Elsevier

Ecological Modelling

Volume 64, Issue 1, 15 October 1992, Pages 47-64
Ecological Modelling

Modelling coastal marsh stability in response to sea level rise: a case study in coastal Louisiana, USA

https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(92)90049-KGet rights and content

Abstract

In some regions coastal marsh stability is threatened by high rates of sea level rise. The deltaic plain of the Mississippi River is a natural laboratory for the study of marsh stability under conditions of rising sea level because it has been experiencing high rates of local submergence which cause relatively high rates of apparent sea level rise. We constructed a dynamic simulation model to study the relationship of accretion to three components of relative sea level rise: compaction, eustatic rise and submergence. The model is then used to project marsh stability under various future scenarios of sea level rise as well as enhancement of sediment supplies and marsh accretion. The model was calibrated to a 14C-dated sediment deposit which provides a long-term record of sediment accretion. Results indicate that an equilibrium between relative sea level and accretion rates can be attained, but that in this region of coastal Louisiana only the most optimistic assumptions yield coastal marshes that are stable in the long term.

References (35)

  • Chmura, G.L. and Kosters, E.C., in press. Storm deposition and 137Cs accumulation in fine-grained marsh sediments of...
  • C.J. Cleveland et al.

    The impact of artificial canals on land loss in the Barataria Basin, Louisiana

  • W.H. Conner et al.

    Floristics of Barataria Basin wetlands, Louisiana

    Castanea

    (1986)
  • W.H. Conner et al.

    Description of the basin

  • N.J. Craig et al.

    Land loss in coastal Louisiana

    Environ. Manage.

    (1979)
  • D.E. Frazier

    Recent deltaic deposits of the Mississippi River: thier development and chronology

    Trans. Gulf Coast Assoc. Geol. Soc.

    (1967)
  • R.W. Frey et al.

    Coastal salt marshes

  • Cited by (34)

    • Reprint of Modelling wetland surface elevation dynamics and its application to forecasting the effects of sea-level rise on estuarine wetlands

      2013, Ecological Modelling
      Citation Excerpt :

      The developed landscape model projected no net loss in wetland extent under moderate rates of sea-level rise (3.65 mm y−1) by 2050, thereby highlighting the capacity of natural ecosystems to self-regulate to perturbations. These findings are consistent with studies that have established wetland elevation adjustment over the Holocene at rates consistent with sea-level rise (e.g. Redfield, 1972; Woodroffe, 1990; Hashimoto et al., 2006) and through modelling studies that establish optimal rates of relative sea-level rise for marsh stability (Chmura et al., 1992; Morris et al., 2002; Bartholdy et al., 2010). There has been considerable discussion about the ability of wetland ecosystems to self adjust to perturbations (Orson et al., 1985; Reed, 1990, 1995, 2002; Morris et al., 2002).

    • Tagus estuary salt marshes feedback to sea level rise over a 40-year period: Insights from the application of geochemical indices

      2013, Ecological Indicators
      Citation Excerpt :

      However, rapid sea levels rise, as predicted in some climate change scenarios (IPCC, 2007) increases salt-marsh loss caused by the increased submersion periods since salt marsh productivity (organogenic input) is suppressed (Nyman et al., 1993, 1994). Recently, an increasing number of numerical modelling studies have appeared aimed at identifying and simulate the main processes of marsh elevation dynamics in response to changing sea level (Allen, 1990, 1995, 1997; Callaway et al., 1996; Chmura et al., 1992; Day et al., 1999; French, 1993; Krone, 1987; Morris et al., 2002; Pont et al., 2002; Rybczyk and Cahoon, 2002; Rybczyk et al., 1998; Temmerman et al., 2003a; Van Wijnen and Bakker, 2001). However, as stated by Allen (2000), these models are at a rather embryonic stage of development.

    • Modelling wetland surface elevation dynamics and its application to forecasting the effects of sea-level rise on estuarine wetlands

      2012, Ecological Modelling
      Citation Excerpt :

      The developed landscape model projected no net loss in wetland extent under moderate rates of sea-level rise (3.65 mm y−1) by 2050, thereby highlighting the capacity of natural ecosystems to self-regulate to perturbations. These findings are consistent with studies that have established wetland elevation adjustment over the Holocene at rates consistent with sea-level rise (e.g. Redfield, 1972; Woodroffe, 1990; Hashimoto et al., 2006) and through modelling studies that establish optimal rates of relative sea-level rise for marsh stability (Chmura et al., 1992; Morris et al., 2002; Bartholdy et al., 2010). There has been considerable discussion about the ability of wetland ecosystems to self adjust to perturbations (Orson et al., 1985; Reed, 1990, 1995, 2002; Morris et al., 2002).

