quality Management Training – Vegetables, Melons, Stone Fruit, Mangoes.’ (Horticulture Research and Development Corporation: Brisbane.)

Bayley D. , Fairley J. , Anderson R. , Grant R. , Kelleher F. , and Andrews A. (1994). An evaluation of prime pastures I. In: ‘Putting the Farm Under the Microscope. Proceedings of the 9th Annual Conference of the Grassland Society of NSW’. (Eds D. Garden and D. Michalk.) pp. 102–103. (The Grassland Society of NSW Inc.: Orange.)

Bennett C. (1975) Up the hierarchy. Journal of Extension (March/April), 6–12. open url image1

Changnon S. A., Changnon J. M., Changnon D. (1995) Uses and applications of climate forecasts for power utilities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76, 711–720.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Childs I. R. W., Hastings P. A., Auliciems A. (1991) The acceptance of long-range weather forecasts: a question of perception? Australian Meteorological Magazine 39, 105–112. open url image1

Clewett J. F. , Clarkson N. M. , George D. A. , Ooi S. , Owens D. T. , Partridge I. J. , and Simpson G. B. (2003). ‘Rainman StreamFlow (version 4.3): a Comprehensive Climate and Streamflow Analysis Package on CD to Assess Seasonal Forecasts and Manage Climatic Risk. QI03040.’ (Department of Primary Industries Queensland: Brisbane.)

Clewett J. F. , Clarkson N. M. , Owens D. T. , and Abrecht D. G. (1994). ‘Australian Rainman: Rainfall Information for Better Management. Computer Software Package and Manual.’ (Department of Primary Industries: Brisbane.)

Clewett J. F. , Howden S. M. , McKeon G. M. , and Rose C. W. (1991). Optimising farm dam irrigation in response to climatic risk. In: ‘Climatic Risk in Crop Production: Models and Management for the Semi-arid Tropics and Subtropics’. (Eds R. C. Muchow and J. A. Bellany.) pp. 307–328. (CAB International: Wallingford, UK.)

Clewett J. F. , Young P. D. , and Willoccks J. R. (1998). The effect of climate change on agriculture in central Queensland. I. Rainfall variability analysis. In: ‘The Changing Climate and Central Queensland Agriculture’. (Ed. E. R. Anderson.) (Australian Institute of Agricultural Science Central Queensland Sub-Branch: Emerald.)

Cobon D. H. (1999). Use of seasonal climate forecasts for managing grazing systems in western Queensland. In: ‘People and Rangelands, Building the Future. Proceedings of the 6th International Rangeland Congress’. (Eds D. Eldridge and D. Freudenberger.) pp. 855–857. (6th International Rangeland Congress Inc.: Aitkenvale, Qld.)

Cobon D. H. , and McKeon G. M. (2002). The value of seasonal forecasts in maintaining the resource and improving profitability in grazing systems – a case study in western Queensland. In: ‘Learning From History – Can Seasonal Forecasting Prevent Land Degradation of Australia’s Grazing Lands?’. (Eds G. M. McKeon and W. B. Hall.) pp. 273–297. (Land and Water Australia: Canberra.)

Cobon D. H. , and Park J. N. (2003). Sustainable grazing – balancing resources and profit in western Queensland. Natural Heritage Trust Final Report. Project No. 992606, Queensland Department of Primary Industries, Toowoomba.

Cobon D. H. , and Park J. N. (2004). Improved seasonal conditions for wool producers in the Queensland pastoral zone. Land Water and Wool, Final Report (QPI47), Land and Water Australia, Canberra.

Cobon D. H. , Park J. N. , Bell K. L. , Watson I. W. , Fletcher W. , and Young M. (2005). Targeted seasonal climate forecasts offer more to pastoralists. In: ‘Proceedings of the 20th International Grassland Congress’. (Eds F. P. O’Mara, R. J. Wilkins, L. ‘t Mannetje, D. K. Lovett, P. A. M. Rogers and T. M. Boland.) p. 556. (Wageningen Academic Publishers: Wageningen.)

