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The Development of a Simulation Model of Primary Prevention Strategies for Coronary Heart Disease

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Abstract

This paper describes the present state of development of a discrete-event micro-simulation model for coronary heart disease prevention. The model is intended to support health policy makers in assessing the impacts on health care resources of different primary prevention strategies. For each person, a set of times to disease events, conditional on the individual's risk factor profile, is sampled from a set of probability distributions that are derived from a new analysis of the Framingham cohort study on coronary heart disease. Methods used to model changes in behavioural and physiological risk factors are discussed and a description of the simulation logic is given. The model incorporates POST (Patient Oriented Simulation Technique) simulation routines.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Health Services Research Unit, Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK

    Hannah Babad & Colin Sanderson

  2. Health Promotion Research Unit, Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK

    Bhash Naidoo

  3. Medical Statistics Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK

    Ian White & Duolao Wang

Authors
  1. Hannah Babad
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  2. Colin Sanderson
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  3. Bhash Naidoo
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  4. Ian White
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  5. Duolao Wang
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Correspondence to Hannah Babad.

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Babad, H., Sanderson, C., Naidoo, B. et al. The Development of a Simulation Model of Primary Prevention Strategies for Coronary Heart Disease. Health Care Management Science 5, 269–274 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020330106374

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