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Evaluation of climate change impacts on the optimal operation of multipurpose reservoir systems using cuckoo search algorithm

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Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climate change on the multipurpose optimal operation of the reservoir systems of Voshmgir and Golestan dams located in the Gorganroud catchment, Iran, using cuckoo search algorithm. In this study, the statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 climate model was used with the help of SDSM4.2 software under three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. By averaging the results of these three scenarios, a new scenario called the average scenario was developed to achieve a more realistic estimate, and the results were compared with the other three scenarios in the three time period from 2011 to 2099. Then, the second-order neuro-fuzzy model was used to simulate the inlet runoff to the Voshmgir and Golestan dams, and finally the cuckoo search algorithm was used to optimize the multipurpose operation of the reservoir systems with the aim of meeting downstream water needs and controlling probable floods. According to the results, an increase in average monthly temperature for minimum and maximum temperatures from 0.6 to 3.2 °C and variations in average monthly rainfall from values of at least − 18.4% to a maximum of – 43.1% can be probable in all scenarios during the three forecast periods.

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The funding sources had no involvement in the study design, collection, analysis or interpretation of data, writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

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  1. Expert in Water Resources Management, Golestan Regional Water Company, Gorgan, Iran

    AliReza Donyaii

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  1. AliReza Donyaii
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Correspondence to AliReza Donyaii.

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Donyaii, A. Evaluation of climate change impacts on the optimal operation of multipurpose reservoir systems using cuckoo search algorithm. Environ Earth Sci 80, 663 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09951-6

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