Abstract
We compared juvenile offenders' recidivism following nonrandom assignment to juvenile diversion (JD, n = 137), JD plus skill training (ST, n = 55), or JD plus mentoring (MEN, n = 45). Intake characteristics that distinguished intervention groups were used to calculate assignment propensity scores. After propensity score blocking balanced intake characteristics, ST proved more cost effective than MEN, achieving a 14% relative reduction in recidivism at a savings of $33,600 per hundred youths. In ST, 37% were rearrested 2 years or more after intake, compared to 51% in MEN and 46% in JD. In two of five propensity subclasses, time to first rearrest was longer in ST (M = 767 days) than in MEN (M = 638 days) or JD (M = 619 days). These results argue for an experimental comparison of ST and MEN and for observational studies with propensity analysis when randomization to juvenile justice interventions is infeasible.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
Achenbach, T. M. (1991). Manual for the Child Behavior Checklist, 4–18, 1991 Profile. Burlington: University of Vermont Department of Psychiatry.
Andrews, D. A., Robinson, D., & Balla, M. (1986). Risk principal of case classification and the prevention of residential placements: An outcome evaluation of the Share the Parenting Program. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 54, 203–207.
Basta, J. M., & Davidson, W. S. (1988). Treatment of juvenile delinquents: Study outcomes since 1980. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 6, 355–384.
Beck, A. T., Ward, C. H., Mendelson, M., Mock, J., & Erbaugh, J. (1961). An inventory for measuring depression. Archives of General Psychiatry, 4, 561–571.
Blechman, E. A. (1992). Mentors for high-risk minority youth: From effective communication to bicultural competence. Journal of Clinical Child Psychology. 21, 160–169.
Borenstein, M., Rothstein, H., & Cohen, J. (1997). Power and Precision. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1995). A practical guide to prevention effectiveness: Decision and economic analysis. Atlanta: Author.
Cochran, W. G., & Rubin, D. B. (1973). Controlling bias in observational studies: A review. Sankhya, A 35, 417–446.
Cohen, M. A. (1998). The monetary value of saving a high-risk youth. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 14, 5–33.
Collett, D. (1994). Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research. New York: Chapman & Hall.
Culhane, S. E., & Blechman, E. A. (1994). Depressive, aggressive, and prosocial coping styles: A case for the comorbidity of adult depression and aggression. Unpublished manuscript, University of Colorado at Boulder.
Davidson II, W. S., Redner, R., Blakely, C. H., Mitchell, C. M., & Emshoff, J. G. (1987). Diversion of juvenile offenders: An experimental comparison. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 55, 68–75.
Dembo, R., Turner, G., Chin, C. S., Schmeidler, J., Borden, P., & Manning, D. (1995). Predictors of recidivism to a juvenile assessment center. The International Journal of the Addictions, 30, 1425–1452.
Dishion, T. J., McCord, J., & Poulin, F. (1999). When interventions harm: Peer groups and problem behavior. American Psychologist, 54, 755–764.
Drake, C. (1993). Effects of misspecification of the propensity score on estimators of treatment effect. Biometrics, 49, 1231–1236.
Duncan, G. J., & Brooks-Gunn, J. (1997). Income effects across the life span: Integration and interpretation. In G. J. Duncan & J. Brooks-Gunn (Eds.), Consequences of growing up poor (pp. 596–610). New York: Russell Sage.
D'Unger, A. V., Land, K. C., McCall, P., & Nagin, D. S. (1998). How many latent classes of delinquent/criminal careers? Results from mixed Poisson regression analyses. American Journal of Sociology, 103, 1593–1630.
French, M. T. (1995). Economic evaluation of drug abuse treatment programs: Methodology and findings. American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, 21, 111–135.
French, M. T., Rachal, J. V., & Hubbard, R. L. (1991). Conceptual framework for estimating the social costs of drug abuse. Journal of Health and Social Policy, 2, 1–22.
Hawkins, J. D., Jenson, J. M., Catalano, R. F., & Wells, E. A. (1991). Effects of a skills training intervention with juvenile delinquents. Research on Social Work Practice, 1, 107–121.
Heien, D. M., & Pittman, D. J. (1993). The external costs of alcohol abuse. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 54, 302–307.
Heinsman, D. T., & Shadish, W. R. (1996). Assignment methods in experimentation: When do nonrandomized experiments approximate answers from randomized experiments? Psychological Methods, 1, 154–169.
