Natural gas reserve/production ratio in Russia, Iran, Qatar and Turkmenistan: A political and economic perspective
Introduction
Natural gas, applied in the world since mid twentieth century and the importance of which increases in energy market every day, is one of three main forms of fossil fuel in the world, along with coal and petroleum (Kakaee and Paykani, 2013). Natural gas is composed of hydrocarbon gas mixtures, predominantly methane, in changing amounts as well as ethane, propane and butane. (Victor et al., 2006). Among fossil fuels, natural gas is the one which emits the least carbondioxide per unit energy and the carbon density of which is less than the others. These positive characteristics enabled natural gas to penetrate effectively in the industrial market, especially local and commercial heating (MIT, 2011). Moreover, it is essential to develop low-carbon energy sources quickly in order to secure energy supply safety in the world and stem the tide of global climate change (Geng et al., 2014).
Natural gas reserves in the world are highly valued and their value is expected to increase in the future (Geng et al., 2014). It is stated that natural gas reserve of the world proven in 2013 is 185.7 trillion cubic meters and reserve/production ratio is 55.1 (BP, 2014). Especially the countries possessing reserves want to increase their shares in energy supply in order to derive benefit from the advantages of natural gas. On the other hand, other countries need to import in order to increase natural gas usage (Siddiqi, 2002). According to 2013 data, global natural gas ranking changes in different sources, but the first countries having natural gas reserves in the world are Iran, Russia, Qatar and Turkmenistan (BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2014, OPEC Oil and Gas Data, 2014). Natural gas reserve ratios of these countries, according to BP and OPEC, are seen in Fig. 1. Natural gas reserve amounts of the same countries are displayed in Fig. 2.
Reserve–production ratio (R/P) is closely related with the changing trend of production speed experimentally (Zhan, 2000). Proven reserve and available production ratio (R/P) is an indicator commonly used to assess the ability of a country to produce any material (for example; natural gas) which is not renewable for a long period as well as the status of local, regional and worldwide natural energy and mine sources (Siddiqi, 2002, Feygin and Satkin, 2004). When reserves remaining at the end of a specific year are divided by the production in that year, this ratio shows for how many years these reserves will survive, provided that production continues at the same level (BP, 2014). When talking about the problems of natural gas supply, it is beneficial to know R/P ratio for the near future (Siddiqi, 2002). “Reserves are considered proven if economic producibility is supported by either actual production or conclusive formation testing” (OPEC, 2014). Occasionally there are circumstances in which R/P ratio is not practical. Although R/P ratio indicates the regional differences between reserves and products, calculations regarding how long petroleum and natural gas will survive or when their usage will be limited are inaccurate (Seljom and Rosenberg, 2011). Reserve–production ratio (R/P) is not sensitive to increasing demand and decreasing production ratio. While net production amount during a long period can reflect reserve estimations, it is not possible to estimate when a specific date is used in a specific timeframe (Owen et al., 2010). While countries dealing with natural gas export fulfill their own needs, they also want to know how much energy they will export for the following decade. R/P ratio is not practical for estimation studies (Siddiqi, 2002).
In this study, the insufficiency of R/P ratio mentioned above will not create any obstacle because there will be no estimation about the natural gas status of the countries or no determination such as import or export needs of the countries. In this study, the world's top leading four countries having natural gas reserves namely Iran, Russia, Qatar and Turkmenistan are examined handled. Natural gas reserve–production ratio (R/P) changes depending on the economic and political developments of these countries in national and international fields are analyzed. At the end of the research, the effect of political and economic changes of the countries on the ratio of natural gas reserve/production is put forward.
Section snippets
Methodology
In this study, the world's top leading four countries having natural gas reserves namely Iran, Russia, Qatar and Turkmenistan are examined handled. Data for the study is based on data of national and international petroleum companies, civil institutions, national authorities and academic studies. The methodology suggested accordingly is structured as in Fig. 3. After determining the first four countries in terms of natural gas reserves, political events of these countries occurred since 1991
Political events in country
Energy resources are affecting one of the main factors in terms of international relations and foreign policy strategies in the 21st century. In this context, it can be said that countries determine their international actions through their stimulation of having energy, securing the safety of energy logistics and establishing control over world energy resources (Sevim, 2012). Reserve/production ratio of natural gas, the most important energy resource of the aforementioned four countries, can
R/P ratio in country
R/P ratios represent the length of time that remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at the previous year's rate. It is calculated by dividing remaining reserves at the end of the year by the production in that year. Proved reserves of natural gas are generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.
Discussion
The tables (Tables 1-4) above which display the political and economic status of the countries were chronologically combined with the graphics of reserve/production and assessments were made by analyses.
A politically important process began in Russian Federation in 2000 and Vladimir Putin was elected as the President. From that date on, political authority process continued although there were different namings because of legislational structure. Especially with the power of Putin, Russia put
Conclusion
Iran, Russia, Qatar and Turkmenistan, the top four countries with the highest natural gas reserves in the world, were examined in this study and the relationships between natural gas R/P ratios and political and economic changes in the countries have been analyzed. It has been observed that having natural gas reserves is important to become a leading power in the world policy, so natural gas reserve should be considered within the context of each countries goals, their relations with the other
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