Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Modeling water requirements of major crops and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Environmental Earth Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most important food production bases in China. However, its agriculture water resources are threatened by climate change. In this paper, the CROPWAT model is used to evaluate crop water requirement (CWR), crop green water requirement (CGWR), and crop blue water requirement (CBWR) for main crops in NCP (winter wheat, summer maize, cotton, millet, and soybean) with a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minute from 1961 to 2010. Their responses to future climate changes are investigated. The results show that the mean annual total CWR of the main crops during growing periods amounted to 114.68 km3 a−1 in the past 50 years. More than 72 % of CWR to support NCP crop production is green water. The spatial distributions of CWR, CGWR, and CBWR are closely related to the planting areas and irrigation availability. Summer maize, millet, and soybean are high CGWR crops with proportions of above 84 %, while the lowest CGWR proportion is in winter wheat, 58.89 %. For climate change impacts in future, holding the crop planting system and irrigation conditions unchanged, it is projected that the total CWR in 2030s will require approximately 8.75–11.25 km3 a−1 additional water. Results show that the CWR increase in 2030s is mainly due to the increase in temperature. Under the projected temperature in 2030s and the current rainfall scenario, total CWR, CGWR, and CBWR increments were 8.58, 1.76, and 6.82 km3 a−1, respectively. Nearly 80 % of the CWR increment is from the increase in CBWR. Therefore, agricultural water shortage crisis will further aggravate under future climate change scenarios in NCP, and effective water-saving measures must be taken to mitigate the negative effects of climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. FAO, Rome

  • Antonellini M, Dentinho T, Khattabi A, Masson E, Mollema PN, Silva V, Silveira P (2014) An integrated methodology to assess future water resources under land use and climate change: an application to the Tahadart drainage basin (Morocco). Environ Earth Sci 71(4):1839–1853

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen YM, Guo GS (1993) A contour map book of main crops water requirement in China. Beijing: China Agriculture Science Press. ISBN: 7800264041/9787800264047

  • Chen C, Wang EL, Yu Q (2010) Modelling the effects of climate variability and water management on crop water productivity and water balance in the North China Plain. Agric Water Manage 97(8):1175–1184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen C, Hagemann S, Liu J (2014) Assessment of impact of climate change on the blue and green water resources in large river basins in China. Environ Earth Sci. doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3782-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Chowdhury S, Al-Zahrani M, Abbas A (2013) Implications of climate change on crop water requirements in arid region: an example of Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia. J King Saud Univ Eng Sci. 10.1016/j.jksues.2013.11.001

  • Conrad C, Rahmann M, Machwitz M, Stulina G, Paeth H, Dech S (2013) Satellite based calculation of spatially distributed crop water requirements for cotton and wheat cultivation in Fergana Valley, Uzbekistan. Global Planet Change 110:88–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding YH, Ren GY, Shi GY, Gong P, Zheng XH, Zhai PM, Zhang DE, Zhao ZC, Wang ZW, Wang HJ, Luo Y, Chen DL, Gao XJ, Dai XS (2006) National assessment report of climate change (I): climate change in China and its future trend. Adv Clim Change Res 2:3–8. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2006.01.001 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Duan AW (2004) Irrigation water quota of main crops in the northern areas. Beijing: China Agriculture Science Press. ISBN: 7801676815/9787801676818

  • Fader M, Gerten D, Thammer M, Heinke J, Lotze-Campen H, Lucht W, Cramer W (2011) Internal and external green-blue agricultural water footprints of nations, and related water and land savings through trade. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:1641–1660

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Falkenmark M (2003) Freshwater as shared between society and ecosystems: From divided approaches to integrated challenges. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 358(1440):2037–2049

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan L, Lu CH, Yang B, Chen Z (2012) Long-term trends of precipitation in the North China Plain. J Geogr Sci 22(6):989–1001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2009) CROPWAT 8.0 Software: A Computer Program for Irrigation Planning and Management. Land and Water Division of FAO; Available at: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/infores_databases_cropwat.html

