Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Modelling the global maritime container network

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Maritime Economics & Logistics Aims and scope

Abstract

Travel demand modelling has a long history going back to 50s when the conventional four-step modelling structure was introduced and developed for Chicago and Detroit, USA. However, the first travel demand models for freight movements were not developed until 40 years after the first model for passenger cars. Freight models are yet limited to studies looking at goods movements by truck and rail. This paper explores the effectiveness of the conventional travel demand modelling techniques for maritime container movements. Two approaches for modelling the movement of trade in the global maritime container network are discussed. The conventional methods of trip generation and distribution are applied in a sequential model, and compared against an alternative joint model methodology. Results show that the sequential methodology achieves high accuracy, while the joint methodology reveals more detailed trade relationships. Significant relationships are revealed, such as the varying influence of airports, the negative impact of coastline length and the impact of being an island, on containerised trade volumes. The findings of this paper provide a basis for modelling the container network from a transportation discipline viewpoint.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson, J.E. (2011) The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics 3: 133–160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson, J.E. and Wincoop, E.V. (2004) Trade costs. Journal of Economic Literature 42(3): 691–751.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Auld, J., Hossein Rashidi, T. and Lin, J. (2009) Analysis of National Country-Level Heavy-Duty Freight Truck Emissions. Orlando, FL: Transportation, Land Use, Planning and Air Quality, pp. 1–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baier, S.L. and Bergstrand, H.J. (2007) Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade? Journal of International Economics 71(1): 72–95.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barigozzi, M., Fagiolo, G. and Garlaschelli, D. (2010) Multinetwork of international trade: A commodity-specific analysis. Physical Review E 81(4): 046104.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bell, M.G., Liu, X., Rioult, J. and Angeloudis, P. (2013) A cost-based maritime container assignment model. Transportation Research Part B 58: 58–70.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bensassia, S., Martinez-Zarzoso, I. and Suárez, C. (2014) The effect of maritime transport costs on the extensive and intensive margins: Evidence from the Europe–Asia trade. Maritime Economics and Logistics 16(3): 276–297.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bergstrand, J.H. (1984) The gravity equation in international trade: Some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics 67: 474–481.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bougheas, S., Demetriades, P.O. and Morgenroth, L.E. (1999) Infrastructure, transport costs and trade. Journal of International Economics 47: 169–189.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burgess, A. et al. (2008) TRANS-TOOL Final Report, http://www.transport-research.info/sites/default/files/project/documents/20100304_172116_94411_TRANSTOOLS%20-%20Final%20Report.pdf, accessed 11 January 2015.

  • Carrere, C. (2006) Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model. European Economic Review 50(2): 223–247.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chou, C.-C., Chu, C.-W. and Liang, G.-S. (2008) A modified regression model for forecasting the volumes of Taiwan’s import containers. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 47(1): 797–807.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Egger, P. (2000) A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation. Economics Letters 66: 25–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elsdon, P. and Burdall, T. (2004) Container Terminal Planning and Design, s.l.: Ports 2001.

  • Ferguson, M. et al. (2012) Transferability and enhancement of a microsimulation model for estimating urban commercial vehicle movements. Journal of Transport Geography 24: 358–369.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gosasang, V., Chandraprakaikul, W. and Kiattisin, S. (2011) A comparison of traditional and neural networks forecasting techniques for container throughput at bangkok port. The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics 27(3): 463–482.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IHS Maritime & Trade (2016) IHS World Trade Service, https://www.ihs.com/pdf/World-Trade-Service_205126110913044932.pdf, accessed 11 January 2015.

  • Kaluza, P., Kolzsch, A., Gastner, M.T. and Blasius, B. (2010) The complex network of global cargo ship movements. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 7(48): 1093–1103.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lam, H.W., Ng, L.P., Seabrooke, W. and Hui, C.E. (2004) Forecasts and reliability analysis of port cargo throughput in Hong Kong. Journal of urban Planning and Development 130: 133–144.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lightfoot, A., Bolin, R. and Lubulwa, G. (2009) Australian Sea Port Activity to 2029–30. s.l.: Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics.

  • Limao, N. and Venables, A.J. (2001) Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, trasport costs, and trade. The World Bank Economic Review 15(3): 451–479.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo, M. and Grigalunas, T.A. (2003) A spatial-economic multimodal transportation simulation model For US Coastal Container Ports. Maritime Economics & Logistics 5(2): 158–178.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mansfield, E.D. and Milner, H.V. (2010) Regime type, veto points, and preferential trading arrangements. Stanford Journal of International Law 46: 219.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marcouiller, D. and Anderson, J.E. (2002) Insecurity and the pattern of trade: An empirical investigation. Review of Economics and statistics 84(2): 342–352.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martinez-Zarzoso, I. and Nowak-Lehmann, F. (2003) Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur–European union trade flows. Journal of Applied Economics 6(2): 291–316.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newton, S. (2009) WORLDNET Final Report (D11). Zoetermeer: NEA Transport Research and Training.

  • Nuzzolo, A., Crisalli, U. and Comi, A. (2013) An aggregate transport demand model for import and export flow simulation. Transport 30: 43–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2016) Metro Version 1 Model Documentation, http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=TAD/TC/WP(2014)24/FINAL&docLanguage=En, accessed 11 January 2015.

  • Oxford Economics (2015) Global Economic Model, http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/forecasts-and-models/countries/scenario-analysis-and-modeling/global-economic-model/overview, accessed 11 January 2015.

  • Rodrigue, J.-P. (2013) The Geography of Transport Systems, 3rd edn. New York: Hofstra University.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sapienza, P., Zingales, L. and Sapienza, P. (2006) Does culture affect economic outcomes? Journal of Economic Perspectives 20(2): 23–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sinha-Ray, P. et al. (2003) Container World: GLOBAL Agent-Based Modelling of the Container Transport Business. In Proceedings 4th Workshop of Agent-Based Simulation, Montpellier.

  • Taplin, G.B. (1967) Models of world trade. Staff Papers 14(3): 433–455.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • The UNCTAD Secretariat (2012) Review of Maritime Transport. Geneva: United Nations Publication.

    Google Scholar 

  • Viton, P.A. (1994) Calibrating the Gravity Model, Working Paper. Columbus: Department of City and Regional Planning, The Ohio State University.

  • World Trade Organisation (2013) World Trade Report 2013. s.l.: World Trade Organisation.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia

    Taha Hossein Rashidi & Lauren Gardner

  2. Transport Advisory Group, AECOM Australia Pty Ltd., Sydney, NSW, 2000, Australia

    Yanni Huang

Authors
  1. Yanni Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Taha Hossein Rashidi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Lauren Gardner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Taha Hossein Rashidi.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Huang, Y., Rashidi, T.H. & Gardner, L. Modelling the global maritime container network. Marit Econ Logist 20, 400–420 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-016-0047-3

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-016-0047-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation