Nuclear energy–Any solution for sustainability and climate protection?

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.047

Energy Policy

Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 56-63

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.047 Get rights and content

Abstract

For the future of nuclear power it will be decisive whether or not nuclear fission technologies offer a sustainable solution to global energy problems. The impressive expansion of nuclear reactors in the 1960s and 1970 slowed down after the meltdown in Harrisburg and the nuclear explosion in Chernobyl. Since the end of the 1980s installed nuclear capacity has stagnated, and in Europe declined. However, a nuclear revival or renaissance has been predicted for 30 years. This article reviews global scenarios and national nuclear programmes and analyses problems in the nuclear industry. Special attention is given to nuclear power and global warming and the nexus between nuclear power and nuclear proliferation.

Highlights

► The status of nuclear programmes in the world is examined. ► Nuclear power has taken a nose-dive in Western industrialised countries. ► The nuclear renaissance has been announced since 1981 but never materialised. ► Share of nuclear power is 15.7% of global electricity but only 2.3% of global FEC. ► Nuclear energy is no sustainable solution and cannot avoid global warming.

Introduction

In view of the looming climate crisis and dwindling fossil fuels—peak oil just to mention one—nuclear energy has been proposed in the past decade as a CO₂-free, safe and secure, cheap solution to global energy problems. US President Barack Obama stated in February 2010: “Nuclear energy remains our largest source of fuel that produces no carbon emissions. To meet our growing energy needs and prevent the worst consequences of climate change, we'll need to increase our supply of nuclear power. It's that simple.” (CNN, 2010 February 17, 2010).

The article will question this ‘simple’ strategy: Can nuclear energy really contribute a sustainable solution for global energy supply and offer a technology to mitigate global warming for the next generation? Another aspect is the cost of nuclear power. While the supposedly low costs of atomic energy were extolled in the early phase of civil use of nuclear power—‘too cheap to meter’ was the jingle—the claim has in the meantime been modified to ‘at least cheaper than the alternatives.’

The article reviews the rise and stagnation of nuclear power over time and reassesses the purported global nuclear renaissance.

Section snippets

Any revival of nuclear power since 1981?

Has the global renaissance of nuclear energy ever really materialised in the first place? The purported renaissance of nuclear energy has a long history. On 9 October 1981 the New York Times featured an article entitled: “President offers plans for revival of nuclear power.” The US government under President Ronald Reagan, it stated, had taken concrete steps to revive commercial nuclear power. Since then the renaissance of nuclear energy has been heralded in the media at regular intervals. In

Status of nuclear energy programmes in the world

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) counted 435 nuclear power plants with a total rating of 368,304 MW and an average of 26 years as ‘operational’—which means they are connected to the electricity grid—in February 2012 (see Table 1).

Is the entire world really building nuclear power plants? By no means. According to the IAEA, 63 blocks with a rating of 61,032 MW are currently under construction (see Table 1). The building projects are spread out among fourteen countries: China (26),

Age of and electrical power produced by nuclear power plants

At present nuclear power plants have a total rating of approximately 368,000 MW and an average operating lifetime of 26 years. The fact that installed power plant capacity has risen slightly on the whole in the last few years is not due to additional plants being constructed, but rather existing plants' ratings being increased through technical measures such as the replacement of steam generators.

The closure of 138 reactors in the world to date following an average operating lifetime of 22

Plans and forecasts

When US President Eisenhower proclaimed a program for peaceful use of nuclear energy in 1953, the doomsday images created by the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki “were papered over with prophecies of the virtually infinite blessings of peaceful use” (Traube 2004). When construction of several large nuclear power plants commenced in the middle of the 1960s and commercial use of nuclear energy got under way, the euphoria had already begun to subside. Nevertheless, especially in the

Costs and financing

In contrast to other energy technologies, there are no positive economies of scale in the construction of nuclear power plants. On the contrary, specific investment costs have become ever more expensive. Moreover, plants have had considerable cost overruns—and not only in the USA. In the early phase from 1966 to 1967, estimated overnight costs were $ 560/kW, but actual overnight costs turned out to be $ 1,170/kilowatt, i.e. 209 percent more. In the years from 1974 to 1975, estimated overnight

Problems faced by the nuclear industry

The nuclear industry has been battling a host of problems for three decades. A global construction boom can be ruled out at present if only due to the lack of production capacities and shortages of technicians; nor will this situation change much over the short and medium term. Only one single company in the world, Japan Steel Works Ltd., is able to forge the large pressure vessels in reactors the size of EPR. Not only the pressure vessel, but also the steam generators in the new Finnish plant

Climate protection through nuclear power plants?

The sector of electrical power production accounts for about 27 percent of global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and constitutes by far the biggest and fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions. That is why supposedly CO₂-free nuclear power plants have frequently been praised as a panacea against climate change. As an argument in favor of civil use of nuclear energy, advocates such as RWE manager Fritz Vahrenholt are fond of pointing out that the operation of nuclear power plant does not

Civil and military use of nuclear power–proliferation

Viewed in historical terms, military use of nuclear energy has gone hand in hand with the development of civil nuclear technology, because most countries attached first priority to the development of nuclear weapons and other military uses, with production of energy in nuclear power plants at first only being a waste product. This by-product developed its own momentum, however: nuclear power became an icon for clean, highly modern technology and technological progress. Moreover, it was a

Conclusion

The total meltdown in March 2011 of three units of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station placed international energy policy at a crossroads and will have a paradigm-shifting impact on the future of nuclear energy.

We have seen that planned global expansion of nuclear energy remains considerably slower than its own targets and expectations. The reasons why a renaissance of nuclear power has not materialized include not only lack of industrial and production capacities and shortages of

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^☆: Updated and revised version of Lutz Mez: The future of nuclear energy in the wake of Fukushima in: Nina Netzer & Jochen Steinhilber (Eds.) The end of nuclear energy? International perspectives after Fukushima, Berlin: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung 2011, pp 13–22.

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Nuclear energy–Any solution for sustainability and climate protection?☆