Elsevier

Forest Policy and Economics

Volume 36, November 2013, Pages 14-26
Forest Policy and Economics

Coupling climate change and forest policy: A multiple streams analysis of two German case studies

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2013.01.009Get rights and content

Abstract

Climate change may affect forest management not only through predicted ecological impacts on forests, but also by reframing perspectives on land use issues, and thus changing forest policies. In this paper, forest policy making in the light of climate change is analyzed in two German Laender, Bavaria and North Rhine Westphalia, drawing on the Multiple Streams Framework. Empirically, document analysis and expert interviews substantiate this analysis.

The formation of climate change related forest policy occurred differently in both Laender. In Bavaria, several factors triggered a successful integration of climate change adaptation measures related to forests into one program, the “Bavarian Climate Programme 2020”. These factors were, for instance, an early problematization of climate change by forest science, a ‘condensation’ of the problem into particular areas of high need for action, the possibility to rely on already available (in parts, implemented), well-proven, and applicable forest policy measures, and the coordinated and entrepreneurial activities of the forest sector as a whole. In North Rhine Westphalia, the political framework conditions for a formation of climate change related forest policy were less favorable, and, hence, no broader forest policy on the issue occurred. Recent political changes, however, may allow for new prospects.

We conclude that the extent to which the issue of climate change is integrated into forest policy depends on the overall framing of climate policy and the opportunities for the forest sector to substantiate the necessity of such a link. The preparedness and activities of the latter are then needed in order to utilize possible policy windows and to receive resources for forest climate policy measures. Forest science plays an important role by influencing the agenda, indicating challenges and providing scientific criteria to determine and rationalize specific measures.

Highlights

► The interplay of forest and climate policy in two German Laender is examined. ► Specifics of the forest sector and of the general climate policy are most relevant. ► Forest policy entrepreneurs and the contribution of forest science are crucial. ► Forest adaptation policies mostly contained well-known, no new measures.

Introduction

Climate change poses a multifaceted and complex challenge for forest policy and management. Its impacts on forests and forest management options may be large and unprecedented. Problem description and evaluation, however, are mostly science-based and abstract. Hence, regardless of many attempts to visualize the consequences of future climates on forests, the challenges remain intangible. The double role forests play in simultaneously being impacted by climate change (adaptation need) while impacting climate change (mitigation potential) add to the complexity (cf. Hof et al., 2010). Moreover, uncertainties are intrinsic to the prognosis of a future climate, which increases the general uncertainty surrounding long-term related decision making in forest management (cf. Hoogstra, 2008, Hoogstra and Schanz, 2008).

Yet, climate change may affect forest management not only through predicted ecological impacts on forests, but also due to changing forest policies. Climate change has been a dominant topic on the political agenda throughout the last years. It has been elaborated in adaptation strategies as well as climate and energy policy-related programs (for Germany, e.g. BMU, 2007, Bundesregierung, 2008). Although the issue has somewhat lost political attraction following the poor results of COP 15 in Copenhagen, and despite shifting agendas due to the economic and financial turnovers of the last years, it has influenced (and still influences) land use policies by challenging and reframing perspectives on land use issues.

In this paper, we analyze forest policy making in the light of climate change in two German Länder (states): Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia. Our focus is on how forest policy makers have responded to developments in climate politics and climate change-related forest policy problems, and how climate change was processed and used in the forest policy community.

The paper is structured as follows: first, we shortly reflect on the state of knowledge related to the influence of climate change on forest management and policy (Section 2). Second, we introduce the Multiple Streams Framework, which serves as an insightful theoretical heuristic for our cases (Section 3), followed by a short introduction into our methodological approach and case studies (Section 4). Third, we describe and analyze the two cases (5 Addressing climate change: forest policy making in Bavaria, 6 Climate change and forest policy in North Rhine-Westphalia). Finally, we discuss the factors that influenced the forest policy processes (Section 7). This is followed by conclusions regarding the use of the Multiple Stream Framework in general and forest policy processes in particular, including our observation of what the formation of climate change related forest policies meant for forest biodiversity issues (Section 8).

Section snippets

How climate change changes forest policy making

There is a large number of publications analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on forests, forest management and conservation (for an overview cf. Milad et al., 2011, Allen et al., 2010, Lindner et al., 2010). Most of these studies investigate the current effects of climate change on forest ecosystems or model potential future impacts. Several papers include management or policy recommendations (e.g. Schoene and Bernier, 2011, Spies et al., 2010, Hemery, 2008). At the same time, many

Theoretical approach: Multiple Streams Framework (MSF)

We use the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) developed by Kingdon (1995) (based on the Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice by Cohen et al. (1972), and adapted by Zahariadis (2003)), for the purpose of our subsequent case study analysis.

The MSF is applicable to policy formation under conditions of ambiguity, that is, when there are many ways of thinking about an issue, and more information does not help to identify a straight-forward technical solution (Zahariadis, 2003, 2 seq.). It

Methodological approach

In the following, the formation of climate change related forest policies will be analyzed for two German Länder. We have selected the two Länder because they represent two distinct poles of German culture, economics, and socio-political environment. They also differ in their forest policy communities and institutions. Hence, we assumed that different cultural, economic and socio-political conditions may trigger different developments within the forest politics, problems and policy streams.

The rise (and fall?) of climate change as a major policy issue in Bavaria

As in many western countries, climate change became an issue in Bavarian policies from the 1980s onwards, but did not achieve the status of a major policy problem until the mid-2000s. It was then that, inter alia, the attention caused by the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, published at the end of October 2006, and the Fourth Assessment Report-IPCC, published early in 2007, resulted in sharply increased public attention on climate change issues in many countries. Hence, in 2007,

The delayed rise of NRW's climate policy

The peak of climate change as a high profile issue in 2007 led to a different reaction by the political system in NRW, when compared to Bavaria. Generally, the climate policy discourse in NRW is dominated by the issue of greenhouse gas emissions connected to its huge and energy-intense economy. NRW accounts for more than one third of Germany's carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, emission reductions play a crucial role for climate policy.

In 2001, a comprehensive “Climate Protection Concept” was

Discussion: interpreting the formation of climate change related forest policies

The peak of climate change as a policy issue in 2007 in Germany (see Section 5.1) resulted in different policy responses in the two cases we analyzed. Table 4 compares dimensions that were relevant for the formation of climate change related forest policies in both Länder.

In Bavaria, the comprehensive “Bavarian Climate Program 2020” included – besides research projects – two forest policy measures (the forest transformation program and the “Mountain Forests Offensive”, see Section 5.3). A

Conclusions

What can be learned from our case studies?

First of all, regarding the application of the MSF, our case studies demonstrate the usefulness of this framework as a concept that illuminates policy formation in the forest policy community. The MSF fits well into the reality of forest policy entrepreneurs who use “windows of opportunity” in such a way that they attach already available sector policy concepts to new governmental programs. Several factors that were described to be supportive for a

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) for supporting our research on forest biodiversity and climate change policy through its Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (BfN), in particular within the research project: ‘Forests and Climate Change’ (reference number 3508 83 0600). We also want to thank all interview partners for rendering this research possible.

All views expressed in this article, and errors it may contain,

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    This article belongs to the Special Issue: Forest and conservation policy in a changing climate.

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