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Factors triggering landslide occurrence on the Zemun loess plateau, Belgrade area, Serbia

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Abstract

Among the numerous factors that trigger landslide events, the anthropogenic impact caused by inadequate planning and faulty land use in urban areas is increasing. The Zemun settlement on the northern outskirts of Belgrade has experienced a number of landslides in the last three decades, endangering buildings and roads, and claiming human lives, particularly in the case of the 2010/2011 landslides. Selected meteorological parameters were used to calculate rainfall erosivity indices such as Precipitation Concentration Index and Modified Fournier Index over the period 1991–2015. Drought indices, Lang aridity index and Palfai Drought Index were calculated as well. Mann–Kendall trend test was applied to identify potential rising and/or declining trends both in meteorological parameters and calculated indices. Trend analysis of the annual and seasonal scales yielded a statistically significant trend in the spring time series. Stable arid and pronounced drought conditions were recorded. The modified Fournier index based on monthly mean values yields moderate aggressiveness, with several extreme values indicating very high erosivity classes, especially for 2010/2011. The geological substrate is predominantly loess and hence highly susceptible to erosion and slope failure when climatological conditions are suitable. Accelerated urbanization at the end of the last century reduced vegetation cover, intensified pressure on the vertical loess slope, and lacked suitable rain drainage systems so that surface-water runoff was directed into the porous loess, thereby endangering slope stability. We proposed a geomorphic model to describe the nature of the erosional processes on the loess cliffs of the Zemun loess plateau. Results from this study have implications for mitigation strategies.

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Fig. 1

(Source: ESRI)

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(modified after Marković et al. 2004, 2014, 2015)

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After Dimitrijević et al. (1985a, b)

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(modified after Antoine et al. 2009; Marković et al. 2009, 2015; Gavrilović et al. submitted)

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by Project 176020 of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development and by Project 142-451-2511/2017-02 of the Provincial Secretariat for Higher Education and Scientific Research, Vojvodina Province and by Project “Development of master curricula for natural disasters risk management in Western Balkan countries” (NatRisk WeB, no. 573806-EPP-1-2016-1-RS-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP). Part of the research was supported by the HUSRB/1602/11/0057—WATER@RISK—Improvement of drought and excess water monitoring for supporting water management and mitigation of risks related to extreme weather conditions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia

    Tin Lukić, Dajana Bjelajac, Slobodan B. Marković, Biljana Basarin, Tanja Micić & Milivoj B. Gavrilov

  2. Research Group for Terrestrial Palaeoclimates, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner-Weg 1, 55128, Mainz, Germany

    Kathryn E. Fitzsimmons

  3. Department of Human Evolution, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Deutscher Platz 6, 04103, Leipzig, Germany

    Kathryn E. Fitzsimmons

  4. Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, Cara Dušana 196, Zemun, 11080, Serbia

    Dragan Mlađan & Nevenka Knežević-Lukić

  5. Department of Geography, Michigan State University, 128 Geography Building, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA

    Randall J. Schaetzl

  6. Department of Geospatial Bases of Environment, Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia

    Tin Lukić, Miško Milanović, Miroljub Milinčić & Ivan Samardžić

  7. Department of Physical Geography and Geoinformatics, University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary

    György Sipos & Gábor Mezősi

  8. Institute of Geography, Palacky University, Olomouc, Czech Republic

    Aleš Létal

Authors
  1. Tin Lukić
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  2. Dajana Bjelajac
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  3. Kathryn E. Fitzsimmons
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  4. Slobodan B. Marković
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  5. Biljana Basarin
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  6. Dragan Mlađan
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  7. Tanja Micić
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  8. Randall J. Schaetzl
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  9. Milivoj B. Gavrilov
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  10. Miško Milanović
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  11. György Sipos
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  12. Gábor Mezősi
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  13. Nevenka Knežević-Lukić
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  14. Miroljub Milinčić
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  15. Aleš Létal
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  16. Ivan Samardžić
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tin Lukić.

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Lukić, T., Bjelajac, D., Fitzsimmons, K.E. et al. Factors triggering landslide occurrence on the Zemun loess plateau, Belgrade area, Serbia. Environ Earth Sci 77, 519 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7712-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7712-z

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