An operational model for forecasting ragweed pollen release and dispersion in Europe

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.08.003Get rights and content
Under a Creative Commons license
open access

Highlights

  • A model was developed for forecasting ragweed pollen emission and transport in air.

  • The model reproduces the main features of ragweed pollen season in Europe.

  • Long-range transport can bring allergy-relevant pollen amounts anywhere in Europe.

Abstract

The paper considers the possibilities of modelling the release and dispersion of the pollen of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a highly allergenic invasive weed, which is spreading through southern and central Europe. In order to provide timely warnings for the allergy sufferers, a model was developed for forecasting ragweed pollen concentrations in the air. The development was based on the system for integrated modelling of atmospheric composition (SILAM) and concentrated on spatio-temporal modelling of ragweed flowering season and pollen release, which constitutes the emission term.

Evaluation of the new model against multi-annual ragweed pollen observations demonstrated that the model reproduces well the main ragweed pollen season in the areas with major plant presence, such as the Pannonian Plain, the Lyon area in France, the Milan region in Italy, Ukraine and southern Russia. The predicted start of the season is mostly within 3 days of the observed for the majority of stations in these areas. The temporal correlation between modelled and observed concentrations exceeds 0.6 for the bulk of the stations.

Model application to the seasons of 2005–2011 indicated the regions with high ragweed pollen concentrations, in particular the areas where allergenic thresholds are exceeded. It is demonstrated that, due to long-range transport of pollen, high-concentration areas are substantially more extensive than the heavily infested territories.

Keywords

Pollen dispersion modelling
Allergenic pollen forecasting
Ambrosia artemisiifolia L

Cited by (0)

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works License, which permits non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.