Report review
World outlook for nuclear power

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2012.12.001Get rights and content

Abstract

The Fukushima Daiichi accident of March 2011 has re-ignited the debate about the role of nuclear power in the future global energy mix. More than one and a half years after the accident, a somewhat clearer picture is emerging – different countries responded with different nuclear policies, e.g., one size does not fit all. While several countries confirmed or decided to phase-out the use of the technology or to cancel their plans of adding nuclear power to their future electricity generating mix, the majority of countries with operating nuclear power plants or plans to eventually start national nuclear power programmes continue with the implementation of their pre-Fukushima nuclear strategies albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Projections of future nuclear capacity expansion for the year 2030 show a likely shift of global nuclear generating capacities by about a decade but no significant retraction of national nuclear power programmes globally.

Highlights

► The Fukushima Daiichi accident will delay nuclear capacity expansion globally but will not reverse it. ► Different countries had different policy responses after the accident. ► The momentum of nuclear power expansion has already shifted to the fast growing Asian economies well before Fukushima. ► The momentum of nuclear power expansion is expected to remain concentrated there. ► The number of countries with operating nuclear power plants is expected to increase by 15% in 2030.

Section snippets

National policy responses

The Fukushima Daiichi accident of 11 March 2011 that was caused by a devastating earthquake and subsequent tsunami has re-ignited the debate about the role of nuclear power in the future global energy mix. Initial government policy responses, in large part fuelled by public pressure, pointed towards an even more uncertain future of the technology than before.

Clearly, a disaster such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident calls for reflection. In most countries with nuclear programmes, the immediate

Nuclear power today

As of 23 November 2012, the global fleet of nuclear power plants consisted of 437 reactors with a combined installed nuclear generating capacity of 371.8 GWe (375.5 GWe on 10 March 2011). Note: the total includes plants that currently are off-grid such as the remaining 48 reactors in Japan but not declared as permanently shut down. In 2011 nuclear power accounted for 12.3% of global electricity supply down from 13.5% the year before. Fig. 3 (left) depicts the regional distribution of nuclear

Outlook

Every year the IAEA develops projections of global nuclear power development derived from a country-by-country ‘bottom-up’ approach. They are established by a group of experts and based upon a review of nuclear power projects and programmes in Member States. The projections cover the period to 2030 with an outlook to 2050. The IAEA estimates should be viewed as very general trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review as energy and electricity demand and the role of

Conclusion

The Fukushima Daiichi accident and subsequent safety reviews and stress tests have significantly affected the global prospects for new nuclear build. The 2012 projections of total nuclear power generating capacity in 2030 is 8–16% lower than before the accident. However, globally, the accident is expected to slow down or delay growth in nuclear power but not to reverse it. On a nation-scale, the impact is more diverse and measures taken by countries have been varied: a number of countries

References (4)

  • T. Masuda, Outlook for Nuclear Power in Japan, Erice Seminars on Planetary Emergencies, August 18–24, Erice, Italy,...
  • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Nuclear Technology Review 2012, Vienna,...
There are more references available in the full text version of this article.

Cited by (31)

  • Reactor ageing and phase-out policies: global and regional prospects for nuclear power generation

    2020, Energy Policy
    Citation Excerpt :

    In 2010, Germany had 17 operational reactors and approved a policy allowing the extension of the operational lifetime of reactors by averagely 12 years (German Government, 2010). The Fukushima accident in 2011 determined a radical change: the oldest 8 reactors were immediately shut down, planning to close the remainder within 2022, well before the planned term (Rogner, 2013). Additional 3 reactors were shut down in the following years, so now Germany has 6 remaining operational reactors.

View all citing articles on Scopus
View full text