Elsevier

NeuroImage

Volume 75, 15 July 2013, Pages 58-67
NeuroImage

Prediction of individual subject's age across the human lifespan using diffusion tensor imaging: A machine learning approach

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2013.02.055Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Machine-learning is used to predict age using whole-brain diffusion tensor images.

  • A cross-validation approach is used to separate training and testing datasets.

  • White matter follows a rational-quadratic trajectory peaking at 21.8 years.

  • Diffusivity in grey-matter tissue increases with maturation and ageing.

Abstract

Diffusion tensor imaging has the potential to be used as a neuroimaging marker of natural ageing and assist in elucidating trajectories of cerebral maturation and ageing. In this study, we applied a multivariate technique relevance vector regression (RVR) to predict individual subject's age using whole brain fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), axial diffusivity (AD) and radial diffusivity (RD) from a cohort of 188 subjects aged 4–85 years. High prediction accuracy as derived from Pearson correlation coefficient of actual versus predicted age (FA — r = 0.870 p < 0.0001; MD — r = 0.896 p < 0.0001; AD — r = 0.895 p < 0.0001; RD — r = 0.899 p < 0.0001) was achieved. Cerebral white-matter regions that contributed to these predictions include; corpus callosum, cingulum bundles, posterior longitudinal fasciculus and the cerebral peduncle. A post-hoc analysis of these regions showed that FA follows a nonlinear rational-quadratic trajectory across the lifespan peaking at approximately 21.8 years. The MD, RD and AD volumes were particularly useful for making predictions using grey matter cerebral regions. These results suggest that diffusion tensor imaging measurements can reliably predict individual subject's age and demonstrate that FA cerebral maturation and ageing patterns follow a non-linear trajectory with a noteworthy peaking age. These data will contribute to the understanding of neurobiology of cerebral maturation and ageing. Most notably, from a neuropsychiatric perspective our results may allow differentiation of cerebral changes that may occur due to natural maturation and ageing, and those due to developmental or neuropsychiatric disorders.

Introduction

Post-mortem studies have previously shown that the human brain undergoes several changes during maturation and ageing. These changes include, myelin level changes (Benes et al., 1994), synaptic density variations (Huttenlocher, 1979, Huttenlocher and de Courten, 1987) and Schwann cell subunit density changes (Kanda et al., 1991). Recently though, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques such as diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) have allowed characterization of anatomical tissue in vivo. This has led to increased interest in applying DTI measurements in lifespan cerebral maturation and ageing studies as demonstrated in these detailed reviews (Cascio et al., 2007, Gunning-Dixon et al., 2009, Johansen-Berg and Behrens, 2009, Moseley, 2002, Sullivan and Pfefferbaum, 2006).

Several DTI microstructural measurements have proved to be particularly important in this endeavour and below we briefly explore these measurements. First, fractional anisotropy (FA) is used to quantify tissue water diffusion directionality or anisotropy in vivo (Basser and Pierpaoli, 1996). A higher FA value (maximum = 1, minimum = 0) represents diffusion occurring along one direction but largely restricted in all other directions (Johansen-Berg and Behrens, 2009). Higher FA values are often associated with highly myelinated white-matter tracts and vice versa (Hasan et al., 2008, Klingberg et al., 1999, Kochunov et al., 2012). Numerous studies have used FA as a proxy measure of myelin levels with success (Abe et al., 2002, Barnea-Goraly et al., 2005, Eluvathingal et al., 2007, Grieve et al., 2007, Hasan et al., 2008, Head et al., 2004, Hsu et al., 2010, Kennedy and Raz, 2009, Kochunov et al., 2012, Lebel et al., 2008, Lebel et al., 2012, Ota et al., 2006, Pfefferbaum et al., 2000, Salat et al., 2005a, Schmithorst et al., 2002, Westlye et al., 2010). In a nutshell, these studies point to two consistent themes. First, FA increases consistently during healthy childhood and adolescence in a majority of white matter tracts. Second, FA decreases consistently with ageing. These results have also been confirmed by white matter volumetric studies showing that white matter tissue undergoes accelerated volumetric changes during early and late life with a plateau in early and middle adulthood (Westlye et al., 2010). Specifically, age related FA decline has been reported in anterior cingulum bundles, frontal gyrus, cerebral peduncle and corpus callosum (Brown et al., 2012, Malykhin et al., 2011, Pfefferbaum et al., 2005, Salat et al., 2005a, Sullivan and Pfefferbaum, 2006, Virta et al., 1999). Notably, FA decline is statistically comparable in both male and female and linear from about 20 years onwards (Malykhin et al., 2011, Ota et al., 2006, Pfefferbaum and Sullivan, 2003, Sullivan and Pfefferbaum, 2006, Virta et al., 1999).