    • Interannual (1999-2005) morphodynamic evolution of macro-tidal salt marshes in Mont-Saint-Michel Bay (France)

      2011, Continental Shelf Research
      Citation Excerpt :

      Much attention was given to the quantification of sedimentation rates, with particular focus on salt marsh development, maintenance, and long-term health in relation to a wide range of processes and forcing agents such as tides (frequency and duration of flooding, tidal range, variations in mean relative sea level), meteorologically induced parameters (storm frequency, ice rafting, rainfall), geomorphology and rheology (suspension concentration, exposure to wave attack, biodegradation, and compaction of surface sediment, subsidence), vegetation/sediment characteristics and human impact (e.g. Redfield, 1972; Pethick, 1981; Stumpf, 1983; Oenema and DeLaune, 1988; Reed, 1990; Anisfeld et al., 1999; Allen, 2000; Orson et al., 1998; Weinstein and Kreeger, 2000; Chmura et al., 2001; Morris et al., 2002; French, 2006). To this regard, a wide range of measuring techniques have been used, on different timescales ranging from one tidal cycle to several hundreds of years: sediment traps (e.g. Reed, 1989; French et al., 1995; Allen and Duffy, 1998a; Temmerman et al., 2003a), sedimentation/erosion bars, tables, and filters (e.g. Boumans and Day, 1993; Jigorel, 1996; Cahoon et al., 2000, 2002; Van Proosdij et al., 2006b; Marion et al., 2009), artificial or natural marker horizons (e.g. Richard, 1978; Allen and Rae, 1988; Stoddart et al., 1989; Wood et al., 1989; Cahoon et al., 1996; Goodman et al., 2007), ultrasonic altimetry (Desguée, 2008; Marion et al., 2009), dating of sediment cores using palaeoenvironmental, radiometric, or geochemical techniques (e.g. Oenema and DeLaune, 1988; Bricker-Urso et al., 1989; Berger and Caline, 1991; Dionne, 2004; Chmura and Hung, 2004; Bartholdy et al., 2004; Wang et al., 2005; Murphy and Voulgaris, 2006; Kolker et al., 2009), changes in ecosystem/vegetation (e.g. Boorman et al., 1998; Miller et al., 2001; Langlois et al., 2003), and modelling techniques (e.g. Pethick, 1981; Chmura et al., 1992; Brown et al., 2003; Temmerman et al., 2003b, 2004; French, 2006). Both inorganic matter (mineralogenic settings), accumulating trough allochthonous inputs of mineral sediments from tides and internal redistributions within the system, and autochthonous organic matter (organogenic settings) resulting from vegetation production, contribute to the accretion of the marsh surface (Dijkema, 1987; Stevenson et al., 1988; Allen, 2000; Turner et al., 2000; Chmura and Hung, 2004, French, 2006, Kolker et al., 2009).

    • Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration

      2009, Quaternary Science Reviews
      Citation Excerpt :

      These types of numerical models may prove helpful in determining the response of marshes to historical sea-level acceleration. Although a number of modeling approaches exist (e.g. Krone, 1987; Chmura et al., 1992; French, 1993; Allen, 1995; Callaway et al., 1996; Rybczyk et al., 1998; Van Wijnen and Bakker, 2001; Morris et al., 2002; Temmerman et al., 2003; Mudd et al., 2004; D'Alpaos et al., 2007; Kirwan and Murray, 2007, 2008a; Marani et al., 2007), direct comparisons between their results are lacking. Moreover, they focus exclusively on the response of marshes to present-day or future rates of sea-level rise, leaving the response of marshes to historical changes in sea level relatively unexplored.

    View all citing articles on Scopus
    1

    Present address: Department of Geography, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street W., Montreal, QC H3A 2K6, Canada.

    2

    Present address: Department of Geology, University of Utrecht, P.O. Box 80.021, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands.

    View full text