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Generating an agricultural risk map based on limited ecological information: A case study using Sicyos angulatus

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Abstract

In this study, we propose a method for estimating the risk of agricultural damage caused by an invasive species when species-specific information is lacking. We defined the “risk” as the product of the invasion probability and the area of potentially damaged crop for production. As a case study, we estimated the risk imposed by an invasive weed, Sicyos angulatus, based on simple cellular simulations and governmental data on the area of crop that could potentially be damaged in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Simulation results revealed that the current distribution range was sufficiently accurate for practical purposes. Using these results and records of crop areas, we present risk maps for S. angulatus in agricultural fields. Managers will be able to use these maps to rapidly establish a management plan with minimal cost. Our approach will be valuable for establishing a management plan before or during the early stages of invasion.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Dr. M. Akasaka for giving us good suggestions. Two anonymous reviewers gave us many constructive suggestions. We also would like to thank Dr. D. Sprague for checking English.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Institute for Agro-environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8604, Japan

    Takeshi Osawa

  2. Miyagi Prefectural Furukawa Agricultural Experiment Station, 88, Osaki-fukoku, Furukawa, Miyagi, 989-6227, Japan

    Shigenori Okawa & Shinichiro Ando

  3. NARO Agricultural Research Center, 3-1-1, Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0856, Japan

    Shunji Kurokawa

Authors
  1. Takeshi Osawa
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  2. Shigenori Okawa
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  3. Shunji Kurokawa
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  4. Shinichiro Ando
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Correspondence to Takeshi Osawa.

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Osawa, T., Okawa, S., Kurokawa, S. et al. Generating an agricultural risk map based on limited ecological information: A case study using Sicyos angulatus . Ambio 45, 895–903 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0782-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0782-9

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