A simple method for representing some univariate frequency distributions, with particular application in Monte Carlo-based simulation☆
Introduction
The Monte Carlo method, described initially by Metropolis and Ulam (1949), has long played an important role in geoscientific modelling. For this there is an excellent reason, viz. that Monte Carlo-based simulation is an extraordinarily powerful tool for studying the behaviour of the types of systems with which geoscientists commonly work. These systems typically are highly complex ones, with parameters that cannot be specified exactly and for which the effects of parameter variation cannot be determined analytically. The use of Monte Carlo-based simulation allows models of these systems to be built and analysed in a straightforward and effective way.
There are two preconditions for the use of Monte Carlo-based simulation. The first—this is the general precondition for all successful scientific modeling—is that the model being used is behaviourally equivalent to the system being studied. The second—a contrastingly specific precondition—is that the distributions of the variables used in the model are capable of being represented in a computationally efficient way. This second precondition ensures that appropriately distributed random deviates can be generated quickly whenever they are needed, as the Monte Carlo method demands.
The purpose of this present paper is to propose a simple yet effective method for representing some of the types of univariate frequency distribution that are commonly required in Monte Carlo-based work. These types of distribution share the following characteristics: (1) they are continuous, with unimodal density functions; (2) the variables concerned have ranges that are bounded in at least one of the two directions; (3) the density functions are non-zero in value at the bounds. The first part of the paper introduces the proposed representation method; then the matter of parameter estimation is considered; finally an example is given of how the method was used in a recent stratigraphic modelling exercise. A program is provided that allows experimentation using different sets of parameter values; this program can be downloaded from the journal website.
Section snippets
The representation problem
Distributions of the types being considered here are met with in many applications, both in the geosciences and elsewhere, commonly in situations in which there is little or no theory to point to their ideal mathematical form. The problem is then always to decide on how they will best be represented. This problem is a very application-specific one, for the choice of representation will always be influenced by the purposes for which the distribution in question is to be used. However, usually it
Representing distributions bounded in one direction
The mechanics of the proposed method are readily appreciated by looking first at how it is used to represent a unimodal distribution bounded in one direction only (Fig. 1A). The following notation is used: the variable concerned is x, 0⩽x⩽∞; the required density and distribution functions are f(x) and F(x), respectively; the mode is located at x=m.
First, the parent distribution is chosen. This must have three properties: (1) its range must be identical to the required range of x, (2) the values
Distributions bounded in both directions
Next consider how the method is used to represent a unimodal distribution bounded in both directions (Fig. 1B); in this case the variable x is taken to lie in the range 0⩽x⩽a. The density function f(x) is again constructed in two sections, but both of these are now rescaled linear blends of g(x) and g(m). Thuswhere wl and wu are the blending coefficients for the lower and upper sections,
Parameter estimation
Distributions used in simulation work commonly have to represent sets of data. The values of the distribution parameters then have to be chosen to give the best fit to those data. For ungrouped data, the parameter estimation can be carried out by maximising the appropriate log likelihood function. This isfor the one-bound case, andfor the two-bound case. θ denotes the set of parameters belonging
Two applications of the proposed method in Monte Carlo-based simulation
The value of the proposed method in Monte Carlo-based simulation is demonstrated in a recent exercise in sedimentation modelling (Tipper, 2007). The aim there was to look at how sediment accumulation models could be used to predict the thickness–time relationships to be expected over the long term in one-dimensional stratigraphic successions; by ‘long term’ is meant intervals of 104–105 years duration. The exercise—an avowedly exploratory one—had three parts: (1) a model was selected and its
A brief discussion
This paper has had a deliberately limited purpose—to describe the proposed new method for representing univariate distributions and to illustrate its application in Monte Carlo-based simulation. The results of the particular simulation exercise used in the illustration are therefore hardly appropriate here. All that is relevant is perhaps to remark that the simulation approach used there provides for the first time a way of predicting the nature of the thickness–time relationships to be
Acknowledgements
I thank Martin Stynes and Robert Boik for responding so magnificently to my cry for help.
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