Quantifying Improvements in Earthquake-Rupture Forecasts through Testable Models

doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-394848-9.00015-8

Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Disasters

Hazards and Disasters Series

2014, Pages 405-429

https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-394848-9.00015-8 Get rights and content

Abstract

The philosophy of Karl Popper suggests that scientific hypotheses should be evaluated in experiments and the results should be used to improve the underlying models. With these improved models, new hypotheses should be formulated and, again, put under test in experiments. Because earthquake-rupture forecast models are societally relevant products of seismological research and they influence public policy making, rigorous testing and evaluation of these models are a must. Recently, interest has been reinvigorated in developing tests for earthquake forecast models in the seismological community with the application of many forecast experiments and long-term testing underway. In this chapter, we describe some philosophies behind testing, the types of earthquake forecasts that are currently in development or under testing, and introduce test metrics and procedures. The difficulties of forecast and experiment development are laid out. In particular, we highlight the importance of testing centers for unbiased and fully prospective experiments, that is, testing earthquake forecasts against future observations. We show how the seismological community is embracing this philosophy and how it is applied to earthquake-rupture models and also to other aspects of seismic hazard assessment.

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Citation Excerpt :
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Chapter 15 - Quantifying Improvements in Earthquake-Rupture Forecasts through Testable Models

Abstract