Skip to main content
Log in

Investment under Demand Uncertainty, Ex-Ante Pricing, and Oligopoly

  • Published:
Review of Industrial Organization Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper considers the capacity choice of duopolists who set price ex-ante under demand uncertainty with risk-neutrality. The duopolists compete for market shares on the basis of availability of supply, rather than by price competition. Collusive pricing coexists with Cournot–Nash capacity choice. A formal model is presented, where the market share of each firm may deviate from the certainty share due to rationing. With shares reflecting different costs, capacity utilisation for the lower cost firm is expected to be substantially lower. The implications for the price-cost margin and capacity formation are also explored.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aiginger, K. (1987) Production and Decision Theory under Uncertainty, Blackwell.

  • AVMARK (1993) AVMARK monthly newsletter, July, Lloyd's Aviation Ltd., London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blinder, A. (1991) 'Why Are Prices Sticky? Preliminary Results from an Interview Study', The American Economic Review, May, 89-96

  • Brock, W., and J. Scheinkman (1985) 'Price-Setting Supergames with Capacity Constraints', Review of Economic Studies, 52, 371-382.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buckle, R. A., and C. S. Meads (1991) 'How Do Firms React to Surprising Changes in Demand? A Vector Autoregressive Analysis Using Business Survey Data', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 53(4), 451-466.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carlton, D. W. (1978) 'Market Behaviour with Demand Uncertainty and Price Inflexibility', American Economic Review, 68(4), 571-587.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carlton, D. W. (1992) 'The Rigidity of Prices', in N.G. Mankiw and D. Romer, eds., New Keynesian Economics, Vol. 1. MIT Press.

  • Chandler, A. D. (1964) Strategy and Structure, Chapters in the History of American Industrial Enterprise. Cambridge, MA.

  • Domberger, S. (1980) 'Mergers, Market Structure and the Rate of Price Adjustment', in K. Cowling et al., eds., Mergers and Economic Performance. Cambridge: CUP.

    Google Scholar 

  • Domberger, S., and D. G. Fiebig (1993) 'The Distribution of Price Changes in Oligopoly', Journal of Industrial Economics, XLI(3), 295-313.

    Google Scholar 

  • Driver, C., and D. Moreton (1992) Investment, Expectations and Uncertainty. London: Basil Blackwell.

    Google Scholar 

  • Driver, C., P. Lambert, and S. Vial (1993) 'Risky Production with Ex-Ante Prices under Monopoly: Analytical and Simulation Results', Bulletin of Economic Research, 45(1), 59-68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Driver, C., S. Abubacker, and G. Argiris (1996) 'Capacity Choice under Monopoly, Flexible Price and Demand Uncertainty', Southern Economic Journal, 62(2), 526-532.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gilbert, R., and R. Harris (1984) 'Competition with Lumpy Investment', Rand Journal of Economics, 15, 197-212.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gilbert, R., and M. Lieberman (1987) 'Investment and Coordination in Oligopolistic Industries', Rand Journal of Economics, 18(1), 17-33.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hall, S., M. Walsh, and T. Yates (1996) 'How Do UK Companies Set Prices?', Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, May, 180-192.

  • Heiner, R. (1983) 'The Origin of Predictable Behaviour', American Economic Review, September, 560-595.

  • Karlin, S., and S. Carr (1962) 'Prices and Optimal Inventory Policy', in K. Arrow et al., eds., Studies in Applied Probability and Management Science. Stanford: Stanford University Press, pp. 159-172.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kreps, D., and J. Scheinkman (1983) 'Quantity Precommitment and Bertrand Competition Yield Cournot Outcomes', Bell Journal of Economics, 14, 326-338.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lieberman, M. (1987) 'Strategies for Capacity Expansion', Sloan Management Review, Summer, 19-27.

  • Pike, R. (1982) Capital Budgeting in the 1980s. London: Institute of Cost and Management Accountants.

    Google Scholar 

  • Porter, M., and M. Spence (1981) 'The Capacity Expansion Process in a Growing Oligopoly: The Case of Wet Coin Milling', in J. McCall, ed., The Economics of Information and Uncertainty. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, R. (1992) 'Collusive Equilibrium in the Great Salt Duopoly', The Economic Journal, 103(419), 833-848.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scherer, F. M., and D. Ross (1990) Industrial Market Structure and Economic Performance. Houghton Miffin.

  • Tirole, J. (1988) The Theory of Industrial Organisation. MIT Press.

  • Wallace, D. H. (1937) Market Control in the Aluminium Industry. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Driver, C., Goffinet, F. Investment under Demand Uncertainty, Ex-Ante Pricing, and Oligopoly. Review of Industrial Organization 13, 409–423 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007747212208

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007747212208

Navigation