Analysis of multiple drivers of air pollution emissions in China via interregional trade

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Abstract

Severe haze problems in China have attracted substantial attention. End-of-pipe measures have been implemented to mitigate air pollutant emissions in different industrial sectors. However, interregional trade can lead to geological separation of the stages of supply chains (i.e., primary input, production, final sale and consumption), and thus, emissions can be driven by cross-regional drivers (i.e., primary inputs, final sales and consumption), and pollutants can transfer among regions via supply chains. Inequity exists in production-side measures of emission reductions, which do not account for the effects of cross-regional drivers. In this study, we use a multiregional input-output model in the year 2012 to calculate the emissions driven by cross-regional drivers and to trace emission flows along supply chains in China, aiming to inform policymaking on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) mitigation and to provide additional information about shared responsibilities among provinces. We find that the Central (including Anhui and Henan) is the largest emitter outside the Central Coast in order to meet the demand for sales within the Central Coast. Specifically, the cross-provincial sale of products from the construction sector drives massive emissions, especially in Jiangsu province (located in the Central Coast). Therefore, the Central Coast should bear some responsibility to help provinces located in the Central reduce emissions. About half of emissions driven by primary inputs in Beijing-Tianjin are emitted in other regions. However, in general, emissions (except for ammonia) are more likely to be driven by final sales of other provinces than by primary inputs. The supply chain perspective can help gain a better understanding of the impacts of trade-related drivers on emission patterns and advocate just and effective policies considering cleaner production and shared responsibilities.

Introduction

Haze, a crucially acute problem in China, has received substantial attention from the public and the Chinese government (CSC, 2018a; Huang, 2014; Zhuang et al., 2014; Gao et al., 2017). Haze is characterized by high concentrations of both primary and secondary fine particulate matter (PM2.5). It is reported that primary PM2.5 as well as precursor gases (including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) (Megaritis et al., 2013)) have adverse effects on human health (Delfino et al., 2005; Timonen et al., 2006). Moreover, air pollution can be outsourced to less developed regions through interregional trade, which exacerbates the health burden of air pollution (Wang et al., 2017). Therefore, it is critical to control both primary PM2.5 and its precursors’ emissions to mitigate the haze problem. However, the current ways to control haze problems overlook the pollution embodied in traded goods and the disparities that might follow among regions in terms of air pollution exposure.

Due to interregional trade, products produced in one place are not ultimately consumed in the same place. The geographical separation of production and consumption complicates the problems that who should take the responsibility to improve air quality and how the cost of pollution mitigation ought to be shared (Caney, 2009). In addition to consumption, direct emissions, through a supply chain perspective, can also be enabled by primary inputs (corresponding to income-based accounting) (Marques et al., 2013) and final sales (corresponding to final sales-based accounting) (Kanemoto et al., 2012) in different locations. The supply of primary inputs (including the provision of labor or any other primary factors) to production process enable emissions to occur (Marques et al., 2012). Final sellers process raw materials and semi-products into finished goods to sell. In other words, production processes are closely associated with both primary inputs, final sales and consumption. But for any agent's (primary suppliers, producers, sellers or consumers) actions there may have been no emissions (Steininger et al., 2016).

Many studies have considered consumers’ environmental duty and have analyzed consumption-based emissions (corresponding to consumption-based accounting) at global (Davis and Caldeira, 2010; Boitier, 2012; Meng et al., 2016, 2018a) and national (Huo et al., 2014; Li et al., 2016; Shao et al., 2018; Zhao et al., 2015) levels. A typical finding of these studies is that the consumption-based accounting method reveals new emission profiles for regions. In general, less developed regions exhibit high levels of emissions during the manufacturing of goods for consumption in more developed regions (Feng et al., 2013; Lindner et al., 2013). These studies also have juxtaposed production-based (territorial) emissions and consumption-based emissions and stressed the importance of the consumer responsibility because consumers benefit from the enjoyment or use of products and service. However, less studies have considered the importance of income-based (Liang et al., 2017a, 2016; Zhang et al., 2018) and final sales-based emissions (Kanemoto et al., 2012; Liang et al., 2017b). In fact, both primary suppliers and final producers also benefit from production activities. Primary suppliers receive a payment from the inputs that they supply. Final producers (sellers) profit from the sales of final products. All the agents benefit from the production during which air pollutants are discharged although they do not actually engage in harmful activities. Therefore, we cannot only consider the producer and consumer shared responsibility (Gallego and Lenzen, 2005; Lenzen et al., 2007). It is reasonable to take into account of all the agents benefiting from interregional trade.

