Effects of climate change on cultivation patterns of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China

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Highlights

  • We examine changes in the cultivation pattern of different maturity spring maize.

  • We use climatic suitability theory and fuzzy mathematics to establish functions.

  • Growth periods that are most sensitive to environmental limitations are divided.

  • Climate change affects the distributions of climatic suitability of spring maize.

  • Promoting medium-late cultivar can reduce unfavorable effect of climate change.

Abstract

To learn the effects of climate change on cultivation patterns of spring maize and its suitability will benefit the strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation. In this paper, based on the daily data from 68 meteorological stations and 82 agro-meteorological observation stations in Northeast China between 1961 and 2010, the cultivation pattern of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China were investigated. The agricultural climatic suitability theory was applied. The specific growth phases of spring maize that were most sensitive to environmental limitations were further divided into four stages: from germination to emergence, from emergence to jointing, from jointing to tasseling, and from tasseling to maturity. The average resource suitability index (Isr) was established to evaluate the effects. Higher values of Isr indicate a higher degree of climatic resource suitability. Over the past five decades, the northern planting boundaries of different maturities (late, medium-late, medium, medium-early and early) of spring maize varieties in Northeast China all markedly extended northward and eastward. Of all the varieties, the medium-late maturity variety had the most expanded planting area. This further illustrated the importance of promoting medium-late range heat-tolerant cultivars of spring maize in reducing the unfavorable effect of climate change in the near future in Northeast China. In addition, the most significant extension was found in the early 21st century. Moreover, the southern planting boundaries of unsuitable planting spring maize areas continually compressed northward from the Tonghe County of Heilongjiang Province (128°49′, 46°21′) to the Huma County of Heilongjiang Province (124°11′, 51°26′). Climate change affected not only the planting patterns of spring maize, but also the climatic suitability of spring maize. Significant temporal and spatial changes of Isr from 1961 to 2010 were found. The Isr showed increasing trends, which increased by 0.19 in Heilongjiang Province, 0.16 in Jilin Province and 0.12 in Liaoning Province. Spatial differences of Isr were obvious, with high values shifting northeastward over the past 50 years, indicating more efficient suitability of agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China.

Introduction

Climate change will exacerbate the challenges in many dimensions. Agriculture is arguably the sector most affected by climate change (IPCC, 2007, Moeletsi et al., 2013). Meeting the world’s growing demand for food in coming decades is likely to become more difficult as already stressed agricultural systems will be challenged by population growth and rising income in some of the world’s poorest regions. In China, grain production must increase by at least 35% during the next 20 years in order to meet the needs of the Chinese population, expected to peak at 1.5 billion in 2033 (Meng et al., 2013). Understanding how climate change has been affecting agriculture production is a prerequisite to ensure global food security and to inform adaptation decisions (IPCC, 2007, Wang et al., 2014).

Northeast China, which is vulnerable to climate change, is an important region for spring maize production, accounting for over 30% of China’s total maize production and 27% of its maize growing area (National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC), 2011, Guo et al., 2013). Part of this region is also the most productive maize growing area in China, known as the golden maize belt. Over the past decades, the high climatic variability at different time and space scales has affected the long-term food security and economic development of the region. Air temperatures in this region are estimated to have increased over the past 50 years, with a rate of 0.38 °C per decade. These large increases in temperature are thought to have considerable impacts on the agricultural climatic resources (Walker and Schulze, 2008, Zhao et al., 2010, Chen et al., 2011, Yuan et al., 2012, Guo et al., 2013), maize growth and harvest (Tao et al., 2008, Chen et al., 2011), crop yield (Wolf and Van Diepen, 1995, Jones and Thornton, 2003, Tao and Zhang, 2010, Zhao et al., 2011), and northern planting limits (Liu et al., 2013, Zhao and Guo, 2013). For example, Guo et al. (2013) predicted the effects of climate change on the agricultural climatic resource utilization from 1951 to 2100, using the high-resolution RegCM3 (0.25° × 0.25°) daily data. They found that future climate warming in Northeast China would be expected to negatively impact spring maize production, especially in Liaoning Province. Spring maize cultivation would likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources. These studies represent an important contribution toward understanding the effects of climate change on agricultural production. However, few studies have so far been conducted to quantitatively assess the impact of past climate change on the cultivation patterns of spring maize and its climatic suitability at regional scales in Northeast China. Effective agricultural adaptation to changing climate conditions requires a good understanding of how climate change may affect cultivation patterns and suitability of crops.

The objectives of the present study are to: (1) quantitatively evaluate the temporal and spatial changes of cultivation patterns of different maturities (late, medium-late, medium, medium-early and early) of spring maize varieties over the past five decades in Northeast China; (2) investigate the climatic suitability of spring maize in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010, based on the specific growth phases that are most sensitive to environmental limitations; and (3) provide a scientific basis for planning the efficient use of agricultural climatic resources for sustainable maize production in Northeast China to adapt to future climate change.

Section snippets

Study area

Northeast China, including the entire Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning Provinces, is one of the most important grain producing areas of China (Fig. 1). The main crops include rice, maize and soybeans, which are sown in early May and harvested by the end of September under normal climate conditions. The climate in this area of study is characterized by warm summers, cold winters, abundant precipitation, and short growing seasons. Growing seasons are largely controlled by the East Asian monsoon,

Temporal and spatial changes in cultivation patterns of spring maize in Northeast China

There were significant changes found in the cultivation pattern of different maturities (late, medium-late, medium, medium-early and early) of spring maize varieties from 1961 to 2010 in Northeast China (Fig. 3). At a regional scale, the northern planting boundaries of different maturities in spring maize varieties markedly extended northward and eastward over the past 50 years. Of all the varieties, the medium-late maturity variety had the most expanded planting area. Moreover, the acreage

The influence of climate change on spring maize cultivation in Northeast China

Climate warming will increase temperature and extend the length of the favorable maize-growing season if other resources are not limited (Liu et al., 2013), which, together with higher summer temperatures, has significantly improved maize growing conditions in northern countries (Olesen et al., 2007, Odgaard et al., 2011). Previous modeling studies have evaluated planting patterns and suitability distributions of maize at higher latitudes (Davis et al., 1996, Liu et al., 2013), in the

Conclusions

The paper investigated the effects of climate change on the cultivation pattern of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010. The findings demonstrated that the northern planting boundaries of different maturity (late, medium-late, medium, medium-early and early) spring maize varieties in Northeast China markedly extended northward and eastward over the past 50 years. However, the southern planting boundaries of unsuitable areas continually compressed

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Climate Change Research Fund (CCSF201346), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31371530), and the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201106020).

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