Longitudinal Data Analysis with Event Time as a Covariate

Abstract

We consider the estimation of a nonparametric smooth function of some event time in a semiparametric mixed effects model from repeatedly measured data when the event time is subject to right censoring. The within-subject correlation is captured by both cross-sectional and time-dependent random effects, where the latter is modeled by a nonhomogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic process. When the censoring probability depends on other variables in the model, which often happens in practice, the event time data are not missing completely at random. Hence, the complete case analysis by eliminating all the censored observations may yield biased estimates of the regression parameters including the smooth function of the event time, and is less efficient. To remedy, we derive the likelihood function for the observed data by modeling the event time distribution given other covariates. We propose a two-stage pseudo-likelihood approach for the estimation of model parameters by first plugging an estimator of the conditional event time distribution into the likelihood and then maximizing the resulting pseudo-likelihood function. Empirical evaluation shows that the proposed method yields negligible biases while significantly reduces the estimation variability. This research is motivated by the project of hormone profile estimation around age at the final menstrual period for the cohort of women in the Michigan Bone Health and Metabolism Study.