Abstract
Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have been considered as the future vision for the automotive industry. An increasing number of concepts and prototypes have been introduced in the last decade. In parallel with the technological development, recent discussions about global warming and climate change bring public support for emission free vehicles. Despite of the advancements and support, the speed of introduction of FCEVs is still not at the desirable levels. From a transition management perspective, the present paper seeks to answer the underlying factors behind the implementation of the FCEVs. The discussion goes beyond a technical one to cover broad factors and interests of stakeholders with an ‘eagle-eye view’. Following a discussion the key drivers of change for the FCEV sector and wild cards with disruptive effects, the paper proposes a strategic roadmap template to set an agenda for a successful transition towards FCEVs.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
https://vtnews.vt.edu/articles/2015/04/040715-cals-hydrogen.html (Last accessed on February 17, 2017)
References
Amanatidou, E., Butter, M., Carabias, V., Konnola, T., Leis, M., Saritas, O., Schaper-Rinkel, P., & van Rij, V. (2012). On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues. Science and Public Policy, 39(2), 208–221.
Aydogdu, A., Burmaoglu, S., Saritas, O., & Cakir, S. (2017). A nanotechnology roadmapping study for the Turkish defense industry. Foresight, 19(4), 354–375.
Galvin, R. (1998). Science roadmaps. Science, 280(5365), 803.
Global EV Outlook (2013). Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape by 2020. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook_2013.pdf (Last accessed on 17 Feb 2017).
Hasegava, T. (2013). Presentation on FCEV market development at Nissan. Moscow: Higher School of Economics.
Hyytinen, K., & Toivonen, M. (2015). Future energy services: Empowering local communities and citizens. Foresight, 17(4), 349–364.
Miles, I. and Saritas, O. (2012). The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons, vol. 14, issue 6, pp. 530–545.
Miles, I., Saritas, O., & Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for science, Technology and Innovation. Switzerland: Springer International Publishing.
Pettigrew, A. M. (1987). Context and action in the transformation of the firm. Journal of Management Studies, 24(6), 649–670.
Ranjbar, M. S., & Tavakoli, G. R. (2015). Toward an inclusive understanding of technology intelligence: A literature review. Foresight, 17(3), 240–256.
Rotmans, J., Kemp, R., & van Asselt, M. (2001). More evolution than revolution: Transition management in public policy. Foresight, 3(1), 15–31.
Saritas, O. (2013). Systemic foresight methodology. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Eds.), Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future: Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies (pp. 83–117). Berlin: Springer Verlag.
Saritas, O., & Aylen, J. (2010). Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(7), 1061–1075.
Saritas, O., Pace, L. A., & Stalpers, S. I. P. (2013). Stakeholder participation and dialogue in foresight. In K. Borch, S. M. Dingli, & M. S. Jorgensen (Eds.), Participation and interaction in foresight: Dialogue, dissemination and visions (pp. 35–69). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar publishing.
Saritas, O., & Miles, I. (2012). Scan-4-light: A searchlight function horizon scanning and trend monitoring project. Foresight, 14(6), 489–510.
Saritas, O., & Smith, J. E. (2011). The big-picture – Trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. Futures, 43(3), 292–312.
Saritas, O., Taymaz, E., & Tumer, T. (2007). Vision 2023: Turkey’s national technology foresight program: A contextualist analysis and discussion. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(8), 1374–1393.
Schippl, J. (2016). Assessing the desirability and feasibility of scenarios on eco-efficient transport: A heuristic for efficient stakeholder involvement during foresight processes. Foresight, 18(1), 41–58.
Thomas, M. T. (2015). Role of strategy in value capture from foresight exercises: Firms’ responsiveness to long term trends in the passenger car industry. Foresight, 17(6), 574–587.
UK H2 Mobility Report (2013). Retrieved from https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/192440/13-799-uk-h2-mobility-phase-1-results.pdf (Last accessed on 17 Feb 2017).
US Department of Energy (2015a). Hydrogen Production, 2015 Production Section. Retrieved from https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/06/f23/fcto_myrdd_production.pdf (Last accessed on 17 Feb 2017).
US Department of Energy (2015b). Fuel cell technologies market report 2015. Washington. Retrieved from https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/10/f33/fcto_2015_market_report.pdf (Last accessed on 17 Feb 2017).
Acknowledgements
This article was produced within the framework of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and supported within the framework of a subsidy by the Russian Academic Excellence Project ‘5-100’.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Saritas, O., Meissner, D. & Sokolov, A. A Transition Management Roadmap for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs). J Knowl Econ 10, 1183–1203 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-018-0523-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-018-0523-3