  • George BA, Shende SA, Raghuwanshi NS (2000) Development and testing of an irrigation scheduling model. Agric Water Manage 46(2):121–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo RP, Lin ZH, Mo XG, Yang CL (2010) Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain. Agric Water Manage 97(8):1185–1194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoff H, Falkenmark M, Gerten D, Gordon L, Karlberg L, Rocksstroem J (2010) Greening the global water system. J Hydrol 384:177–186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis [M/OL]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Iqbal MA, Shen YJ, Stricevic R, Pei HW, Sun HY, Amiri E, Penas A, Rio SD (2014) Evaluation of the FAO AquaCrop model for winter wheat on the North China Plain under deficit irrigation from field experiment to regional yield simulation. Agric Water Manage 135:61–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li KN, Yang XG, Liu ZJ, Zhang TY, Lu S, Liu Y (2014) Low yield gap of winter wheat in the North China Plain. Eur J Agron 59:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu XY, Lin ED (2004) Impact of climate change on water requirement of main crops in North China. SHUILI XUEBAO 2:77–87 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Savenije HHG (2008) Food consumption patterns and their effect on water requirement in China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 12:887–898

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Yang H (2010) Spatially explicit assessment of global consumptive water uses in cropland: Green and blue water. J Hydrol 384:187–197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu JG, Wiberg D, Zehnder AJB, Yang H (2007) Modeling the role of irrigation in winter wheat yield, crop water productivity, and production in China. Irrig Sci 26:21–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Zehnder AJB, Yang H (2009) Global consumptive water use for crop production: the importance of green water and virtual water. Water Resour Res 45(5):W05428. 10.1029/2007WR006051

  • Liu J, Folberth C, Yang H, Röckström J, Abbaspour K, Zehnder AJB (2013) A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use. PLoS One 8(2):e57750. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0057750

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu SL, Wu BF, Wei YP, Yan N, Wang H, Guo SY (2015) Quantifying impacts of climate variability and human activities on the hydrological system of the Haihe River Basin, China. Environ Earth Sci 73:1491–1503. doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3799-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mimi ZA, Jamous SA (2010) Climate change and agricultural water demand: impacts and adaptations. Afr J Environ Sci Technol 4(4):183–191

    Google Scholar 

  • Mo X, Liu S, Lin Z, Xu Y, Xiang Y, Mc Vicar TR (2005) Prediction of crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency with a SVAT-crop growth model using remotely sensed data on the North China Plain. Ecol Model 183:301–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mo XG, Liu SX, Lin ZH, Guo RP (2009) Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain. Agr Ecosyst Environ 134:67–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mo XG, Guo RP, Liu SX, Lin ZH, Hu S (2013) Impacts of climate change on crop evapotranspiration with ensemble GCM projections in the North China Plain. Clim Change 120:299–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Monfreda C, Ramankutty N, Foley JA (2008) Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000. Global Biogeochem Cy 22, GB1022, doi:10.1029/2007GB002947

  • Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nazeer M (2009) Simulation of maize crop under irrigated and rainfed conditions with CROPWAT model. ARPN J Agric Biol Sci 4(2):68–73

    Google Scholar 

  • Oki T, Kanae S (2006) Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science 313(5790):1068–1072

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piao SL, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen ZH, Peng SS, Li JS, Zhou LP, Liu HY, Ma YC, Ding YH, Friedlingstein P, Liu CZ, Tan K, Yu YQ, Zhang TY, Fang JY (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467(7311):43–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prăvălie R, Sĭrodoev I, Patriche CV, Bandoc G, Peptenatu D (2014) The analysis of the relationship between climatic water deficit and corn agricultural productivity in the dobroger plateau. Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences 9(4):201–214

    Google Scholar 

  • Qin DH, Stocker T, 259 Authors and TSU (Bern & Beijing). 2014. Highlights of the IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report. Adv Clim Change Res 10(1): 1-6. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.01.001(in Chinese)

  • Rost S, Gerten D, Bondeau A, Lucht W, Rohwer J, Schaphoff S (2008) Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resour Res 44:W09405. doi:10.1029/2007WR006331

    Google Scholar 

  • Samper J, Li Y, Pisani B (2015) An evaluation of climate change impacts on groundwater flow in the Plana de La Galera and Tortosa alluvial aquifers (Spain). Environ Earth Sci 73:2595–2608. doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3734-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi YL (2008) Study on Reasonable Allocation of Agricultural Resource and Improvement of the Comprehensive Productivity. China Agricultural Press, BeiJing. ISBN 9787109126169