Coventry W. L. (2001). Single event versus frequency formats for presenting climate forecast probabilities: beyond reasoning abilities to judgement. Honours Thesis, School of Psychology, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.

Dalgleish L. , Coventry W. , and McCrea R. (2001). Climate variability and farmers risk assessments and decision making. Final Report, Land and Water Australia, Canberra.

Dart J. , Petherram J. , and Shaw W. (1998). ‘Review of evaluation in agricultural extension. Publication No. 98/136.’ (Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation: Barton.)

Day K. A. , Aherns D. G. , Peacock A. , Rickert K. G. , and McKeon G. M. (2000). Climate tools for northern grassy landscapes. In: ‘Northern Grassy Landscapes Conference’. pp. 93–97. (Tropical Savannas Cooperative Research Centre: Katherine, NT.)

Everingham Y. L., Muchow R. C., Stone R. C., Coomans D. H. (2003) Using Southern Oscillation Index phases to forecast sugarcane yields: a case study for northeastern Australia. International Journal of Climatology 23, 1211–1218.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Hammer G. (2000). A general systems approach to applying seasonal forecasts. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – The Australian Experience’. (Eds G. L. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 51–75. (Kluwer Academic Press: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.)

Hammer G. , Carberry P. , and Stone R. (2000). Comparing the value of seasonal climate forecasting systems in managing cropping systems. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – The Australian Experience’. (Eds G. L. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 183–196. (Kluwer Academic Press: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.)

Hammer G. L., Holzworth D. P., Stone R. C. (1996) The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 47, 717–737.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Hartmann H. C., Pagano T. C., Sorooshian S., Bales R. (2002) Confidence builders – evaluating seasonal climate forecasts from user perspectives. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83, 683–698.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Hayman P. T., Alston C. L. (1999) A survey of farmer practices and attitudes to nitrogen management in the northern New South Wales grains belt. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 39, 51–63.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Howell D. C. (1992). ‘Statistical Methods for Psychology.’ 3rd edn (PWS-Kent Publishing Company: Boston.)

Johnston P. , McKeon G. , Buxton R. , Cobon D. , Day K. , Hall W. , and Scanlan J. (2000). Managing climatic variability in Queensland’s grazing lands – new approaches. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – The Australian Experience’. (Eds G. L. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 197–226. (Kluwer Academic Press: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.)

Keogh D. U. (2001). ‘A Report on the Evaluation of the Impact of the International Training Course Applications of Climate Forecasts to Agriculture. Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Coorparoo. QNRM01024.’ (Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines: Brisbane.)

Keogh D. U., Abawi G. Y., Dutta S. C., Crane A. J., Ritchie J. W., Harris T. R., Wright C. G. (2004b) Context evaluation: a profile of irrigator climate knowledge, needs and practices in the northern Murray-Darling Basin to aid development of climate-based decision support tools and information and dissemination research. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 44, 247–257.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Keogh D. U., Bell K. L., Park J. N., Cobon D. H. (2004a) Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for pastoralists in western Queensland. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 44, 233–246.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Keogh D. U., Watson I. W., Bell K. L., Cobon D. H., Dutta S. C. (2005) Climate information needs of Gascoyne Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 45, 1613–1625.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Klopper E. (1999) The use of seasonal forecasts in South Africa during the 1997/98 rainfall season. Water S.A. 25, 311–316. open url image1

Kruger J., Dunning D. (1999) Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77, 1121–1134.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | PubMed | open url image1

Lees J. W. (1991). ‘More than Accountability.’ (Rural Development Centre, University of New England: Armidale.)

