Abstract
For proposed pedestrian protection systems, evaluation of safety benefits is required as an integral part of the design and optimization phases. Stochastic (“Monte-Carlo”) simulation techniques are currently being utilized to predict safety benefits in terms of physics; however, converting physics to human benefits requires injury and fatality risk models. To this end, multivariate predictive models for pedestrian fatalities and for injury severity on the ISS scale are estimated using the US Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS). In addition to collision speed, which is the most important single explanatory variable, age, pedestrian physiological characteristics and vehicle parameters are significant multivariate predictors. The in-sample as well as out-of-sample predictive quality is remarkably high. The models are intended to provide an interface to large-scale stochastic simulation and virtual testing of proposed vehicle-based active safety systems for pedestrian protection.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
AAAM: The Abbreviated Injury Scale (1990 revision). Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, 1990.
Baker, S.P., O’Neill, B.: The injury severity score: an update. J. Trauma 16(11), 882–885 (1976)
Baker, S.P., O’Neill, B., Haddon Jr., W., Long, W.B.: The injury severity score: a method for describing patients with multiple injuries and evaluating emergency care. J. Trauma 14(3), 187–196 (1974)
Dahdah, S.: Modeling an infrastructure safety rating for vulnerable road users in developing countries. Dissertation, The George Washington University, 2008.
Ebner, A., Samaha, R.R., Scullion, P., Helmer, T.: Methodology for the assessment and evaluation of active safety systems using scenarios: application to preventive pedestrian protection. Proceedings of the International Research Council On Biomechanics Of Injury (IRCOBI), 155–168, 2010.
Ebner, A., Samaha, R.R., Scullion, P., Helmer, T.: Methodology for the development and evaluation of active safety systems using reference scenarios. Proceedings of the 17th ITS World Congress, 2010.
Gabler, C., Digges, K., Fildes, B., Sparke, L.: Side impact injury risk for belted far side passenger vehicle occupants. SAE transactions 114(6), 34–42 (2005)
Hakkert, A.S., Gitelman, V., Vis, M.A.: Road Safety Performance Indicators: Theory., Deliverable D3.6 of the EU FP6 project SafetyNet, 2007.
Hannawald, L., Kauer, F.: Equal Effectiveness Study On Pedestrian Protection. Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, 2004.
Helmer, T., Scullion, P., Samaha, R.R., Ebner, A., Kates, R.: Predicting the injury severity of pedestrians in frontal car crashes based on empirical, in-depth accident data. Proceedings of the 17th ITS World Congress, 2010.
Helmer, T., Samaha, R.R., Scullion, P., Ebner, A., Kates, R.: Injury risk to specific body regions of pedestrians in frontal car crashes modeled by empirical, in-depth accident data. Proceedings of the 54th Stapp Car Crash Conference, 2010.
Helmer, T., Samaha, R.R., Scullion, P., Ebner, A., Kates, R.: Kinematical, physiological, and vehicle-related influences on pedestrian injury severity in frontal car crashes: multivariate analysis and cross-validation. Proceedings of the International Research Council On Biomechanics Of Injury (IRCOBI), 181–198, 2010.
Henary, B.Y., Ivarsson, B.J., Crandall, J.R.: The influence of age on the morbidity and mortality of pedestrian victims. Traffic Inj. Prev. 7, 182–190 (2006)
Henary, B.Y., Crandall, J., Bhalla, K., Mock, C.N., Roudsari, B.S.: Child and adult pedestrian impact: The influence of vehicle type on injury severity. 47th Annual Conference of the Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, 2003.
Inomata, Y., Iwai, N., Maeda, Y., Kobayashi, S., Okuyama, H., Takahashi, N.: Development Of The Pop-up Engine Hood For Pedestrian Head Protection. 21st International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV 2009), 09–0067, 2009.
Isenberg, R.A., Chidester, A.B., Mavros, S.: Update On The Pedestrian Crash Data Study. 16th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV), 1998.
Jarrett, K.J., Saul, R.A.: Pedestrian Injury-Analysis Of The PCDS Field Collision Data. 16th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV 1998), 1998.
