Reoffending among serious juvenile offenders: A developmental perspective
Introduction
Juvenile/adolescent deviancy is strongly linked to adult criminality (Nagin & Paternoster, 1991). Why adolescents are likely to commit delinquent acts as well as when and why they desist or reoffend are central questions to disciplines, such as criminology and developmental psychology. Although these issues still pose challenges for today's scholars (Schubert et al., 2004), developmental perspectives have identified important factors that provide a better understanding of offending in adolescence. (Blumstein et al., 1988, Moffitt, 1993, Monahan et al., 2009, Piquero et al., 2003, Steinberg and Cauffman, 1996). These perspectives dispute the long-standing idea that certain traits are acquired early in childhood and remain stable over time (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990) and argue that developmental changes should be monitored over time to better understand delinquency.
Developmental well-being directly relates to decision-making process and behavioral outcomes in adolescence and early adulthood (Cauffman and Steinberg, 2000, Moffitt, 1993, Monahan et al., 2009, Steinberg and Cauffman, 1996). This well-being may vary as a function of both internal and external influences. For example, while age is the strongest predictor of maturation (internal), early exposure to severe violence (external) could affect one's psychosocial development differently than one's peers (Haynie, Petts, Maimon, & Piquero, 2009). Differential maturity among the same-age peers can be observed even in stable environments (Sweeten, Piquero, & Steinberg, 2013). In line with these findings, one can argue that maturity is a context-based concept, rather than a normative stage that operates the same way for each person.
Since time is a central concept in maturation, the link between developmental well-being and antisocial behaviors should be assessed in a longitudinal framework. As Loeber and Le Blanc (1990) pointed out, studying antisocial behaviors over time can help us see the differences in offending continuity among individuals. Monitoring individuals over an extended period of time provides information on the onset of criminal behaviors, persistence, and desistance as well as the change within individuals over time (Mulvey et al., 2004). However, although prior longitudinal research on maturational differences and antisocial outcomes has contributed to our understanding of juvenile/adolescent criminal behaviors in general, few studies have examined patterns of reoffending among adolescents who are already in the juvenile justice system (Mulvey et al., 2004).
In light of these concerns, the current study investigates the patterns and timing of reoffending among juveniles charged with serious offenses. The influence of psychosocial maturity on both reoffending and its timing are examined along with other factors, such as early alcohol use, exposure to violence, arrest within family, or childhood behavioral problems. Just as developmental psychologists follow children's cognitive and moral reasoning developments over time, this study probes the tendency to reoffend among adolescents using consecutive time windows. In addition, since official records may not be ideal for examining developmental offending tendencies (Loeber & Le Blanc, 1990), an alternative approach is taken in the current paper. Unlike the traditional recidivism studies that used official arrest information, the current study utilizes self-reported problem behaviors as the measure of reoffending, which may provide a different, perhaps a more realistic picture, especially in terms of desistance.
Another intended contribution is methodological. Several factors that contribute to reoffending are investigated through survival analysis in a dynamic setting in which time-varying variables are updated in each time window. Unlike traditional event history analysis (survival analysis), in which a case is excluded from the analysis once it fails, a more sophisticated approach is used. Failures in event history analysis refer to certain occurrences, such as death, termination of a job, or malfunctioning of a machine, which can be considered as non-repeatable events. However, an individual can recidivate repeatedly as long as s/he does not get incapacitated. This study intends to overcome this limitation by employing repeated-failure models, in which subjects are allowed to reoffend without exclusion from the analysis. In so doing, additional clarity with respect to the patterning of juvenile delinquency can be achieved through monitoring subjects in dynamic time settings.
This dynamic monitoring is important for several reasons. Observing habitual offending tendencies can illuminate our understanding of desistance, as well. The extent to which researchers can better isolate the correlates of habitual offending helps interventions target those risk factors, which in turn may be helpful in facilitating the desistance process as well. Also, by incorporating the concept of psychosocial maturity as a dynamic trait that evolves over time, it is possible to examine how these changes influence desistance. Finally, since the use of repeated-failure models is rare in criminology, the current study aims to explore the efficiency of these models with discrete-time framework through comparing several rival models.
Section snippets
Prior studies
Reoffending might be triggered by either the initial sources of criminality that might have led to the first offense, or by new factors that can reinforce the criminal decision making process. Prior research findings have indicated that both sources are directly related to the environment in which juveniles live. DeJong (1997) examined the effect of a custodial sentence on time until rearrest and found that individuals with fewer social bonds were less likely to be deterred after an
The current study
The shortcomings of previous trajectory studies undertaken with samples of adjudicated offenders were documented by Mulvey et al. (2010). Briefly, they used only official records of offending, were based on single sites, contained primarily White subjects (with the exception of the California Youth Authority parolees), and utilized only a limited number of important theoretical predictors that relate to desistance (Mulvey et al., 2010). Addressing the limitations of previous longitudinal
Sample
This study examines the data obtained from the Pathways to Desistance study, a longitudinal examination of 1354 adjudicated adolescents in Phoenix (N = 654) and Philadelphia (N = 700). Adolescents who were between 14 and 18 years of age, and who had been charged with a felony or serious offense were enrolled in the study (184 females and 1170 males).3
One-time failure results
Table 1 presents the results of one-time failure models for violence-related offenses and provides a comparison between logistic regression and a Cox model. Initially, age, gender, race variables, parent education, street time, and delinquent peers are introduced in the Logistic (0) model. Then, the year variable is included in the Logistic (1) model. The inclusion of the year variable diminishes the effect size of street time in comparison to Logistic (0). Street time is negatively associated
Discussion
This study examined factors that hasten the reoffending process for adolescents charged with serious offenses. Two types of failures were defined, and these failures were analyzed separately, one in a traditional survival model (failure exclusion) and another in a repeated-failure model (no exclusion). Since desistance can be seen as a process, rather than a sharp threshold (Mulvey et al., 2004), the repeated-failure models were estimated to capture the continuum in criminal tendencies. The
Acknowledgement
Special thanks to Dr. Alex R. Piquero and Dr. John. L. Worrall for their comments during the editing process of this manuscript.
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