Kazdin, A. E. (1990). Psychotherapy for children and adolescents. Annual Review of Psychology, 41, 21–54.
Kazdin, A. E. (1998). Research Design in Clinical Psychology. New York: Allyn & Bacon.
Lavori, P. W., & Dawson, R. (1998). Developing and comparing treatment strategies: An annotated portfolio of designs. Psychopharmacology Bulletin, 34, 13–18.
Lipsey, M. W. (1992). Juvenile delinquency treatment: A metaanalytic inquiry into the variability of effects. In T. D. Cook, H. Cooper, D. S. Cordray, H. Hartmann, L. V. Hedges, R. J. Light, T. A. Louis, & F. Mosteller (Eds.), Meta-analysis for explanation: A casebook (pp. 83–127). New York: Russell Sage.
McClellan, M., McNeil, B. J., & Newhouse, J. P. (1994). Does more intensive treatment of acute myocardial infarction in the elderly reduce mortality? Analysis using instrumental variables. Journal of the American Medical Association, 272, 859–866.
McCord, J. (1992). The Cambridge-Somerville Study: A pioneering longitudinal experimental study of delinquency prevention. In J. McCord & R. E. Tremblay, Preventing antisocial behavior: Interventions from birth through adolescence (pp. 196–206). New York: Guilford.
McKay, J. R., Alterman, A. I., McLellan, A. T., Boardman, C. R., Mulvaney, F. D., & O'Brien, C. P. (1998). Random versus nonrandom assignment in the evaluation of treatment for cocaine abusers. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 697–701.
Mecartney, C. A., Styles, M. B., & Morrow, K.V. (1994). Mentoring in the juvenile justice system: Findings from two pilot programs. Philadelphia: Public/Private Ventures.
Moffitt, T. E. (1989). Accommodating self-report methods to a low delinquency culture: A longitudinal study from New Zealand. In M. W. Klein (Ed.), Cross-national research in self-reported crime and delinquency (pp. 43–66). Norwell,MA: Kluwer Academic.
Montgomery, I. M., Torbet, P. M., Malloy, D. A., Adamcik, L. P., Toner, M. J., & Andrews, J. (October, 1994). What works: Promising interventions in juvenile justice: Program report. Pittsburgh: National Center for Juvenile Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP), U.S. Department of Justice.
Mulvey, E. P., Arthur, M. W., & Reppucci, N. D. (1993). The prevention and treatment of juvenile delinquency: A review of the research. Clinical Psychology Review, 13, 133–167.
Ollendick, T. H. (1996). Violence in youth: Where do we go from here? Behavior therapy's response. Behavior Therapy, 27, 485–514.
Peters, M., Thomas, D., Zamberlan, C., & Caliber Associates (1997). Boot camps for juvenile offenders. Program Summary. Washington, D.C.: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, U.S. Department of Justice.
Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70, 41–55.
Rosenbaum, P.R. & Rubin, D. B. (1984). Reducing bias in observational studies using subclassification on the propensity score. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 516–524.
Rubin, D. (1974). Estimating causal effects of treatment in randomized and non-randomized studies. Journal of Educational Psychology, 66, 688–701.
Sechrest, L. White, S., & Brown, E. (Eds.) (1979). Rehabilitation of criminal offenders: Problems and prospects. Washington, DC: National Research Council.
Slicker, E. K., & Palmer, D. J. (1993). Mentoring at-risk high school students: Evaluation of a school-based program. The School Counselor, 40, 327–334.
Tate, D. C., Reppucci, N. D., & Mulvey, E. P. (1995). Violent juvenile delinquents: Treatment effectiveness and implications for future action. American Psychologist, 50, 777–781.
U.S. Department of Justice (1987). Recidivism among young parolees (NCJ-104916). Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin.
Visher, C. A., Lattimore, P. K., & Linster, R. L. (1991). Predicting the recidivism of serious youthful offenders using survival models. Criminology, 29, 329–366.
Werner, E. E. (1989). Protective factors and individual resilience. In S. J. Meisels & J. P. Shonkoff (Eds.), Handbook of early intervention: Theory, practice, and analysis (pp. 97–116). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Yates, B. (1995). Cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and beyond. Evolving models for the scientist-manager-practitioner. Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 2, 385–398.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Helberg Consulting
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Blechman, E.A., Maurice, A., Buecker, B. et al. Can Mentoring or Skill Training Reduce Recidivism? Observational Study with Propensity Analysis. Prev Sci 1, 139–155 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010073222476
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010073222476