Coupling climate change and forest policy: A multiple streams analysis of two German case studies☆
Highlights
► The interplay of forest and climate policy in two German Laender is examined. ► Specifics of the forest sector and of the general climate policy are most relevant. ► Forest policy entrepreneurs and the contribution of forest science are crucial. ► Forest adaptation policies mostly contained well-known, no new measures.
Introduction
Climate change poses a multifaceted and complex challenge for forest policy and management. Its impacts on forests and forest management options may be large and unprecedented. Problem description and evaluation, however, are mostly science-based and abstract. Hence, regardless of many attempts to visualize the consequences of future climates on forests, the challenges remain intangible. The double role forests play in simultaneously being impacted by climate change (adaptation need) while impacting climate change (mitigation potential) add to the complexity (cf. Hof et al., 2010). Moreover, uncertainties are intrinsic to the prognosis of a future climate, which increases the general uncertainty surrounding long-term related decision making in forest management (cf. Hoogstra, 2008, Hoogstra and Schanz, 2008).
Yet, climate change may affect forest management not only through predicted ecological impacts on forests, but also due to changing forest policies. Climate change has been a dominant topic on the political agenda throughout the last years. It has been elaborated in adaptation strategies as well as climate and energy policy-related programs (for Germany, e.g. BMU, 2007, Bundesregierung, 2008). Although the issue has somewhat lost political attraction following the poor results of COP 15 in Copenhagen, and despite shifting agendas due to the economic and financial turnovers of the last years, it has influenced (and still influences) land use policies by challenging and reframing perspectives on land use issues.
In this paper, we analyze forest policy making in the light of climate change in two German Länder (states): Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia. Our focus is on how forest policy makers have responded to developments in climate politics and climate change-related forest policy problems, and how climate change was processed and used in the forest policy community.
The paper is structured as follows: first, we shortly reflect on the state of knowledge related to the influence of climate change on forest management and policy (Section 2). Second, we introduce the Multiple Streams Framework, which serves as an insightful theoretical heuristic for our cases (Section 3), followed by a short introduction into our methodological approach and case studies (Section 4). Third, we describe and analyze the two cases (5 Addressing climate change: forest policy making in Bavaria, 6 Climate change and forest policy in North Rhine-Westphalia). Finally, we discuss the factors that influenced the forest policy processes (Section 7). This is followed by conclusions regarding the use of the Multiple Stream Framework in general and forest policy processes in particular, including our observation of what the formation of climate change related forest policies meant for forest biodiversity issues (Section 8).
Section snippets
How climate change changes forest policy making
There is a large number of publications analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on forests, forest management and conservation (for an overview cf. Milad et al., 2011, Allen et al., 2010, Lindner et al., 2010). Most of these studies investigate the current effects of climate change on forest ecosystems or model potential future impacts. Several papers include management or policy recommendations (e.g. Schoene and Bernier, 2011, Spies et al., 2010, Hemery, 2008). At the same time, many
Theoretical approach: Multiple Streams Framework (MSF)
We use the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) developed by Kingdon (1995) (based on the Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice by Cohen et al. (1972), and adapted by Zahariadis (2003)), for the purpose of our subsequent case study analysis.
The MSF is applicable to policy formation under conditions of ambiguity, that is, when there are many ways of thinking about an issue, and more information does not help to identify a straight-forward technical solution (Zahariadis, 2003, 2 seq.). It
Methodological approach
In the following, the formation of climate change related forest policies will be analyzed for two German Länder. We have selected the two Länder because they represent two distinct poles of German culture, economics, and socio-political environment. They also differ in their forest policy communities and institutions. Hence, we assumed that different cultural, economic and socio-political conditions may trigger different developments within the forest politics, problems and policy streams.
The rise (and fall?) of climate change as a major policy issue in Bavaria
As in many western countries, climate change became an issue in Bavarian policies from the 1980s onwards, but did not achieve the status of a major policy problem until the mid-2000s. It was then that, inter alia, the attention caused by the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, published at the end of October 2006, and the Fourth Assessment Report-IPCC, published early in 2007, resulted in sharply increased public attention on climate change issues in many countries. Hence, in 2007,
The delayed rise of NRW's climate policy
The peak of climate change as a high profile issue in 2007 led to a different reaction by the political system in NRW, when compared to Bavaria. Generally, the climate policy discourse in NRW is dominated by the issue of greenhouse gas emissions connected to its huge and energy-intense economy. NRW accounts for more than one third of Germany's carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, emission reductions play a crucial role for climate policy.
In 2001, a comprehensive “Climate Protection Concept” was
Discussion: interpreting the formation of climate change related forest policies
The peak of climate change as a policy issue in 2007 in Germany (see Section 5.1) resulted in different policy responses in the two cases we analyzed. Table 4 compares dimensions that were relevant for the formation of climate change related forest policies in both Länder.
In Bavaria, the comprehensive “Bavarian Climate Program 2020” included – besides research projects – two forest policy measures (the forest transformation program and the “Mountain Forests Offensive”, see Section 5.3). A
Conclusions
What can be learned from our case studies?
First of all, regarding the application of the MSF, our case studies demonstrate the usefulness of this framework as a concept that illuminates policy formation in the forest policy community. The MSF fits well into the reality of forest policy entrepreneurs who use “windows of opportunity” in such a way that they attach already available sector policy concepts to new governmental programs. Several factors that were described to be supportive for a
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) for supporting our research on forest biodiversity and climate change policy through its Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (BfN), in particular within the research project: ‘Forests and Climate Change’ (reference number 3508 83 0600). We also want to thank all interview partners for rendering this research possible.
