Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Historic Turning Points in Real Estate

  • Presidential Address
  • Published:
Eastern Economic Journal Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper looks for markers of ends of real estate booms or busts. The changes in market psychology and related indicators that occurred at real estate market turning points in the United States since the 1980s are compared with changes at turning points in the more distant past. In all these episodes, changes in an atmosphere of optimism about the future course of home prices, changes in public interpretation of the boom, as well as evidence of supply response to the high prices of a boom are noted.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Figure 1
Figure 2

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The author is indebted to William Smalley for research assistance.

  2. The analysis here extend that in Shiller [2005].

References

  • Bohnet, Iris, Fiona Greig, Benedikt Herrmann, and Richard Zeckhauser . 2007. Betrayal Aversion, Unpublished paper, Harvard University, 2007.

  • Case, Karl E., and Robert J. Shiller . 1988. The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets, New England Economic Review (November/December): 29–46.

  • Case, Karl E., and Robert J. Shiller . 2006. Home Buyers Survey Results 1988–2006, Unpublished paper, Yale University, 2006.

  • Gyourko, Joseph, Christopher Mayer, and Todd Sinai . 2004. Superstar Cities, Unpublished paper, Wharton School, 2004.

  • Mankiw, N. Gregory, and David N. Weil . 1992. The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 21 (4): 541–552; NBER Working Paper No. 2794, 1990.

    Google Scholar 

  • Phillips, Gordon, and Gerard Hoberg . 2007. Real and Financial Industry Booms and Busts, Unpublished paper, University of Maryland, 2007.

  • Schank, Roger C., and Robert P. Abelson . 1995. Knowledge and Memory: The Real Story, in Knowledge and Memory: The Real Story, edited by Robert S. Wyer, Jr. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1–85.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schank, Roger C., and Robert P. Abelson . 1977. Scripts, Plans, Goals and Understanding. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiller, Robert J . 2005. Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics and International Center for Finance, Yale University, 30 Hillhouse Avenue, New Haven, 06520-8281, CT, USA

    Robert J Shiller

Authors
  1. Robert J Shiller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Shiller, R. Historic Turning Points in Real Estate. Eastern Econ J 34, 1–13 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.eej.9050001

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.eej.9050001

Keywords

JEL Classifications

Search

Navigation