Abstract
The paper evaluates varying trends in ten climate variables, i.e., maximum temperature (Tmx), mean temperature (Tmp), minimum temperature (Tmn), diurnal temperature range (Dtr), total precipitation (Pre), cloud cover (Cld), wet day frequency (Wet), vapor pressure deficit (Vpd), vapor pressure (Vap), and potential evapotranspiration (Pet), and their impacts on wheat yields during Rabi cropping season in India from 1986 to 2015 using regression modeling and correlation analysis. There are three aspects in the present study, i.e., comprehensive coverage of climate variables, use of cropping season over weather classification, and investigation of India as study area because India accounts for ~1/6th of the world population and ~14% of global wheat production. We find that Tmx, Tmp, Tmn, Vpd, Pet are increasing in eight and Dtr and Cld in seven Indian states, whereas Wet and Vap are decreasing in five and Pre in four Indian states. Most climate variables in the present study negatively impact wheat yields. The climate trends drive total wheat yield losses up to ~309 kg/ha (~11%) over the study period. The regression models explain up to ~80% of wheat yield variability. The paper provides strong evidence that varying climate trends are negatively impacting wheat yield in India, thus presenting a global concern. Water supply and water demand are important climate variables, essential to be investigated in future studies. Using cropping season over standard weather classification provides more practical insight in the crop yield. This study emphasizes timely attention and intervention in agriculture practices leading to policy formation, amendments and practical execution.
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Acknowledgments
Anand Madhukar sincerely thank the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi) India for providing a research fellowship. Authors declare no conflict of interest or finance.
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Anand Madhukar sincerely thank the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi) India for providing a research fellowship.
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Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Formal analysis and investigation, Data Curation, Writing – Original draft preparation, Writing – review & editing, Visualization: Anand Madhukar; Supervision, Funding acquisition: Kavya Dashora; Validation, Supervision, Funding acquisition: Vivek Kumar.
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Highlights
• Climate trends in temperature and water variables are investigated.
• Climate trends vary per variable per region.
• Wheat is negatively sensitive to varying climate trends.
• Total wheat yield losses are up to ~309 kg/ha (~11%) during 1986–2015.
• Regression models explain up to ~80% of year-to-year variability in wheat yields.
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Madhukar, A., Dashora, K. & Kumar, V. Climate Trends in Temperature and Water Variables during Wheat Growing Season and Impact on Yield. Environ. Process. 8, 1047–1072 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-021-00526-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-021-00526-y