    Google Scholar 

  • Siebert S, Döll P, Feick S, Hoogeveen J, and Frenken K (2007) Global Map of Irrigation Areas version 4.0.1. Johann Wolfgang Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome

  • Stancalie G, Marica A, Toulios L (2010) Using earth observation data and CROPWAT model to estimate the actual crop evapotranspiration. Phys Chem Earth 35(1–2):25–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thevs N, Ovezmuradov K, Zanjani LV, Zerbe S (2015) Water consumption of agriculture and natural ecosystems at the Amu Darya in Lebap Province, Turkmenistan. Environ Earth Sci 73:731–741

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomson AM, Izaurralde RC, Rosenberg NJ, He X (2006) Climate change impacts on agriculture and soil carbon sequestration potential in the Huang-Hai Plain of China. Agr Ecosyst Environ 114(2–4):195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Todorovic M (2005) Crop Water Requirements. Water Encycl 3:557–558. doi:10.1002/047147844X.aw59

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang WJ, Feng H (2012) Water requirement and irrigation systems of winter wheat: CROPWAT-DSSAT model solution in Guanzhong District, Chinese. J Eco-Agric 20(6):795–802

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang HX, Zhang L, Dawas WR, Liu CM (2001) Improving water use efficiency of irrigated crops in the North China Plain-measurements and modeling. Agric Water Manage 48(2):151–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Wang EL, Feng LP, Yin H, Yu WD (2013) Phenological trends of winter wheat in response to varietal and temperature changes in the North China Plain. Field Crops Res 144:135–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xia J, Qiu B, Li YY (2012) Water resources vulnerability and adaptive management in the Huang, Huai and Hai river basins of China. Water Int 37:523–536

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiao DP, Tao FL (2014) Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades. Eur J Agron 52:112–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yao WY, Xu JX (2013) Impact of human activity and climate change on suspended sediment load: the upper Yellow River, China. Environ Earth Sci 70:1389–1403. doi:10.1007/s12665-013-2223-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zang C, Liu J, van der Velde M, Fraxner F (2012) Assessment of spatial and temporal patterns of green and blue water flows under natural conditions in inland river basins in northwest China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16(8):2859–2870

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zang C, Liu J, Jiang L, Gerten D (2013) Impacts of human activities and climate variability on green and blue water flows in the Heihe river basin in Northwest China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 10:9477–9504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang H, Wang X, You M, Liu C (1999) Water-yield relations and water-use efficiency of winter wheat in the North China Plain. Irrig Sci 19:37–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang GH, Lian YL, Liu CH, Yan MJ, Wang JZ (2011) Situation and Origin of Water Resources in Short Supply in North China Plain. J Earth Sci Environ 33(2):172–176 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang WB, Zha XC, Li JX, Liang W, Ma YG, Fan DM, Li S (2014) Spatiotemporal Change of Blue Water and Green Water Resources in the Headwater of Yellow River Basin, China. Water Resour Manage 28:4715–4732

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao XN, Hu KL, Stahr K (2013) Simulation of SOC content and storage under different irrigation, fertilization and tillage conditions using EPIC model in the North China Plain. Soil Tillage Res 130:128–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou H, Zhang X, Xu H, Ling H, Yu P (2012) Influence of climate change and human activities on Tarim River runoffs in China over the past half century. Environ Earth Sci 67(1):231–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zinyengere N, Crespo O, Hachigonta S, Tadross M (2014) Local impacts of climate change and agronomic practices on dry land crops in Southern Africa. Agr Ecosyst Environ 197:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the National Climate Center for providing the data of their simulations by regional climate model. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51279140) and Special Funds for “Tai Shan Scholar” Construction.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, People’s Republic of China

    Jun Xia

  2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, People’s Republic of China

    Xinping Luo & Jun Xia

  3. Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag), Ueberlandstrasse133, P.O. Box 611, 8600, Duebendorf, Switzerland

    Hong Yang

Authors
  1. Xinping Luo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jun Xia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Hong Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jun Xia.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Luo, X., Xia, J. & Yang, H. Modeling water requirements of major crops and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain. Environ Earth Sci 74, 3531–3541 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-4400-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-4400-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation