Abstract
A model to predict the surface temperature of a variety of surfaces is described. The model solves the surface energy balance equation iteratively, using only standard meteorological data. Since surface and soil temperature information is not required for initialisation, the model is portable and, in theory, could be used for any surface and location. It is shown that, in order to obtain the correct cooling rates for vegetation during the night, the direct influence of the ground flux must be removed from the energy balance equation for the layer of vegetation. A scheme that couples a vegetation canopy to the ground solely by radiation is described, giving satisfactory cooling rates when compared with observations. Observations from a field site at Cardington, near Bedford, UK, are used to test the accuracy of the model for road and grass surfaces. When compared against these data, the model predicts surface temperatures with a root mean square error of about 1 °C for the road and 2 °C for the grass. Data from other sources not only give similar results to the Cardington data, but also demonstrate that the model can reproduce the characteristics of wet and partially dry soils and also dry desert sand. A study of the sensitivity of the model to errors in the forcing data indicates that inaccuracies in the air temperature data lead to similar sized errors in the predicted surface temperatures. Fluctuations in the forcing data that are not resolved by the model will affect a grass surface much more than a road surface, due to the relatively small thermal inertia of the grass.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arnfield, A. J.: 1979, ‘Evaluation of Empirical Expressions for the Estimation of Hourly and Daily Totals of Atmospheric Longwave Emission under All Sky Conditions', Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 105, 1041–1052.
Beljaars, A. C. M. and Holtslag, A. A. M.: 1991, ‘Flux Parametrisation over Land Surfaces for Atmospheric Models', J. Appl. Meteorol. 30, 327–341.
Deardorff, J. W.: 1978, ‘Efficient Prediction of Ground Surface Temperature and Moisture with Inclusion of a Layer of Vegetation', J. Geophys. Res. 83, 1889–1903.
Dickinson, R. E., Henderson-Sellers, A., Rosenzweig, C., and Sellers, P. J.: 1991, ‘Evapotranspiration Models with Canopy Resistance for use in Climate Models, a Review', Agric. For. Meteorol. 54, 373–388.
Dolman, A. J., Gash, J. H. C., Roberts, J., and Shuttleworth, W. J.: 1991, ‘Stomatal and Surface Conductance of Tropical Rainforest', Agric. For. Meteorol. 54, 303–318.
Dyer, A. J.: 1974, ‘A Review of Flux-Profile Relationships', Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 7, 363–372.
Gadd, A. J. and Keers, J. F.: 1970, ‘Surface Exchanges of Sensible and Latent Heat in a 10-Level Model Atmosphere', Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 297–308.
Garratt, J. R.: 1992, The Atmospheric Boundary Layer, Cambrndge University Press, 316 pp.
Grant, A. L. M.: 1994, ‘Wind Profiles in the Stable Boundary Layer, and the Effect of Low Relief', Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 120, 27–46.
Huntingford, C., Allen, S. J., and Harding, R. J.: 1995, ‘An Intercomparison of Single and Dual-Source Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer Models Applied to Transpiration from Sahelian Savannah', Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 74, 397–418.
Idso, S. B.: 1980, ‘On Apparent Incompatibility of Different Atmospheric Thermal Radiation Data Sets', Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 106, 375–376.
Mihailovic, D. T. and Ruml, M.: 1996, ‘Design of Land-Air Parametrisation Scheme (LAPS) for Modelling Boundary Layer Surface Processes', Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 58, 65–81.
Novak, M. D. and Black, T. A.: 1985, ‘Theoretical Determination of the Surface Energy Balance and Thermal Regimes of Bare Soils', Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 33, 313–334.
Novak, M. D.: 1991, ‘Application of a Mixed-Layer Model to Bare Soil Surfaces', Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 56, 141–162.
Pascale, A. J.: 1975, ‘Agricultural Biometeorology and Bioclimatology', in L. P. Smith (ed.), Chapter 3, Section 1, Progress in Plant Biometeorology, Swets & Zeitlinger B. V., Amsterdam.
Parrey, G. E.: 1969, ‘Minimum Road Temperatures', Meteorol. Mag. 98, 286–290.
Prata, A. J.: 1996, ‘A New Long-Wave Formula for Estimating Downward Clear-Sky Radiation at the Surface', Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 1127–1151.
Rayer, P. J.: 1987, ‘The Meteorological Office Forecast Road Surface Temperature Model', Meteorol. Mag. 116, 180–191.
Reiff, J., Blaauboer, D., de Bruin., H. A. R., van Ulden, A. P., and Cats, G.: 1984, ‘An Air Mass Transformation Model for Short-Range Weather Forecasting', Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 393–412.
Sellers, P. J., Randell, D. A., Collatz, G. J., Berry, J. A., Field, C. B., Dazlich, D. A., Zhang, C., Collelo, G. D., and Bounoua, L.: 1996, ‘A Revised Land Surface Parametrisation (SiB2) for Atmospheric GCMs. Part I: Model Formulation', J. Climate 9, 706–737.
Swinbank, W. C.: 1963, ‘Long-Wave Radiation from Clear Skies', Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 339–348.
Thompson, N.: 1981, ‘Modelling the Field Drying of Hay', J. Agric. Sci. 97, 241–260.
Thompson, N.: 1992, ‘Possible Changes to the Meteorological Office Road Surface Temperature (RST) Prediction Model', Met.O.(P) Special Investigations Technical Memorandum, No. 10. Copy available in the U.K. National Meteor. Library.
Thornes, J. E. and Shao, J.: 1991, ‘A Comparison of UK Road Ice Prediction Models', Meteorol. Mag. 120, 51–57.
Vogel, C. A., Baldocchi, D. D., Luhar, A. K., and Shankar Rao, K.: 1995, ‘A Comparison of a Hierarchy of Models for Determining Energy Balance Components over Vegetation Canopies’, J. Appl. Meteorol. 34, 2182–2196.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Best, M. A Model to Predict Surface Temperatures. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 88, 279–306 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1001151927113
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1001151927113