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A flexible framework for modeling customer damage functions for power outages

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Abstract

This paper develops a flexible method for estimating the customer cost of a power outage. We add to the current body of literature by outlining a framework which properly accounts for the effects of outage duration. We begin by separating costs into categories depending on whether the cost varies with outage duration and whether the cost is due to perishable inventory. We derive useful functional forms for each cost category and discuss how parameters vary by load type and outage characteristics. We derive outage cost estimates for an unexpected loss of power to both an example manufacturing plant and an example fire station. The framework described in this paper can easily be employed to model outage costs for a wide range of specific operating conditions.

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Notes

  1. Estimates are 0.02 $/kW of peak load for agriculture and 81.47 $/kW of peak load for oil and gas extraction. Prices are measured in 1996 dollars.

  2. Of the 29 survey studies found during the literature review, the maximum outage duration ranges between 1 and 4 h for 7 studies, between 5 and 8 h for 11 studies, between 9 and 15 h for 5 studies and between 16 and 24 for the remaining 6 studies.

  3. This is assuming a scenario where fuel resupply is unavailable.

  4. The Annual Survey of Manufacturers can be obtained from https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/asm/data.html

  5. Fixed costs are estimated at $6.80 per MWh of annual load.

  6. Average hourly revenue for U.S. manufacturers in 2016 was $6866 per MWh of load.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, USA

    Sean Ericson & Lars Lisell

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  1. Sean Ericson
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  2. Lars Lisell
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Correspondence to Sean Ericson.

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Ericson, S., Lisell, L. A flexible framework for modeling customer damage functions for power outages. Energy Syst 11, 95–111 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-018-0314-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-018-0314-8

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