Modelling diversity, change and uncertainty in peasant agriculture in northern Malawi

Abstract

This paper describes the application of a semi-sequential programming model of farming systems in an area in northern Malawi. The model predicts that different types of farm will respond differently to similar changes in prices and to similar stochastic events during a season. These predictions are tested against observed variation in cropping patterns between different farm types, using cluster analysis of farm survey data over a 4-year period. The study's findings emphasize the need for the development of appropriate techniques for the study of diversity, change and uncertainty in peasant agriculture.