Estimating geothermal resources in Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China, using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Geothermal energy is being widely exploited as a clean and renewable energy resource, and accurate assessments of potential resources can help us make reasonable planning and utilization of them. The volumetric method has been widely used in assessing geothermal resources owing to its simplicity and convenience. However, this method does not take into account the uncertainties of the input parameters involved, instead assigning a series of specific parameter values for each reservoir. Here, a Monte Carlo simulation approach was used to reduce these uncertainties while applying the volumetric method to estimate the geothermal resources of Bohai Bay Basin in eastern China. The basin contains two main types of thermal reservoirs: sandstone and carbonate. In applying Monte Carlo analysis to these reservoirs, the triangular and uniform distribution models for input parameters were used, and simulations were run with 1000–5000 iterations. Results indicate capacities of (1.182–2.283) × 10²¹ J (most likely 1.74 × 10²¹ J) and (1.299–2.546) × 10²¹ J (most likely 1.937 × 10²¹ J) for the Minghuazhen and Guantao sandstone reservoirs, respectively, and a capacity of (0.608–1.254) × 10²¹ J (most likely 8.450 × 10²⁰ J) for the carbonate reservoir, finally, a range value (3.466–5.553) × 10²¹ J (most likely 4.400× 10²¹ J) for the whole Bohai Bay Basin.