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Landscape Scale Modeling of the Potential Effect of Groundwater-level Declines on Forested Wetlands in the New Jersey Pinelands

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Abstract

The objective of the study, which is a component of a comprehensive evaluation of the hydrologic and ecological effects of groundwater pumping from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer, was to apply empirically determined hydrology-vegetation models to develop geographic information system (GIS)-based landscape models for three study basins in the New Jersey Pinelands. The wetland- indicator modeling suggests that the area dominated by wetland species will decline in area with increased groundwater withdrawal due to the predicted drop in water table. While some patterns revealed in the results are reasonably consistent across basins, other changes are a function of the unique topographic form and hydrologic characteristics of a particular basin. The results suggest that cedar and hardwood swamps which are at the wetter end of the water table gradient will show the greatest percent declines in area. The landscape modeling suggests that at the higher levels of groundwater withdrawal the decline of wetland area will be especially severe in the upper headwaters of the basins, and that there will be ‘retreat’ of existing wetlands to a narrower streamside corridor. The landscape modeling also suggests that there will be a change in the broader landscape pattern with a simplification of the wetland mosaic with fewer patches.

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Acknowledgments

Funding for this study was provided through the Water Supply Fund in accordance with New Jersey Public Law 2001, Chapter 165. We gratefully acknowledge the close collaboration with the various project partners at the Pinelands Commission, including Kim Laidig, Allison Brown, Robert Zampella, John Bunnell, Nick Procopio, and at the U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Center including Robert Nicholson and Manny Charles.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modelling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Yangjian Zhang

  2. Walton Center for Remote Sensing & Spatial Analysis, Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA

    Yangjian Zhang, Zewei Miao, John Bognar & Richard G. Lathrop Jr

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  1. Yangjian Zhang
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  2. Zewei Miao
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  3. John Bognar
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  4. Richard G. Lathrop Jr
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Correspondence to Richard G. Lathrop Jr.

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Zhang, Y., Miao, Z., Bognar, J. et al. Landscape Scale Modeling of the Potential Effect of Groundwater-level Declines on Forested Wetlands in the New Jersey Pinelands. Wetlands 31, 1131–1142 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-011-0223-2

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