Lemos M. C., Finan T. J., Fox R. W., Nelson D. R., Tucker J. (2002) The use of seasonal climate forecasting in policymaking: lessons from Northwest Brazil. Climatic Change 55, 479–507.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

McCown R. L., Hammer G. L., Hargreaves J. N. G., Holzworth D. P., Freebairn D. M. (1996) APSIM: A novel software system for model development, model testing, and simulation in agricultural research. Agricultural Systems 50, 255–271.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

McCrea R., Dalgleish L., Coventry W. (2005) Encouraging the use of seasonal forecasts by farmers. International Journal of Climatology 25, 1127–1137.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

McKeon G. M. , Ash A. J. , Hall W. B. , and Stafford Smith D. M. (2000). Simulation of grazing strategies for beef production in north-east Queensland. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – The Australian Experience’. (Eds G. L. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 227–252. (Kluwer Academic Press: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.)

McKeon G. M., Day K. A., Howden S. M., Mott J. J., Orr D. M., Scattini W. I., Weston E. J. (1990) Northern Australia savannas’ management for pastoral production. Journal of Biogeography 17, 355–372.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

McKeon G. M. , Howden S. M. , Silburn D. M. , Carter J. O. , Clewett J. F. , et al (1988). The effect of climate change on crop and pastoral production in Queensland. In: ‘Greenhouse, Planning for Climate Change’. (Ed. G. I. Pearman.) pp. 546–563. (CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Physics: Melbourne.)

McKeon G. M., White D. H. (1992) El Niño and better land management. Search 23, 197–200. open url image1

Meinke H., Hammer G. L. (1997) Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 45, 1557–1568. open url image1

Nicholls N. (1999) Cognitive illusions, heuristics and climate prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80, 1385–1397.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

O’Grady K. , and Shabman L. (1990). Communicating the probability of Great Lakes water levels and storms. In: ‘Proceedings of the Great Lakes Water Level Forecast and Statistics Symposium’. Windsor, Ontario, Canada. pp. 197–204. (Great Lakes Commission: Windsor.)

Pagano T. C., Hartmann H. C., Sorooshian S. (2001) Using climate forecasts for water management: Arizona and the 1997–98 El Niño. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 37, 1139–1152.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | open url image1

Paull C. (2004). Processes for using climate risk management information in rangeland enterprises. In: ‘Living in the Outback. Proceedings of the Australian Rangeland Society 13th Biennial Conference’. (Eds G. Bastin, D. Walsh and S. Nicolson.) pp. 277–278. (Australian Rangeland Society: Dubbo, NSW.)

Paull C. J. , and Hall W. (1999). A survey of the assessment of seasonal conditions in pastoral Australia – benchmarking in the AussieGRASS project. Part 1. Queensland Report, November 1999. Queensland Department of Primary Industries, Brisbane.

Sarewitz D. , Pielke R. A. Jr , and Byerly R. Jr. (2000). ‘Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature.’ (Island Press: Washington.)

Scheaffer R. L. , Mendenhall W. , and Ott L. (1990). ‘Elementary Survey Sampling.’ 4th edn (PWS-Kent Publishing Company: Boston.)

Stafford Smith D. M. , Buxton R. , McKeon G. M. , and Ash A. J. (2000). Seasonal climate forecasting and the management of rangelands: do production benefits translate to enterprise profits? In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – The Australian Experience’. (Eds G. L. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 271–290. (Kluwer Academic Press: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.)

Stone R. C., Hammer G. L., Marcussen T. (1996) Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384, 252–255.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | CAS | open url image1

Tversky A., Kahneman D. (1974) Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185, 1124–1131.
| Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | PubMed | open url image1

Wilson T. D. , and Wissemann A. F. (1980). The attitudes and opinions to beef carcass classification of retailers who trade with Kilcoy abattoir. Extension Research and Evaluation Report No. 1, Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Brisbane.

Wilson T. D. , Wissemann A. F. , Pryde R. J. , and Tobin J. G. (1980). The acceptance of beef carcass classification by retailers who trade with Kilcoy Abattoir. A report prepared for the Kilcoy Working Party on Carcass Classification. Q 80001. Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Brisbane.