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“Sure, I Voted for the Winner!” Overreport of the Primary Vote for the Party Nominee in the National Election Studies

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Abstract

Misreport is a serious problem because inaccurate data may lead to erroneous substantive conclusions. This study examines the systematic misreport for the eventual presidential nominee in the American National Election Studies (ANES) presidential primary vote question. Using various data sources, this study demonstrates that misreport in presidential primaries is a serious problem leading to possible misinterpretation of the negative carryover hypothesis. Misreport also may be a product of time of interview. Earlier interviewing may help to solve part of the misreport problem.

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Atkeson, L.R. “Sure, I Voted for the Winner!” Overreport of the Primary Vote for the Party Nominee in the National Election Studies. Political Behavior 21, 197–215 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022031432535

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