Kates, R., Jung, O., Helmer, T., Ebner, A., Gruber, C., Kompass, K.: Virtual optimization of pedestrian protection systems in intelligent vehicles by stochastic simulation techniques. Erprobung und Simulation in der Fahrzeugentwicklung, 2010.
Kerrigan, J.R., Rudd, R., Subit, D., Untaroiu, C.D., Crandall, J.R.: Pedestrian Lower Extremity Response and Injury: A Small Sedan vs. A Large SUV. SAE Technical paper 2008-01-1245, 2008.
Kühn, M., Fröming, R., Schindler, V.: Fußgängerschutz - Unfallgeschehen, Fahrzeuggestaltung, Testverfahren. Springer, Berlin (2005)
Kompass, K., Oberschaetzl, M., Zollner, F., Kates, R.: Continuous, after-sales analysis of driver assistance systems. 14th ITS World Congress, 2007.
Lefler, D.E., Gabler, H.C.: The emerging threat of light truck impacts with pedestrians. SAE Technical paper 2001-06-0082, 2001.
Longhitano, D., Henary, B., Bhalla, K., Ivarsson, J., Crandall, J.: Influence of Vehicle Body Type on Pedestrian Injury Distribution. SAE Technical paper 2005-01-1876, 2005.
Nations, United: Global Technical Rule No. 9 - Pedestrian Safety. ECE/TRANS/180/Add.9. United Nations, 2009.
NCAP, Euro: European New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP) Pedestrian Testing Protocol. Version 5.1. www.euroncap.com, 2010.
Nogueira, L.S., Domingues, C.A., Campos, M.A., Sousa, R.M.C.: Ten years of new injury severity score (NISS): is it a possible change? Rev Latino-am Enfermagem 16(2), 314–319 (2008)
Ogden, C.L., Fryar, C.D., Carroll, M.D., Flegal, K.M.: Mean body weight, height, and body mass index, United States 1960–2002. Advance data from vital and health statistics 347, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, Maryland, 2004.
Prange, M., Heller, M., Watson, H., Iyer, M., Ivarsson, B.J., Fisher, J.: Age Effects on Injury Patterns in Pedestrian Crashes. SAE Technical paper 2010-01-1164, 2010.
Rosen, E., Sander, U.: Pedestrian fatality risk as a function of car impact speed. Accid. Anal. Prev. 41, 536–542 (2009)
Roudsari, B.S., Mock, C.N., Kaufman, R.: An evaluation of the association between vehicle type and the source and severity of pedestrian injuries. Traffic Inj. Prev. 6, 185–192 (2005)
Simms, C.K., Wood, D.P.: Pedestrian risk from cars and sport utility vehicles – a comparative analytical study. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers 220, 1085–1100 (2006)
States, J.D., Huelke, D.F.: The Abbreviated Injury Scale. 1980 Revision. American Association for Automotive Medicine (AAAM), 1980.
States, J.D.: Abbreviated and the Comprehensive Research Injury Scales. Proceedings of Thirteenth Stapp Car Crash Conference, December 2–4, 1969, 13, 282–294, New York, 1969. Society of Automotive Engineers.
Stevenson, M., Segui-Gomez, M., Lescohier, I., Di Scala, C., McDonald-Smith, G.: An overview of the injury severity score and the new injury severity score. Inj. Prev. 7, 10–13 (2001)
UMTRI: 1994–1998 NASS Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS) Codebook. Version 03Mar01. UMTRI Transportation Data Center, 2005.
Union, Europäische: Verordnung (EG) Nr. 78/2009. Amtsblatt der Europäischen Union, 2009.
Wisselmann, D., Gresser, K., Hopstock, M., Huber, W.: Präventiver statt passiver Fußgängerschutz. AAET 2009 - Automatisierungssysteme, Assistenzsysteme und eingebettete Systeme für Transportmittel, 60–76. Gesamtzentrum für Verkehr Braunschweig e.V., 2009.
Acknowledgements
TH gratefully acknowledges a fellowship of the German Academic Exchange Service.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Helmer, T., Scullion, P., Samaha, R.R. et al. Predicting the Injury Severity of Pedestrians in Frontal Vehicle Crashes based on Empirical, In-depth Accident Data. Int. J. ITS Res. 9, 139–151 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13177-011-0036-y
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13177-011-0036-y