Modeling changes in land use patterns and ecosystem services to explore a potential solution for meeting the management needs of a heritage site at the landscape level
Introduction
Reconciling conflicts between ecological conservation priorities and changing land use demands in world heritage sites experiencing the impacts of rapid urbanization processes remains a global challenge (Wondie et al., 2011). As of 2015, China ranked second in terms of the number of world heritage sites. Over the last decade or so, the development boom in China’s tourism industry and the expanded use of land for tourism and construction has led to an accelerating changes in landscape structures and ecosystem functions at these valuable heritage sites. Simultaneously, the ecosystems in these sites become gradually degraded or sensitive to human activities and/or natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Many original research studies have demonstrated that ecological, socio-cultural, and economic factors relating to a landscape must be considered in planning and decision-making processes to address conflicts that arise between the needs of local communities and conservation of natural resources (Xiang, 2013).
Landscape modeling is an important approach for developing an understanding of macro-scale changes and dynamics and supporting a process of policy design based on identified needs. Currently, models of land use changes are emerging as the primary tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use changes on ecosystems, and supporting land use planning and policy (Wolff et al., 2015, Verburg et al., 2002, Feagin et al., 2010, Stürck et al., 2015). Integrating existing models of land use change could thus be a feasible approach for facilitating decision-making (Zhang et al., 2013).
The Wuyishan Scenery District (WSD), a world natural and cultural heritage site located in southeastern China, is an area facing the abovementioned conflict between conservation and development priorities. Over the last 30 years, landscape patterns have changed significantly as a result of natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The most significant land use changes have been evident in natural forests and cultivated lands that are gradually being replaced by other types of land use, especially tea plantations and developed sites (You et al., 2011). Therefore, coordinating and managing land use to tackle practical issues relating to the conservation of heritage sites was identified by all of WSD’s stakeholders as an urgent task, endorsed in the master plan (discussion draft) developed for this site for future. WSD’s master plan proposes an overall land management approach that includes the following activities: 1) protecting cultivated lands, or prioritizing agricultural land for food production to maintain food supplies; 2) protecting forest resources and strengthening afforestation efforts; 3) administering strict control over land use (excluding already planned land use) by local residents; and 4) implementing control measures focusing on “retreat-control-change” processes to restore original ecosystems and mitigate the expansion of tea plantations.
Despite the assumed general concepts in the master plan and the approaches being implemented in relation to the planning and management of sensitive types of land use in WSD, little is known about the mechanisms for changing land use patterns and ecosystem services. Moreover, priority setting regarding conservation is critical for allocating the limited financial resources available for conservation and efficient management (Zhang et al., 2015). However, determining spatially optimal ways to alter or regulate land use in relation to various existing types of land remains a challenge. Therefore, we attempted to address this knowledge gap by applying the CLUE-S model that has been widely used internationally. The specific objectives of this study were to: 1) quantify correlations between the distribution of different types of land use and the driving factors; 2) model changes in landscape patterns and ecosystem services value (ESV) in the near future; and 3) explore a spatially explicit solution to address urgent management requirements at the macro scale by comparing three projected management scenarios. The findings of this study could lead to a better understanding of the possible impacts of land use changes on ecosystem functions in heterogeneous spaces and provide strong support for actual land use planning and management within a world heritage site.
Section snippets
Study area
Mount Wuyi, which is a world cultural and natural heritage site, is located in the northern part of Fujian Province in China, covering an area of about 70 km2. The site’s geographical coordinates are: 117°35′–118°01′ longitude and 27°35′–27°43′ N latitude (Fig. 1a). The area is an important tourist site because of its unique natural landscape and its rich cultural heritage. The different types of landscapes present in WSD include: bare land, Cunninghamia lanceolata forests, Pinus massoniana
Sources of data
The land use classification map of WSD for the period from 1997 to 2009 used for this study was developed during a previous study (You et al., 2011). To improve the accuracy of simulation and reduce possible interference resulting from small areas under different types of land use, we merged the 11 types of land use in this area to create seven types for our preliminary study. Thus, a non-matrix forest landscape, comprising Cunninghamia lanceolata forests, broadleaf forests, bamboo forests,
Impact of driving factors on land distribution
With the exception of tea plantations (ROC = 0.638) and non-matrix forests (ROC = 0.735), the prediction accuracy for the various type of land use was found to be high (ROC ≥ 0.857) (see Table 3). In particular, rivers and built-up land evidenced high ROC values (0.984 and 0.948, respectively). Table 3 shows that the occurrence of tea plantations was associated with elevation, aspect, slope, distance to the nearest river, and distance to the nearest settlement. An increase of 1 m in elevation, or a
Impact of driving factors
Our findings revealed that favorable environment for tea growing occurred primarily in areas at a relatively low elevation, with gentle slopes and a humid microclimate surroundings. Tea plantations situated closer to rivers and settlements can be more conveniently cultivated or managed by farmers. Areas of built-up land are generally located along rivers and tend to expand outward away from river banks. Cultivated fields are mostly distributed in the surroundings of nearby settlements and a
Conclusions
The application of the CLUE-S model enabled us to conduct an analysis of WSD, a world cultural and natural heritage site to better understand its landscape changes, land use patterns, and their interactions with driving factors. We successfully quantified the impact of driving factors on the distribution of land uses in WSD and verified a potential solution for mitigating tea plantation expansion. The defined driving factors were associated with a relatively high degree of predictive accuracy
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41301203) and the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (No. 20133515120007), to which we are very grateful. We are also very grateful for the support provided by Forestry College Youth Foundation of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University (No. 6112C035F), and Research Start-up Funds for Class A talents of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University (No. 132130012).
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