Other DTI measurements which offer complementary information not available with FA include radial diffusivity (RD), mean diffusivity (MD) and axial diffusivity (AD). Since tissue water molecular anisotropy and diffusivity are not only specific to white-matter tissue (Q. Wang et al., 2010), we envisaged that these additional DTI-derived metrics may be predictive of individual subject's age as well to help in elucidating the cerebral maturation and ageing process in both grey and white matter tissues. Correspondingly, several studies have recently applied MD, AD and RD to study diffusivity in both white and grey matter tissues with success (Benedetti et al., 2006, Kumar et al., 2012, Ota et al., 2006, Song et al., 2002, Song et al., 2003, Stadlbauer et al., 2008b, Wang et al., 2010a). In particular, studies comparing healthy young and older adults conclude that AD and MD in grey matter tissue increase considerably with ageing (Abe et al., 2008, Bhagat and Beaulieu, 2004, Camara et al., 2007, Hasan, 2010, Hasan and Frye, 2011, Kochunov et al., 2010, Liu et al., 2012, Pfefferbaum et al., 2010, Stadlbauer et al., 2008a).

However, despite gaining significant insights into cerebral maturation and ageing using these DTI measurements, many studies preceding this report have mainly used pre-defined regions-of-interest (ROIs) and to some extent whole-brain data with univariate data analysis techniques (Johansen-Berg and Behrens, 2009, Whitcher et al., 2007). In this study, we adopted a multivariate machine-learning technique with whole-brain FA, MD, AD and RD to predict individual subject's age. There are two notable benefits in adopting this approach. First, the ability to accurately and efficiently decode a continuous variable (e.g. age) from neuroimaging scans (Haynes and Rees, 2006, Johnston et al., 2012, Mwangi et al., 2012a, Mwangi et al., 2012b). This is achieved by separating training and test data using a cross-validation process. Second, the possibility to select anatomical regions relevant to the decoding process, a step commonly known as feature subset selection (FSS) in machine learning. This process takes into account interactions of full spatial anatomical patterns without necessarily making any a-priori assumptions (Ziegler et al., 2012). This is particularly important as it has been reported that cerebral ageing is a ‘global’ process affecting major white-matter tracts simultaneously (Penke et al., 2010).

Multivariate machine learning regression models have recently been used to decode continuous targets (e.g. age, clinical scores) from neuroimaging scans with success (Brown et al., 2012, Cherubini et al., 2009, Dosenbach et al., 2010, Formisano et al., 2008, Franke et al., 2010, Kohannim et al., 2012, Mwangi et al., 2012a, Stonnington et al., 2010, Wang et al., 2010b).

In this study, we applied the relevance vector regression (RVR) algorithm (Tipping, 2001) to predict individual subject's age using whole brain FA, MD, RD and AD volumes. Specific benefits of using RVR over other equivalent algorithms such as support vector regression (SVR) (Smola and Scholkopf, 2004) should be noted. First, RVR selects relatively few features (sparse) resulting to efficiency in making predictions (Tipping, 2001). Second, RVR estimates model ‘nuisance’ or regularisation parameters automatically (Bishop, 2006, Tipping, 2001). In this study, anatomical voxels (features) relevant in making accurate predictions were selected using a multivariate recursive feature elimination method (Guyon and Elisseeff, 2003). A post-hoc analysis of these ‘relevant’ anatomical features was used to evaluate cross-sectional cerebral maturation and ageing trajectories. A major objective was to elucidate whether these maturation and ageing trajectories follow linear or non-linear paths.

Section snippets

Subjects and DTI acquisition protocol

Raw diffusion tensor scans were acquired from the International Neuroimaging Data Sharing Initiative (INDI) online database (http://fcon_1000.projects.nitrc.org/indi/pro/nki.html). Additional variables included subjects' age and a battery of clinical assessment scores. This sample was provided by the Nathan Kline Institute (NKI, NY, USA) as part of the ‘original NKI-Rockland sample’. All necessary approvals and procedures for human subject studies were followed as required by NKI. DTI images

Results

Fig. 4 summarizes RVR age prediction results from the four DTI measurements (FA, MD, AD and RD) in whole-brain white and grey matter. Overall, RD was the best in predicting age (r = 0.899, p < 0.0001). Predictions from all four DTI measurements were significant (p < 0.0001). Younger subjects (less than median age of 30.5 years) were predicted more accurately than older subjects (more than median age) as shown in Table 1.

Interestingly, whilst the model was exposed to whole-brain DTI volumes in MD, RD

Discussion

To our knowledge, this is the first study to report predictions of individual subject's age using whole-brain DTI-derived scalar metrics. All four DTI measurement volumes (FA, MD, RD and AD) successfully predicted age with high accuracy as evaluated using various statistical measures for multivariate regression models. These results demonstrate that although brain maturation and healthy ageing effects may be subtle, DTI measurements contain sufficient information to detect these effects and

Acknowledgments

Data used in this study were obtained from the International Neuroimaging Data Sharing Initiative (INDI) online database (http://fcon_1000.projects.nitrc.org/indi/pro/nki.html) as part of the original Nathan Kline Institute/Rockland sample. We acknowledge the entire INDI team involved in data acquisition and management especially Dr. Maarten Mennes for answering various questions regarding the data. The INDI team was not involved in data analysis or report preparation.

Conflict of interest

This

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