All views expressed in this article, and errors it may contain,
References (103)
- et al.
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests
Forest Ecology and Management
(2010) Understanding policy change: multiple streams and emissions trading in Germany
Global Environmental Change
(2008)- et al.
Implementing REDD +: lessons from analysis of forest governance
Environmental Science and Policy
(2011) - et al.
Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems
Forest Ecology and Management
(2010) - et al.
Climate change and nature conservation in Central European forests: a review of consequences, concepts and challenges
Forest Ecology and Management
(2011) - et al.
Seeing REDD + as a project of environmental governance
Environmental Science and Policy
(2011) - et al.
Multiple streams in EU policy-making: the case of the 2005 sugar reform
Journal of European Public Policy
(2011) - et al.
Forstliche Standorterkundung mit digitalen Werkzeugen. Ein neuer Weg in Nordrhein-Westfalen
Wertermittlungsforum
(2005) Klimagipfel der Staatsregierung im Schneefernerhaus auf der Zugspitze. Pressemitteilung Nr. 140, 24.4.2007
Regierungserklärung des Bayerischen Ministerpräsidenten Dr. Edmund Stoiber am 17. Juli 2007 vor dem Bayerischen Landtag, Bayern 2020: Kinder. Bildung. Arbeit
Klimaschutzkonzept der bayerischen Staatsregierung. Fortschreibung 2003
Mit Energie in die Zukunft. Aufbruch Bayern! Regierungserklärung des Bayerischen Ministerpräsidenten Horst Seehofer am 28. Juni 2011 vor dem Bayerischen Landtag
Klimaprogramm Bayern 2020
Forstreform in NRW beschlossene Sache. Landesregierung verursacht forstpolitisches Tohuwabohu
Sigmar Gabriel: Klimaschutz nutzt auch Verbrauchern und Wirtschaft. Kabinett beschließt Klima- und Energiepaket. Pressemitteilung Nr. 224/07, 24.08.2007
Klimawandel – neue Herausforderung für den Schutzwald. Pressemitteilung 027/07/FA Alpen, 10.09.2007
Wälder im Klimastress. Bund Naturschutz fordert stabile Wälder mit Tanne und Buche. Pressemitteilung 097/LFGS Wald, 11.08.2006
Anpassung der Wälder an den Klimawandel: Optionen und Grenzen
Landbauforschung—vTI Agriculture and Forestry Research
Neun Thesen zu Klimawandel, Waldbau und Waldnaturschutz
AFZ-DerWald
Was Klimahüllen uns verschweigen
AFZ-DerWald
Klimawandel und Forstwirtschaft – Übereinstimmungen und Unterschiede bei der Einschätzung der Anpassungsnotwendigkeiten und Anpassungsstrategien der Bundesländer
Landbauforschung—vTI Agriculture and Forestry Research
Waldbauliche Anpassung der Wälder an den Klimawandel jetzt beginnen. Das klimatische “Superjahr 2003” wird nicht lange außergewöhnlich bleiben
LWF Aktuell
Surfing for problems: advocacy group strategy in U.S. forestry policy
The Policy Studies Journal
Die Bergwaldoffensive. Bayern geht neue Wege im Schutzwaldmanagement
LWF Aktuell
Heiße Luft und Schönrechnerei. Energie- und Klimaschutzstrategie der Landesregierung. 30.04.2008
Deutsche Anpassungsstrategie an den Klimawandel vom Bundeskabinett am 17. Dezember 2008 beschlossen
Understanding policy change as an epistemological and theoretical problem
Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice
A garbage can model of organizational choice
Administrative Science Quarterly
Jürgen Rüttgers bekommt virtuellen Besuch: Hunderte Klimaschützer belagern seine Facebook-Seite. Pressemitteilung 06.05.2010
New governance arrangements at the intersection of climate change and forest policy: institutional, political and regulatory dimensions
Public Administration
Waldbaustrategien unter sich ändernden Umweltbedingungen –Leitbilder, Zielsystem und Waldentwicklungstypen
Waldökologie, Landschaftsforschung und Naturschutz
Die politische Positionierung der Forstverwaltungen in Deutschland. Analyse der Selbst- und Fremdbilder forstpolitischer Akteure anhand ausgewählter Konfliktprozesse. Freiburger Schriften zur Forst- und Umweltpolitik, Band 9
Five misunderstandings about case-study-research
Qualitative Inquiry
Welchen Wald braucht ein zukunftsfähiges NRW?
National styles and policy sectors: explaining structural variation
Journal of Public Policy
Policy-windows for the declaration of protected areas—a comparative case study of East Germany and Guatemala
Die Strategie folgt den Institutionen: der Nachhaltigkeitsprozess in Bayern
Forest management and silvicultural responses to projected climate change impacts on European broadleaved trees and forests
International Forestry Review
Explaining local policy choices: a multiple streams analysis of municipal emergency management
Canadian Public Administration
Costs, benefits and interlinkages between adaptation and mitigation
…völlig verdorret und zu Grunde gegangen
LWF Aktuell
How (un)certain is the future in forestry? A comparative assessment of uncertainty in the forest and agricultural sector
Forest Science
Studying Public Policy: Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems
Analysing Public Policy
Trans-subsystem dynamics: policy topography, mass opinion, and policy change
The Policy Studies Journal
Cited by (0)
- ☆
This article belongs to the Special Issue: Forest and conservation policy in a changing climate.
- 1
Tel.: + 49 761 203 8502.