Effects of climate change on cultivation patterns of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China
Introduction
Climate change will exacerbate the challenges in many dimensions. Agriculture is arguably the sector most affected by climate change (IPCC, 2007, Moeletsi et al., 2013). Meeting the world’s growing demand for food in coming decades is likely to become more difficult as already stressed agricultural systems will be challenged by population growth and rising income in some of the world’s poorest regions. In China, grain production must increase by at least 35% during the next 20 years in order to meet the needs of the Chinese population, expected to peak at 1.5 billion in 2033 (Meng et al., 2013). Understanding how climate change has been affecting agriculture production is a prerequisite to ensure global food security and to inform adaptation decisions (IPCC, 2007, Wang et al., 2014).
Northeast China, which is vulnerable to climate change, is an important region for spring maize production, accounting for over 30% of China’s total maize production and 27% of its maize growing area (National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC), 2011, Guo et al., 2013). Part of this region is also the most productive maize growing area in China, known as the golden maize belt. Over the past decades, the high climatic variability at different time and space scales has affected the long-term food security and economic development of the region. Air temperatures in this region are estimated to have increased over the past 50 years, with a rate of 0.38 °C per decade. These large increases in temperature are thought to have considerable impacts on the agricultural climatic resources (Walker and Schulze, 2008, Zhao et al., 2010, Chen et al., 2011, Yuan et al., 2012, Guo et al., 2013), maize growth and harvest (Tao et al., 2008, Chen et al., 2011), crop yield (Wolf and Van Diepen, 1995, Jones and Thornton, 2003, Tao and Zhang, 2010, Zhao et al., 2011), and northern planting limits (Liu et al., 2013, Zhao and Guo, 2013). For example, Guo et al. (2013) predicted the effects of climate change on the agricultural climatic resource utilization from 1951 to 2100, using the high-resolution RegCM3 (0.25° × 0.25°) daily data. They found that future climate warming in Northeast China would be expected to negatively impact spring maize production, especially in Liaoning Province. Spring maize cultivation would likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources. These studies represent an important contribution toward understanding the effects of climate change on agricultural production. However, few studies have so far been conducted to quantitatively assess the impact of past climate change on the cultivation patterns of spring maize and its climatic suitability at regional scales in Northeast China. Effective agricultural adaptation to changing climate conditions requires a good understanding of how climate change may affect cultivation patterns and suitability of crops.
The objectives of the present study are to: (1) quantitatively evaluate the temporal and spatial changes of cultivation patterns of different maturities (late, medium-late, medium, medium-early and early) of spring maize varieties over the past five decades in Northeast China; (2) investigate the climatic suitability of spring maize in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010, based on the specific growth phases that are most sensitive to environmental limitations; and (3) provide a scientific basis for planning the efficient use of agricultural climatic resources for sustainable maize production in Northeast China to adapt to future climate change.
Section snippets
Study area
Northeast China, including the entire Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning Provinces, is one of the most important grain producing areas of China (Fig. 1). The main crops include rice, maize and soybeans, which are sown in early May and harvested by the end of September under normal climate conditions. The climate in this area of study is characterized by warm summers, cold winters, abundant precipitation, and short growing seasons. Growing seasons are largely controlled by the East Asian monsoon,
Temporal and spatial changes in cultivation patterns of spring maize in Northeast China
There were significant changes found in the cultivation pattern of different maturities (late, medium-late, medium, medium-early and early) of spring maize varieties from 1961 to 2010 in Northeast China (Fig. 3). At a regional scale, the northern planting boundaries of different maturities in spring maize varieties markedly extended northward and eastward over the past 50 years. Of all the varieties, the medium-late maturity variety had the most expanded planting area. Moreover, the acreage
The influence of climate change on spring maize cultivation in Northeast China
Climate warming will increase temperature and extend the length of the favorable maize-growing season if other resources are not limited (Liu et al., 2013), which, together with higher summer temperatures, has significantly improved maize growing conditions in northern countries (Olesen et al., 2007, Odgaard et al., 2011). Previous modeling studies have evaluated planting patterns and suitability distributions of maize at higher latitudes (Davis et al., 1996, Liu et al., 2013), in the
Conclusions
The paper investigated the effects of climate change on the cultivation pattern of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010. The findings demonstrated that the northern planting boundaries of different maturity (late, medium-late, medium, medium-early and early) spring maize varieties in Northeast China markedly extended northward and eastward over the past 50 years. However, the southern planting boundaries of unsuitable areas continually compressed
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Climate Change Research Fund (CCSF201346), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31371530), and the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201106020).
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