Using income-, final sales- and consumption-based accounting approaches, the emissions directly emitted by producers can be allocated to primary suppliers, final producers (sellers) and final consumers, respectively. Some studies find disparities among patterns of direct emissions, consumption-based emissions, income-based emissions and final sales-based emissions (Marques et al., 2013; Liang et al., 2016; Liang et al., 2017a; Liang et al., 2017b). Critical agents are identified through different accounting methods to provide policy makers with a more complete picture of the effects of all agents’ actions. However, none of the accounting systems prove “best” in meeting the emission targets (Steininger et al., 2016). These four methods only place full responsibility on the corresponding agents and carry no implication about the portions of responsibility to be shared. Although existing studies have analyzed the shared burden of mitigation based on different principles (Cadarso et al., 2012; Chang, 2013; Zhang, 2015), it is difficult to exactly determine who is causally responsible for harmful emissions. Moreover, accounting for both downstream emissions (income-based emissions) and upstream emissions (final sales- and consumption-based emissions) can be useful for emission mitigation because it is cost-effective to reduce those indirect emissions by choosing trade partners (Marques et al., 2013).

Many studies have analyzed air pollution emissions caused by trade-related drivers, especially the consumption driver (Zhang, 2015; Lindner et al., 2013; Liang et al., 2015; Mi et al., 2017). Meng et al. (2018b) compared CO2 emissions embodied in South-South trade between 2004 and 2011. Wang et al. (2017) evaluated the effects of international and interprovincial trade on PM2.5 pollution and public health across China. Zhang et al. (2019) analyzed SO2 transfers through Chinese supply chains considering consumption-based emissions and physical transport. However, none have compared income-, production-, final sales- and consumption-based accounting methods together from the supply chain perspective at a national level. In this paper, we estimate primary PM2.5, SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 emissions from 30 provinces in China during 2012. We also use Sankey diagrams to trace the emission flows among regions to gain a comprehensive picture of the influence of interregional trade. Our findings show that in general, emissions (except for NH3) are more likely to be driven by final sales of other provinces than by primary inputs. The Central (including Anhui and Henan provinces) is the largest emitter outside the Central Coast in order to meet the demand for sales within the Central Coast. About half of emissions driven by primary inputs in Beijing-Tianjin are emitted in other regions. Combining four accounting frameworks can help gain a better understanding of the impacts of trade-related drivers on emission patterns and advocate just and effective policies considering shared responsibilities. It will also provide valuable insights into how other economies may be aiming to make relatively fair emission control policies.

Section snippets

Production-based accounting method

Production-based emissions refer to direct emissions for each sector. The detailed sector classification applied in this study are listed in the Supporting Information (SI) Table S1. We obtained the results on the basis of calculation and available emission inventories. For the agriculture, the electricity and hot water production and supply and the transport and storage sectors, the emission data were obtained from the Multiresolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC, available at //www.meicmodel.org

Results

In this section, we first provide an overview of provincial emissions caused by different trade-related drivers, following which we compare the different impacts of these drivers outside producing provinces. Then we present the embodied emission flows among regions through supply chains using Sankey diagrams. Finally, we further identify the key sectors that caused large amounts of emissions to complement the results of emission flows.

Discussion

Income-based, production-based, final-sales-based and consumption-based accounting methods place full responsibility on primary suppliers, producers, sellers and consumers, respectively. However, through any approach, it is not likely to be perceived as fair in terms of mitigation policies because all the actors are related to air pollutant emissions in different stages of the supply chains. Therefore, emission control policies must be considered from different perspectives.

Conclusion

Income-based, final sales-based and consumption-based accounting methods can trace emission transfers and provide policy makers with deeper insights into interprovincial and shared responsibilities on emission reduction.

The Central (including Anhui and Henan) is the largest emitter outside the Central Coast in order to meet the demand for sales within the Central Coast. Specifically, the cross-provincial sale of products from the construction sector drives massive emissions, especially in

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China under award nos. 41571130010, 41671491, 41821005, and 41390240; National Key Research and Development Program of China 2016YFC0206202; and the 111 Project (B14001).

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    Y. Wang and H. Yang contributed equally to this paper.

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