Report reviewWorld outlook for nuclear power
Highlights
► The Fukushima Daiichi accident will delay nuclear capacity expansion globally but will not reverse it. ► Different countries had different policy responses after the accident. ► The momentum of nuclear power expansion has already shifted to the fast growing Asian economies well before Fukushima. ► The momentum of nuclear power expansion is expected to remain concentrated there. ► The number of countries with operating nuclear power plants is expected to increase by 15% in 2030.
Section snippets
National policy responses
The Fukushima Daiichi accident of 11 March 2011 that was caused by a devastating earthquake and subsequent tsunami has re-ignited the debate about the role of nuclear power in the future global energy mix. Initial government policy responses, in large part fuelled by public pressure, pointed towards an even more uncertain future of the technology than before.
Clearly, a disaster such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident calls for reflection. In most countries with nuclear programmes, the immediate
Nuclear power today
As of 23 November 2012, the global fleet of nuclear power plants consisted of 437 reactors with a combined installed nuclear generating capacity of 371.8 GWe (375.5 GWe on 10 March 2011). Note: the total includes plants that currently are off-grid such as the remaining 48 reactors in Japan but not declared as permanently shut down. In 2011 nuclear power accounted for 12.3% of global electricity supply down from 13.5% the year before. Fig. 3 (left) depicts the regional distribution of nuclear
Outlook
Every year the IAEA develops projections of global nuclear power development derived from a country-by-country ‘bottom-up’ approach. They are established by a group of experts and based upon a review of nuclear power projects and programmes in Member States. The projections cover the period to 2030 with an outlook to 2050. The IAEA estimates should be viewed as very general trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review as energy and electricity demand and the role of
Conclusion
The Fukushima Daiichi accident and subsequent safety reviews and stress tests have significantly affected the global prospects for new nuclear build. The 2012 projections of total nuclear power generating capacity in 2030 is 8–16% lower than before the accident. However, globally, the accident is expected to slow down or delay growth in nuclear power but not to reverse it. On a nation-scale, the impact is more diverse and measures taken by countries have been varied: a number of countries
References (4)
- T. Masuda, Outlook for Nuclear Power in Japan, Erice Seminars on Planetary Emergencies, August 18–24, Erice, Italy,...
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Nuclear Technology Review 2012, Vienna,...
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